Outlook

We are currently in the process of making some major changes so the posting may fall off a bit over the next month or two.

Poll Results: Opening Day Ace

Who Will Be #1 In The Rotation On Opening Day?

Erik Bedard: 8 votes (19%)

Felix Hernandez: 32 votes (78%)

Johan Santana: 1 vote (2%)

Other: 0 votes (0%)


Pole closed on 12/24/07

41 votes in only 8 days. I like.

Christmas Wish Lists

As has been done by other blogs, I feel the Mariners players have certain christmas gifts that must be given. Sorry for belating it, guys. Let's start from the top...

Ichiro - Year supply of turtlenecks and GQ subscription.

Jose Vidro - Hometown Buffet $50 gift card, Star Wars Episode VI (sentimental value.)

Richie Sexson - New amendment demoting Mendoza line to .100.

Raul Ibanez - '06 memories.

Yuni - The imminent croaking of Fidel Castro.

Kenji - Extra-protective gear, which covers every square inch of his body which has any chance in hell of taking a hit.

Jamie Burke - Fountain of youth, career HR #2.

Ho - Surgically removed left arm, likely to be replaced by something useful.

JJ - Angus Young outfit introduced as "Throwback-Alternate Uniforms."

Jose Lopez - Lower, more realistic expectations.

Adrian - Eternal love of Red (how coincidental, his last 4 christmas presents as well!)

Willie Ballgame - Love/hate relationship with all Mariners fans. Emphasis on the slash which seperates the values.

King Felix - Ben Broussard traded to prevent freakish yet harmful injuries to team as whole.

Jeremy Reed - ... is still on our team?

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Chappy Channuka everyone!

Movie Monday: Merry Christmas!

I would like to wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you all have a great day, filled with joy of spending time with loved ones. The best Christmas present for me would be Johan Santana being traded to the Mariners, but some of Christmas is just wishful thinking right?

So on behalf of Patrick, Quinn, Hiro, Andy, Brian and I (Dustin), I wish you all a Merry Christmas!

Trying to Make Sense...

I'm still trying to figure out all this trade rumors crap. To be honest I have no clue what is going on. So I'll list out the sources and what the say about the trade rumors, who should be dealt and why or why it won't work. How does that sound? Me telling you what I believe does you guys no good. Me telling you what the FO says helps a little more (except for the fact that we have good ole' Bill running the team still).

ProSportsDaily (on Bedard) - Only 3 days ago we were reported to be in the lead for Bedard, along with the Reds, but yesterday and today have both opened eyes. Apparently, the Orioles are looking to hang onto Bedard, and it is likely that he won't be dealt and will be the Orioles ace on opening day 2008. It is reported that the GM and the whole FO thinks that Bedard is worth more than just Adam Jones and Brandon Morrow. Both Jones are Morrow are Mariners' FO favorites, and only a couple of days ago the FO has said they won't trade Morrow. Bedard seems out of the question now.

ProSportsDaily (on Santana) - Apparently the Mariners are still in the hunt for landing Johan Santana. A source inside the Mariners organization has said that the Mariners are still very involved and alive in landing Johan Santana. Once again, Morrow and Jones would be in the deal, for sure. I just said that Morrow wouldn't be traded, but to me, this deal makes all the sense in the world. REFER HERE for my past blog on why Morrow, Jones and Clement all make sense for Johan Santana. So blogged today on PSD, the Mariners are still very much alive for Johan Santana.

MLBTradeRumors (on Bedard) - Just another article on Bedard being kept by the Orioles.

MLBTradeRumors (on Santana) - The Yankees are pretty much done with Santana. They (The Twins) are asking for something the Yankees said they wouldn't trade (too many key pitching prospects). If traded, I think Johan is a Red Sox pitcher. However, I'll go along with Peter Gammons and say that Johan Santana isn't traded. I'm not putting any money on that, but I would venture to say that a player of Johan's caliber and asking price is just too high. He'll be a free agent after the season, where he can cash in more money. Signing Silva to 4 years for $48 million didn't help the Mariners cause on Santana when the Twins only offered 3 years and 18 million. If Silva is worth $48 million, what in the hell is Santana worth!? I'll tell you. GOLD. DIAMOND. RUBY. (Insert precious metal or mineral). Santana has a value too extreme for the MLB if Silva is worth $48 million.


This is just the latest. I'll be updating it with every ounce of info I can dig up.
Patrick will post here too if he finds stuff I'm unable to get to.

Morrow

According to MLBTradeRumors...

Brandon Morrow - it is highly unlikely that the Mariners are going to trade the young right handed pitcher. It is reported that the worst we will do with him is put him in the starting role in AAA, but it is most likely that he will end up with the Mariners in their bullpen throughout most of the first half.

The trades he was linked to were for Johan Santana, which has nothing going for it now, and for Erik Bedard, which we are supposedly in the lead for.

Thursday Quote: Joys and Sorrows

This week's quote, from deceased writer/artist Kahlil Gibran, is short and sweet:

"We choose our joys and sorrows long before we experience them."

Isn't that the truth! Any decision you make has the potential to either live up to the good expectations that influenced your decision in the first place or to end up as a miserable failure. Mariner Nation seems to be split right now over the decision to sign Carlos Silva to a 4-year deal worth $48 million, and I can't say I blame either side. This is is not one of those signings where much can be said about the player's potential as Carlos Silva is not a guy who seems to have the potential to be a dominant starter. He goes out there, puts up average but consistent numbers, and that's that. Of course we all hope that Safeco Field, an extremely pitcher-friendly park, will allow Silva to improve his numbers slightly, but we just don't know if the decision that has been made will turn out to be a joy, like Miguel Batista last year, or a sorrow like Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez.

Silva and Gold

UPDATE: THE MARINERS HAVE SIGNED PITCHER CARLOS SILVA TO A 4 YEAR CONTRACT WORTH $48 MILLION.

MLB.com reports that the Mariners have agreed to terms with starting pitcher Carlos Silva on what is expected to be a 4-year contract worth approximately $44 million. Negotiations seemed to have gone rather quickly, which to me shows that management knows that something had to be done before there was no one left. I have no problems with this contract; the market is thin and we need a decent #4 guy. Silva fits the bill in my opinion.

Silva On The Radar

The Mariners are close to bolstering their weak, but steady rotation.

Carlos Silva, 28, is mulling over his contract offer by the Mariners; the contract is reported to be 4 years worth $44 million. Over the past 3 seasons he has a 2-1 record at Safeco Field, and has won 3 of his 4 career decisions against the Angels. In the past 4 seasons he is 47-45.

In 2007 he was 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA.

The man can also log the innings; he has pitched in at least 180 innings in each of the last 4 years.

This potential signing would not hinder our talks with Bedard, and we are still pursueing Bedard as far as we all know.

I am 100% okay with this, seeing how we don't lose any prospects, and just use the Kuroda money on Silva. This is really a low risk move as far as I can tell.

If you don't see eye-to-eye with me, feel free to leave a comment.

Movie Monday: Fairweather Fans

Mariners' Looking To Further Weaken A's

Buster Olney has reported, according to MLB Trade Rumors, that the Mariners' are currently in a bidding war for the Oakland A's right handed starter Joe Blanton.

Olney believes that Adam Jones would have to be thrown into the mix in order for the A's to part ways with Blanton. Personally, I have a problem throwing Jones' potential around for a guy with a career 4.10 ERA and a K/9 that is under 6, at 5.24. But, once again, I'm not Bavasi.

The only reason I'm for going for him is our obvious need for pitching, and he'll cost significantly less than Bedard or Santana.

Other teams that may be looking at him include the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets.

This is fairly recent so I expect to hear more as time goes on.

Filling 1st Base

With Ben Broussard gone, sadly, because of a worthless deal, we don't have a back-up for when Sexson folds in May or gets traded to a contender who needs potential power. I have a solution. Tony Clark.

Clark is an imposing figure, standing 6'7" and weighing in at 245 pounds. The guy is a swith-hitting power bat who has more power success from the left side of the plate. A pull, power hitter is what Seattle has always lacked in Safeco. The fact that he's a switch hitter makes him all the more appealing because once Sexson hits the wall, Clark can fill in full time, hitting against both lefties and righties. When given playing time, Clark has been a successful power bat. Every year that he's played more than 130 games, he's hit more than 30 home runs. I won't lie, the guy strikes out quite a bit, about 1/4 of the time, but not like we haven't seen that in Sexson. Honestly, he can't do worse than Sexson did last year.

With a career slugging percentage of about .500, an on-base percentage of about .350 and batting average of about .265, he's not a huge risk because he won't command Sexson like money for a 2-year deal. He's made just over 1 million in each of the last two years. With his age, 35, he won't be able to ask for much more than that, if at all. I say we take the chance after losing our back-up, Broussard.

I learned today that the Diamondbacks have pulled their two-year offer off the table because of the Chris Burke pick-up in the Jose Valverde trade.

Thoughts?

The Rotation: How it could be used Different.

I have an idea.

As we all know, your ace is the first man in your team's rotation. The second man should be the second best pitcher you have in your rotation. The third is, of course, a middle of the road SP, and so on.

But I've been thinking... about an experiment with a different combination of numbers. Think about this...

ACE-4-2-3-5

This is a rotation experiment. Your best pitcher could win the first game of your series (i.e. a 3 game series.) That is a near-guaranteed game 1 win, if your ace is as good as he should be. He is followed by a 4 guy. The 4 guy, of course, is not that good. Chances are he loses, and the series is tied. If he wins, you win the series, good for you. Anyway, so the series is tied. Next up, your 2 guy. He's probably just a peg under your best pitcher, if your 2 guy is how he should be. Chances are, your 2 guy beats their 3 guy.

You win the series, if not sweep (which shouldn't happen with your 4 guy, but miracles do happen.)

Next series, it's your 3 guy, your 5 guy, then your ACE. That's a series that could go one way or another, but may I remind you, it's your 3 guy versus their 4 guy this time around, then your 5 v. their 5 (big offense game), and your ACE v. their ACE.

Of course, these matchups would change from series to series, but you would still have this different type of pattern over and over again, which could be an advantage. The most important aspect is that it would prevent losing streaks, and, while it limits winning streaks, you could still win many series, which is the big thing in a 162 game season. winning 2/3 of these games makes it worthwhile.

Two More Options to Help the Rotation

We all knew going into the offseason that the pickings would be slim this year when it came to acquiring starting pitching. Short of pulling off a blockbuster trade for Santana or Bedard, we all knew that there wasn't a great chance of the Mariners improving their rotation much past mediocre. That being said there are still some free agent pitchers available that could be viable options as 4 or 5 starters for the Mariners next year. After losing out on Kuroda and trade talks seemingly going nowhere right now the Mariners should persue two of the few healthy free agent starters left, Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse.

While neither of these guys is likely to come to the Mariners and turn them into instant contenders I think they could be more viable options than fixing our problems from within.

Here's a look at both pitchers:

Carlos Silva:
55-46, 4.31 ERA, 102 ERA +, 1.36 WHIP, 259 G, 125 GS, 5 CG, 945 IP, 1122 H, 489 R, 171 BB, 395 SO

While those numbers aren't absolutely stunning they aren't bad either. An above .500 career record, sub 5.00 ERA and ERA + of just over 100 are pretty good traits for a potential 4/5 starter. The worst thing about Silva is most likely going to be the price tag. Right now he's one of the best healthy free agents pitchers available in a slim market with lots of suitors. This will no doubt drive the price of Silva up. The potential of another Weaver disaster is there with Silva but I think that at this point the Mariners could have no choice but to aggresively pursue him.

Kyle Lohse:
63-74, 4.57 ERA, 95 ERA +, 1.443 WHIP, 218 G, 195 GS, 6 CG, 1164 IP, 1302 H, 664 R, 365 BB, 734 SO

These number are clearly inferior to Silva's. A sub .500 win percentage, sub 100 ERA+ and 1.443 WHIP are far from great. The risk is even greater for the Mariners in signing Lohse. I can see Jeff Weaver written all over Lohse. Lohse would be my second choice behind Silva. Hopefully Lohse would come cheaper than Silva but in this years free agent market it probably wouldn't be much cheaper.

These are two more options for the Mariners that would keep them from having to go with some combination of Morrow, Baek, RRS and Dickey as the 4 and 5 starters. Of course the Mariners could always go really risky and high price and persue Bartolo Colon or Livan Hernandez...

Prior would only be a thorn in our side

Talk of the possibility of signing Mark Prior after he was not tendered a contract earlier this week has heated up now that Kuroda has signed a 3-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Many seem to think that signing Prior would be one of those low risk, high reward types of scenarios when, in fact, it is moderate risk with minimal or no reward. The Kane County Chronicle out of Illinois reports that "Prior, still recovering from mid-April arthroscopic shoulder surgery, will likely miss some, if not all, of the 2008 season – forced the Cubs’ decision."

This claim is backed up by Rotoworld who says, "Prior was non-tendered by the Cubs earlier this week and likely won't be ready to pitch until several months into the season following shoulder surgery."

I'm not sure about this, but my gut tells me that the Mariner fans who are pushing for Prior are not privy to these details. If they are indeed aware of the extent of Prior's injuries, I'm baffled as to why they would still call upon management to sign him...

What are we supposed to think if the M's inked Prior? If we signed him, does that mean we expect him to be in our rotation? Would we lose our vigor (if we have any) in pursuing other options?

The bottom line is that we have two rotation spots that we need to fill so that we don't have to call upon Ho, Dickey, and Feierabend Associates. If we signed Prior, we would STILL have two rotation spots that we would need to fill! There is absolutely no sense in pursuing a pitcher who may not even pitch next season. To show you just how hopeless he is for next season, you need not look any farther than the fact that the Cubs declined to offer him salary arbitration where he would have made about $3 million. Even the Cubs, who considered Prior to be the future of the organization, cut ties with him.

This prior has fallen off the rosebush. We are best to let it lay upon the ground and be trampled by the busy footsteps of general managers frantically looking for pitchers...

Kuroda to L.A. for $36-40?

>Update: The Dodgers have announced a press conference for noon pacific time tomorrow to announce that they have signed Hiroki Kuroda to a 3-year contract worth$35.3 million.

The newest report from the Los Angeles Daily News indicates that Hiroki Kuroda is currently working on finalizing a three year deal with the Dodgers after completing his physical earlier today. This information is pretty damning evidence of what Mariner fans have been fretting about over the last few days, especially since the report even states the hospital where Kuroda was examined; Centinela Hospital. Surprisingly, the deal is said to be worth more money than expected though still only for three years; $36-40 million, which means $12-13.3 million a year.

It's pretty amazing that Kuroda has chosen the Dodgers over the Mariners. Think about this... He is going to a place where there is really no Japanese influence in the community and no prominent Japanese players on the team. Furthermore, he apparently believes that the Dodgers have a better chance to win than the Mariners even though the Mariners won 6 more games than L.A. in 2007! In addition, we sent an envoy inlcuding Bavasi and McLaren to Japan to meet with Kuroda; something I don't believe any other team has done. All things considered, I wonder if Kuroda is just that impressed by L.A. or if our front office just really did a poor job. So what if we may have had to add another $1-2 million bucks a year! I don't think there is another team in baseball with no viable 4th or 5th starter!

By the way, here is what MLB.com says about the Dodgers: "The fifth starter will come from a group of candidates that includes Jason Schmidt and Esteban Loaiza." Wow, what an awesome dilemma to have...

AL West gets a little bit easier

Today, the Oakland A's and Billy Beane sent 2007 Cy Young hopeful Dan Haren to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The only big name in the deal was Dan Haren; the rest were either spot starters, minor leagues or people with little MLB experience. I love that this happened. But then again, Beane always finds ways of putting a team on the field that can compete.

Here's a look at the entire deal:

Oakland To Receive From Arizona:
Brett Anderson - LHP
Dana Eveland - LHP
Greg Smith - LHP
Chris Carter - INF
Aaron Cunningham - OF
Carlos Gonzalez - OF

Arizona To Receive From Oakland:
Dan Harn - RHP
Connor Robertson - RHP

Arizona To Receive From Houston:
Chad Qualls - RP
Chris Burke - INF
Juan Guttierez - RHP

Houston To Receive From Arizona:
Jose Valverde


This trade, as it would to any staff, completely destroys the front of the rotation. With shotty end of the rotation pitchers, the A's have to deal with Joe Blanton's inconsistencies and Rich Harden's yearly injury at the front of the rotation.

It's a good day to be a Mariners fan.

Could this weekend get any better?

**Dreams of waking up to find out that Johan Santana has become a Mariner and Adam Jones was traded away so he can become a bust with the Twins**

One Man's Push for Mark Prior

Mark Prior is now a free agent after being non-tendered by the Cubs and I would be ecstatic if the Mariners signed him. What do the Mariners need right now? Starting pitching. What is Mark Prior? A starting pitcher once billed as the best thing since Rodger Clemens. First we’ll look at our own rotation and then at Mark Prior and why he fits.

Our rotation, at this point, is essentially 3 men deep with Felix, Washburn, and Batista leaving two spots open. Of the guys looking for the last two spots none impress me all that much. Cha Baek, Ryan Feierabend, Brandon Morrow, Horacio Ramirez and R.A. Dickey come to mind as the guys that will fill those last two spots. Cha Beak and Dickey would be an alright bottom of the rotation starters but the other three should not be in the majors at this point. Morrow has been pitching well in his winter instructional league but that is mostly AA guys and I believe he should probably start out the season in AAA and work his way up to the majors where he will be installed in the rotation. Feierabend is a guy who is fine to have around in AAA in case of injury on the big league club that necessitates a starter to be called up, but he should not be part of your rotation permanently at this point in his career, maybe later. Ho is horrible, the Mariners say that Stottlemyre can work with him and make him better but when the pitching coach has nothing to work with he can’t do much for you. I mean seriously, the guys has a career ERA+ of 93 where 100 is average, the guy is bad. I can see R.A. Dickey doing fairly well in Safeco field with that knuckleball of his that forces most to beat the ball into the ground and the players who can elevate the knuckler will probably be disappointed as Safeco’s outfield gobbles them up. Looking at Dickey’s AAA stats, as a starter, from last year(22 starts, 146.1 IP, 3 CG, 1.73 GO/AO, 99 K’s, 58 BB’s) he looks like he could translate into our 4th/5th starter. So if we look completely within the organization to fill our rotation it will look something like this, Felix, Washburn, Batista, with some combo of Baek, HoRam, and Dickey filling out the last three spots(Baek and Dickey would be my personal choices) with Morrow and Feierabend in AAA.

Mark Prior. He’s had some injury problems but most of them are flukes. One injury came after a collision with Marcus Giles, another came after a line drive off of the bat of Brad Hawpe, but the most serious injury was back at the beginning of 2006 when he had ‘strained’ his shoulder. Its is believed that the Cubs had misdiagnosed this injury, which also landed Prior on the DL later that year and was called shoulder tendinitis this time around, while there was actual structural damage to his shoulder that was repaired by Dr. James Andrews. If we assume that Prior’s shoulder has healed and he can now pitch I see no reason he couldn’t go out there and put up and ERA of about 3.50, which would be a great addition to a pitching staff looking for quality arms to go in the front of the rotation. With Prior the M’s staff now looks like something that might be able to compete with Felix, Prior, Washburn, Batista, and Dickey/HoRam/Baek(With Dickey being my first choice).

The Mariners are in desperate need of quality starting pitchers and Mark Prior will fill that need. Prior’s addition to the rotation would rid us of HoRam, it would allow Morrow to get experience starting in the minors before returning to the big show as a permanent fixture, and it would add a possibly dominating pitcher to the front of our rotation without giving up our prospects. Mark Prior has my stamp of approval.

Money Ball versus Our Ball

Year after year, we watch the Angels (and more extensively,) the A's rise to the top near the end.

As we all know, the A's take the money ball approach. The Angels take a lesser-rout of spending money, spending it smart, and for players with great upside.

Our Mariners FO seems to pride itself in taking a more humble approach. We don't toss around money for proven players, we much prefer giving 8 million dollars for 6 months of suckage to ones like Jeff "Not quite a dream" Weaver.

And yet, we always seem to complain about being not as good as those two other teams. We all know our FO sucks, but there is one particular thing I've thought about recently. Is our more humble, and sensitive signings logically sensible enough to create such a margin as 6 games or so late in the year?

The Oakland Athletics have Billy Beane. He's about sabermetrics, and taking older players (yet proven and respected givers to a team and clubhouse.) The Angels' GMs in recent years have spent money VERY intellegently. They pick up Vlad Guerrero, take young players that have tremendous upside, and older players (like Vlad, Garret Anderson, John Lackey, Torii Hunter) who pretty much function as destructors of a promising season for the rival Seattle Mariners.

We pick up people like Richie. We pick up Rick White. We pick up Ho. We back out of races for big arms (Dice-K, Bedard.) Those two are acceptable abdications. However, backing out of races for ones such as Johan Santana, and a solid 3-man in Kuroda, the season comes around and we're the same. Teams that win go out and get what they need. They know they have the money, that's not an issue.

Our FO is so cautious, and only willing to either build from inside (which I don't have a problem with, really,) or go out and make stupid moves. These said stupid moves are played off as "a veteran we're picking up to add depth to our baseball team, and shift us into the contender position."

In conclusion, my question, (which would be a raging debate in the comments alley), is how big an advantage of Money Ball is, over Seattle Mariners FO baseball. It may be a less personal and colder take to it, but it puts fans in the seats to go out and watch people that are exciting play. Should the Mariners start taking this approach, or are we as fans content with how our FO is controlling our decision-making personality? I know none of us like the FO at all, but is their approach currently going to pay off, and should we wait it out?

Mitchell Report

I scanned through the Mitchell report today and found it to be interesting. Most of the evidence seems to be hearsay and wouldn't stand up in a court of law. Nevertheless 76 players are named in the report, many of them Mariners at some point in their career. The big names in the report are Clemens, Pettite and Tejada with many other prominent players being named also like :Lenny Dykstra, Dave Justice, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Kevin Brown, Rafael Palmeiro, Jose Guillen, Paul Lo Duca, and Mo Vaughn.

Unlike some teams no major former or current Mariners were named in the report and no current roster members were named. Despite our speculation, Bret Boone wasn't in the report. That doesn't mean he did or didn't do steroids. It simply means he wasn't connected to the limited amount of sources that the Mitchell report got their names from. Personally I think that this report was a necessary step in baseball overcoming the steroid era and moving on to better times. However, the handling of the release of the report and the threshold of proof for including names in the report seems questionable. I made a full list of players but didn't want to waste space by posting it. If you really want it you can email me and I'll send it to you.

That being said here is a list of former Mariners that were named in the report:

David Segui
Josias Manzanillo (I've never heard of him either)
Glenallen Hill
Ron Villone
Ryan Franklin
Todd Williams
Fernando Vina
Jose Guillen
David Bell
Ismael Valdez
Fernando Vina

Most of these guys weren't with the team for more than a couple of years and none of them are really guys whom members of the Mariner Nation belove. The same cannot be said for the Yankees whose former trainer, Brian McNamee, was a prominent figure who linked Clemens and Pettite, among many Yankees, to steroids.

Here is the list of current and former Yankees that were named, the list is long (it contains 20 of the 76 players named) and contains many distinguished players:

Andy Pettite
Roger Clemens
Gary Sheffield
Randy Velarde
Bobby Estalella
Josias Manzanillo
Hal Morris
Rondell White
Chuck Knoblauch
Jason Grimsley
David Justice
Glenallen Hill
Denny Neagle
Ron Villone
Todd Williams
Mike Stanton
Kevin Brown
Daniel Naulty
Jose Canseco
Darren Holmes

The backlash of the naming of Clemens and Pettite has already started. While I wouldn't call the evidence against both pitchers incredibly strong, I still think it will be interesting to see fans reactions. Clemens and Pettite, unlike some other players that have been linked to steroids (Barry Bonds) are beloved and held in high regard by a lot of fans. It seems fitting to me, however, that perhaps the two best players that current baseball fans have seen grace the field have now been linked to steroids...

That other New York team, the Metropolitans, also was a prominent figure in the report. One of their former clubhouse workers, Kirk Radomski, was a prominent distributor of steroids and gave testimony to Mitchell, giving up many names. Here is a list of Mets that were named in the report:

Lenny Dykstra
David Segui
Josias Manzanillo
Todd Hundley
Mark Carreon
Matt Franco
Mo Vaughn
Chris Donnels
Todd Pratt
Mike Stanton
Paul Lo Duca
Fernando Vina
Gary Bennett, Jr.
Paul Byrd
Gary Matthews, Jr.
Scott Schoeneweis

The best thing that I think came out of this report is that it places blame for the steroids era on three main entities: MLB, the MLBPA and the press. All these groups seemingly turned a blind eye to steroids while baseball prospered from baseballs flying out of the park. This report places the blame where it belongs, directly upon the major players who had the power to induce change yet chose to ignore the truth for so long.

At the least this report is going to create a lot of talk over the next week to month. I'm really interested to see what repercussions may come about because of it. Personally, I just can't wait for this to be past us and for next season to start.

Thursday Quote: Odd Silence

This week, I take a quote from Australian poet Pam Brown who once wrote:

"Odd how much it hurts when a friend moves away - and leaves behind only silence."

If you think about it, this really sums up this offseason so far; one of our main guys (Jose Guillen), who I would even say was our team leader last year, is now a member of the Kansas City Royals after the Mariners refused to offer him salary arbitration. Since then, granted, the old and reliable rumor mill has been crankin' out some juicy stuff, but the transaction front for the Mariners has been about as quiet as Dolphin Stadium during a Marlins home game. Jose Guillen has left behind a strange and unwelcome silence in that regard that is only being amplified by the noise around baseball.

Mariner fans have been waiting patiently this offseason for management to make some changes that would allow us to compete for the playoffs in 2008. What's worse than watching our team stand idly by is doing so while our competitors have been fine-tuning their rosters (Red Sox, Yankees, Indians) and even landing huge players (Angels, Tigers). Take a look at the moves some of our competitors have made in the last two months and then take a look at what we've done at the bottom.

New York Yankees
11/2/07: Exercised 2008 club option on OF Bobby Abreu
11/15/07: Agreed on the framework of a deal that would pay Alex Rodriguez up to $305 mil. over 10 years
11/16/07: Signed RHP Scott Patterson as a free agent
11/29/07: Re-signed free agent C Jorge Posada to a four-year contract
12/3/07: Signed C Jose Molina to a two-year contract
12/12/07: Signed LHP Andy Pettitte to a one-year contract

Boston Red Sox
11/2/07: Red Sox exercised the 2008 contract options on RHP Julian Tavarez and RHP Tim Wakefield
11/6/07: Signed RHP Curt Schilling to a one-year contract
11/20/07: Re-signed 3B Mike Lowell to a three-year contract
12/7/07: Re-signed free agent RHP Mike Timlin to a one-year contract

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
11/19/07: Acquired RHP Jon Garland from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for SS Orlando Cabrera and cash.
11/21/07: Signed free agent OF Torii Hunter to a five-year contract

Detroit Tigers
11/11/07: Signed SS Ramon Santiago to a a one-year contract
11/12/07: Acquired OF Jacque Jones from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for INF Omar Infante
11/30/07: Re-signed LHP Kenny Rogers to a one-year contract; Signed RHP Francisco Cruceta to a one-year contract
12/4/07: Acquired RHP Denny Bautista from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for RHP Jose Capellan
12/5/07: Acquired LHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins in exchange for RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP Dallas Trahern, LHP Andrew Miller, C Mike Rabelo and OF Cameron Maybin; Acquired OF Freddy Guzman from the Rangers for 1B Chris Shelton

Cleveland Indians
11/20/07: Signed RHP Masahide Kobayashi, who had been with the Chiba Lotte Marines of the JPL, to a two-year contract with a club option for 2010
12/8/07: Acquired INF Jamey Carroll from the Rockies for a player to be named

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Seattle Mariners
12/6/07: Selected RHP R.A. Dickey from the Twins in the Rule 5 Draft
12/12/07: Acquired minor leaguer Tim Hulett from Texas for 1B Ben Broussard

Broussard Traded, HoRam Tendered, Parrish Non-tendered

The Mariners finally made a move today that shouldn't have been surprising considering the circumstances. Bavasi had to make a decision to either tender Broussard a contract for next year, non-tender him and let him become a free agent, or trade him. They chose the last option and you'd think they would try to get a little pitching or something, right? Wrong. Broussard was traded straight-up to Texas for a minor league infielder with some pretty good potential by the name of Tim Hulett (24). Hulett is a left-handed hitter who is said to be able to play multiple infield positions. Last year with Triple-A Oklahoma, he hit 279/.350/.406.

While this isn't a crushing blow, it still hurts to see a guy like Ben Broussard traded, especially within the division. He figures to receive the bulk of the playing time at first base for the Rangers in 08 and may be platooned with right-handed hitter Chris Shelton.

In addition, the Mariners decided to tender Horacio Ramirez a contract for the 2008 season; but this may simply be for precautionary reasons should the M's fail to acquire starting pitching... very, very possible.

Let's atleast end this post on a positive note; the Mariners non-tendered left-handed reliever John Parrish who join the club late in the season after minor leaguer Sebastian Boucher was traded to the Orioles in a pre-game swap between the two teams. As far as the bullpen goes... He was the weakest link; GOODBYE!

How To Lose the Division

How To Lose the Division to the A’s
By Lil’ Billy Ba-broken-vasi

I went on a vacation with my parents last weekend. I traded baseball cards with my brother the whole way there. It was a lot of fun.
He wanted Johan Santana for a few prospects. I said no, because you never know when you would want to trade them away for someone like Ho.
Then my friend from school called my mom’s cell phone. He's really good at collecting, and he wanted to know if I wanted a baseball card of a new guy from Japan that he says was average-to-above average. I offered him, like, 33 kagillion dollars for the card, and I'd come visit with my best friend John. He said he'd think about it, then hung up.
When we got to the hotel, I immediately ran in and started playing my PSP. Wait, first, I'm gonna tell you about John.
... MY FRIEND JOHN IS NICE!! He makes me smile, laugh, and when we have sleepovers, he even tells me secrets about him!!! We have pillowfights, we pick on lil' Mikey Hargrove (who we kicked out of our fort last year because he didn't like lil' Ichiro,) and we cry at the end of Forrest Gump in eachothers' arms. Right, Ichiro, that reminds me, he nearly left our fort last year, but then when lil' Mikey left, he got all better now. It scared us so bad, I decided that we needed a veteran friend like Ricky White. He drew bright red all over his chin during Nap time some time ago, which coincidentally happened when he started going to our kindergarten! WOW!!! It was so funny, I nearly went and renewed my friendship with lil' Chris Reitsma, who I kicked out last year after he betrayed me by throwing easy pitches to the other teams during recess >:(

Edgar Martinez and The Hall

It’s the off season and I got around to thinking about Edgar Martinez out of sheer boredom and the more I look at his numbers the more I think he has got to make it into the Hall of Fame when he comes up for election in 2009. The voting is based on “The player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.” and if you apply these to Edgar’s career there is no reason I can see that should exclude him from the hall.

If we start with playing ability it is evident that he was a great ballplayer. He hit for a career line of .312/.418/.515 and a 147 OPS+. Consider the job of a hitter, what is the most important thing you can do? That would be getting on base and not making an out allowing you to score runs. Taking a look at career OBP numbers Edgar ranks 22nd all-time, that’s right only 21 men were better than him at getting on base. And if you want to take a look at just right handed batters Edgar is 5th, fifth! Only behind Hornsby, Foxx, Helton, Frank Thomas, and Pujols. The first two are in the hall and the last 3 are probably on their way there. Looking at his OPS+(OPS adjusted for both park and league factors.) he is 46th all time, tied with the likes of Willie McCovey, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Schmidt, and Willie Stargell. That is a bunch of pretty good hitters right there, three Hall of Famers and a guy that is obviously going to be. Edgar didn’t play defense all that much, he played 70% of his games at DH, and all of the Hall of Famers I quoted are better than him because of it. But fielding is only one component of being a good ballplayer, just because somebody didn’t play defense does not mean they were not great and Edgar is proof. Look at Paul Molitor, he played more games at DH than any other position and he is in the hall, and if Molitor is there Edgar deserves to be there too.

Now onto the second component, his integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team he played on. Much less important than his playing ability but still a criteria for hall induction Edgar shines here as well. Its 1995 and the M’s are 13 games back of the Angels in the West, and what did Edgar decide to do? He only hit for a line of .398/.560/.786 when things were looking their worst and getting this team on its comeback trail, which was and still is the most improbable comeback in the history of baseball. Then, in the ALDS, Edgar hit’s the most famous double named simply “The Double” for no name could accurately describe the emotion and importance of the moment. In this season which may have saved Mariner baseball as we see it today Edgar’s star burned as bright as anybody’s. His character is also a shining star in the Seattle area. He has made contributions of time, money, and other resources to the Children’s Hospital and Regional Medical Center in Seattle. Just this year Edgar was elected into a sports hall of fame because of his generous contributions to the community, on June 20, 2007 he was inducted into the World Sports Humanitarian Hall of Fame in Boise, Idaho.

People may believe that his Humanitarian work means nothing, but even if they do his playing career spoke for itself as one of the most brilliant hitting careers the league has seen and he deservedly belongs in Cooperstown, New York along with the other legends of baseball lore.

As position players disperse, focus turns to pitching

On the day that the Mitchell Report is set to be released naming approximately 70 to 80 players with links to steroids, it has been a pretty active day in the Hot Stove League. So far we've seen the disintegrating Orioles deal their disgruntled shortstop Miguel Tejada to the Astros in return for a 5 player package of major league ready but hardly impressive prospects including outfielder Luke Scott and pitcher Matt Albers. It kind of makes me happy that Miguel Tejada didn't really work out for the Orioles because if you'll remember back to a couple offseasons ago, the M's and the O's duked it out to sign the then free agent Tejada. Wooo that was a close one! Could you imagine... well, don't try to imagine; it's been bad enough watching Beltre and Sexson underperform.

But I digress. Today, we've also seen the Giants sign outfielder Aaron Rowand to a 5 year / $60 mil. contract, Andruw Jones officially tie the knot with the Dodgers, Crag Monroe hook on with the Twins, the Cubs and Fukudome agree to terms, and the Rays come close to signing Cliff Floyd to a one year deal. What does all of this mean? Well with position players being traded and snatched up, the focus for most teams will surely turn to starting pitching. The pursuit of pitching should be aided by the fact that the non-tender deadline is tonight and teams could be making room and setting themselves up to make a splash in the market. How this will end up for the Mariners is yet to be seen and a lot could be at stake tonight; there is a possibility that the Mariners will decide to non-tender Ben Broussard effectively making him a free agent as well as the possibility that the much anticipated decision from Japanese pitcher Hiroki Kuroda will come in the next 24 to 48 hours. Hopefully Bill Bavasi plays OUR cards right and does something that will benefit the team.

Stay on top of things in the next couple days; check back with Mariner Nation for everything you need to know.

The Off-Season May Have Just Gotten Interesting For The Mariners

Time: as I type is 9:05 WCT
Time the blog was posted: 8:10 WCT
Subject: Hiroki Kuroda

Apparently a source very close to the Kuroda signing says that the Dodgers have gotten Kuroda's services. It is not official on any mlb site, or the Dodgers home page, but it was posted by a source close to the deal (he was actually in Japan, apparently) says that Kuroda says the Dodgers will be his team in 2008. This is shocking because the Mariners have a stronger Japanese circle of influence (Seattle, Ichiro, Kenji) and we offered more money (undisclosed). I really don't know why Kuroda would rather pitch for the Dodgers for less money, but that wasn't my decision. Geoff Baker's blog on the Seattle Times website says that this is untrue, but from 3 other rumor sites, his is the only one I've said that the deal wasn't true, and that it may be another week before Kuroda makes his decision. So, think what you want, and believe what you want. So, I'm making this blog a hypothetical blog now (since according to Baker, Kuroda wasn't signed).

Now, this makes Bavasi's job a lot more stressful. He now knows he must push for Bedard or Santana (let's pray it is Santana). He must decide who is tradeable, who is untradeable, who is untouchable, and work out a deal that won't give up too much or a deal that goes dead because he offers too little. Let's hope Bavasi knows where this line is.

Johan Santana
Santana is going to be the easier in terms of trade agreement, because the Twins haven't asked for as much as the Orioles. However, he has a full no-trade clause, and has said he doesn't want to be a Mariners pitcher. Now, he needs a new contract also... From baseball history in the era of greed, we know any player will sign for x ammount of money. With deeps pockets for owners, the Mariners could shed the money. I see this getting easier if we can somehow shed Sexson in the deal (lots of money, little performance). Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Jeff Clement may be too much, in some people's opinion, but to me, the deal makes total sense. Aside from the Red Sox, in Ellsbury, the Twins won't find another young CF with immense potential. This also makes sense in that Morrow could go either way as a starter or a closer. They lose Santana, they get Morrow to start. Joe Nathan's contract is up soon, so if he goes, they have Morrow to step in and close. The Twins have discussed moving Mauer to 1st, left or DH to save his legs. Clement can step in and catch, and hit too. Justin Morneau's contract ends soon, and if he wants to leave, Clement or Mauer could step into 1st. The Mariners need a starter. Why not get the best pitcher on the planet? His numbers and his awards (2 of the last 4 Cy Young awards) say this also. He is 100% proven on the mound, and he's left handed. I love this scenario. I really hope it is explored.

Erik Bedard
The other option, and more difficult one, is Erik Bedard. The Orioles are asking more for Bedard, since he is not in his contract year. His contract ends after the 2009 season, so the Orioles aren't in a rush to deal him. The only way I see this easier than Santana is that an Orioles scout and front office man said the Mariners are "a logical and easy fit for Bedard." Those aren't worded perfect, but it is a paraphrase, since the quote was about a paragraph. Bedard would also have to be signed. I don't want a two year rent-a-player. That would be bogus. He is a high price. Jones, Morrow, George Sherrill and Wladimir Balentien is the asking price, and that only seems to go up. I don't like giving up Jones (future Mike Cameron) or Wladimir (future Manny Ramirez), let alone in the same deal! The Orioles are out of their mind if they think they will pry away both of those players in the same deal. Also, Bedard hasn't had any measure of success outside of his last 2 years as a starter. He isn't as proven, and I venture to say he isn't even fully proven. He is left-handed though, so it wouldn't be a total blow below the belt to the Mariners organization if we ended up with him. Either way, he's an upgrade over Weaver and HoRam. I, still, would push for Santana.

Now, it is up to Bavasi to get off his butt if this rumor about Kuroda is really 100% true. I guess we will find out soon...

Kevin Mench DFA'ed

Today, the Milwaukee Brewers designated 29 year old outfielder Kevin Mench for assignment in preparation to sign pitcher Salomon Torres. It is likely that the Brewers will non-tender Mench on Wednesday making him a free agent. How is this relevant to the Mariners, you ask? Well, call me crazy, but I don't think it would be such a bad idea to sign a guy like Kevin Mench after cutting ties with Jose Guillen. It doesn't seem like the Mariners will be making any big splashes this offseason, and if they do, it will more than likely involve sending Adam Jones and/or Wlad Balentien to Baltimore for Erik Bedard or to Minnesota for Johan Santana. Let's go through the possible scenarios to see how Kevin Mench could play an important role on this team.

1) Jones and Balentien are both traded: This would leave us with a severely depleted outfield consisting of Raul Ibanez in left (by all indications) and Ichiro in center. So who plays right? The answer is simple: Kevin Mench.

2) Jones is traded, Balentien retained: Again, this could possibly open up a spot for another outfielder. I'm not sure how management views the possibility of Balentien starting somewhere in the outfield in 2008, but for all intensive purposes let's say he would start in right-field or in center with Ichiro in right for this scenario. Mench would STILL be a huge asset to this club as he would be able to be platooned in left with Ibanez. Ibanez would get the starts vs. right-handed pitchers and Mench would be in vs. the southpaws. This would make for a pretty efficient platoon based on each of their career stats when the matchup favors them.

Ibanez vs. righties: .293 AVG .355 OBP .497 SLG .852 OPS
Mench vs. lefties: .305 AVG .361 OBP .563 SLG .924 OPS

3) Jones is retained and starts in right: Mench could still platoon with Ibanez in left not to mention some time at DH if Vidro gets hurt or his average slips.

Signing Mench would be a low-risk, high reward type of thing since it wouldn't cost us all that much to sign him. Last year, he made $3.4 million although he did not quite live up to expectations, hitting .267 in only 101 games for the Brew Crew. This is just my opinion; don't expect Bavasi to make this happen.

Movie Monday: Sweet Lou Piniella-ella-ella

If anyone can record a song related to the Mariners, you rock!

Bullpen Dynamics

In 2007, the Mariners had one of the best bullpens in baseball as well as one of the youngest as minor league talent translated well into major league success. However, towards the end of the year, the bullpen struggled and contributed to the decline of the Mariners sparking several questions about the stability and organization of the bullpen. Who's the legitimate set-up man? Do we need a veteran in the bullpen? How many lefties is too many? In this post, I hope to answer some of those questions and provide a rough plan for the bullpen in 2008.

When it comes to the bullpen, relief pitchers are not created equal. There are vast differences in the various roles that relievers play within the bullpen and it's crucial to understand those roles before plugging guys into certain spots. A bullpen typically consists of the following:

> Long Reliever (LR): This role, sometimes regarded as "mop-up work," is not really a desired role for pitchers, but somebody has to do it. They are used early in the game, usually in the first four innings, when a starting pitcher has to leave the game because of injury, rain delay, fatigue, ejection, or is just being flat-out pummeled. Their goal is usually to keep the game within reach and give the offense a chance to get back in it. Normally, a long reliever is a former starter who has been banished to the bullpen in order to get back on track in a less pressurized situation.

> Middle Reliever (MR): The majority of pitchers in any given bullpen normally classify as middle relief. They are typically used right after a starting pitcher has put forth a mediocre, five or six inning effort. It is hoped that a relief pitcher coming into the game is more effective than the starter and will allow the team to get back into the game if they are behind before it gets too late. Middle relievers are also important because they can be viable options out of the pen which allows the manager to save the late inning guys for specific situations. Often times, young pitchers fresh out of the minor leagues get a chance to audition in middle relief in hopes of landing a more important pitching role.

> Left-handed Specialist (LHS): A left-handed specialist is not necessarily simply a left-handed reliever. The term "specialist" comes from the the idea that they only face one or two batters; usually left-handed hitters. This is because when a left-handed pitcher throws a breaking pitch to a left-handed batter, it will tend to sweep away from the hitter making it more difficult to hit. Since there are more right-handed pitchers, left-handed hitters have less opportunities to bat against left-handers and, therefore, often struggle. Some left-handed specialists take advtantage of this by developing a delivery that intensifies the break on their pitches making it that much harder on the hitters they face. Most teams carry atleast one left-handed specialist in their bullpen and they are typically used in the mid to late innings but can be used earlier to get a big out against good left-handed hitter.

> Right-handed Specialist (RHS): The job description of a right-handed specialist is essentially the same as a left-handed specialist, just flipped around. It is rarer to see a pitcher who is classified into this role simply because no matter what their throwing motion looks like, right-handed hitters have more experience at hitting right-handed pitchers. There are those, like Chad Bradford, who have such an uncommon delivery that they can be an effective right-handed specialist. Usually, this uncommon delivery is in the form of a "submarine" delivery.

> Set-up Man (SET): The setup man is arguably the most important relief pitcher and is used to bridge the gap from the starter or reliever to the closer. This is normally the 8th inning but some setup men who feel comfortable going two innings will come in during the 7th inning. It is not uncommon for a team to have two of these; one left-handed and one right-handed.

> Closer (CL): The closer should be the best pitcher in the bullpen. He is the guy that you want out there with the game on the line, so being consistently dominant is an important characteristic. Being able to go out there whenever the game is on the line comes with a lot of pressure, so a big league closer needs to have a certain attitude that will allow him to deal with that pressure. It's often said that a closer should have a short memory so that he can go out there a day or two after blowing a save and show no signs of it affecting him. Typically, they should have a high level of intensity as well as a one spectacular pitch whether it be a smokin' fastball, a sharp breaking ball, or a splitter that falls right off the shelf. They are used almost exclusively in the 9th inning with their team leading by a small margin.

Candidates: Cha Seung Baek (R), R.A. Dickey (R), Ryan Feierabend (L), Sean Green (R), Jon Huber (R), Cesar Jimenez (L), Mark Lowe (R), Brandon Morrow (R), Eric O'Flaherty (L), John Parrish (L), J.J. Putz (R), Horacio Ramirez (L), Ryan Rowland-Smith (L), George Sherrill (L), Sean White (R), Joseph Woerman (R)

My 2008 Mariners Bullpen (assuming all of the above pitchers are not in the starting rotation):

> LR: Ryan Rowland-Smith (L), R.A. Dickey (R)
> MR: Sean Green (R), Mark Lowe (R), Jon Huber (R)
> LHS: Eric O'Flaherty (L)
> RHS: --
> SET: Brandon Morrow (R), George Sherrill (L)
> CL: J.J. Putz (R)

Do we need to go out and get a veteran for the pen?

No way. Our bullpen was kicking through the first three quarters of the 2007 season up until we did try to bring in some veterans (John Parrish and Rick White). Instead of helping our young guys out, they just brought the bullpen and the team down with poor performances out on the mound. I would have liked to have seen Bill Bavasi go after a guy like Mike Timlin who is a veteran as well as a GOOD PITCHER. It is good to have Norm Charlton as the bullpen coach as he will surely provide a veteran presence.

How many lefties is too many?

I don't want to set a specific number on it, but after acquiring John Parrish last year, there were something like four or five out there in the pen which was certainly too many. My plan calls for 3 of the 9 pitchers to be left-handed.

Who's the legitimate setup man?

I do like the idea of having a left-handed and a right-handed setup man and I think we've got two guys in Morrow and Sherrill who are perfect for that role. Sherrill absolutely dominates lefties and Morrow has the fastball velocity to be effective in the 7th and 8th innings. The only concern with Morrow is his control, but he seemed to improve as the season when on. If Sherrill and or Morrow happens to be traded this offseason, Sean Green would fill the right-handed spot and Eric O'Flaherty would fill the left-handed spot.

Bavasi's Uphill Battle

So a lot of people out there think that GM Bavasi has no plan. Incorrect. He has a plan, it is just an uphill battle (hence the title).

Plan A - Johan Santana
Obviously, the best on the planet. Any team would be drooling just to have him on their roster, let alone IN THE TRADE RUMORS. This isn't going to be an easy trade though. Santana has a "no-trade" clause and would most likely wave the Mariners as a suitor because if he goes to the West Coast, he wants to be on a 1st place team. Now, no offense Mr. Santana, but with you in our rotation, I would gamble to say we would be pretty dang close to getting 1st. Santana also has another drawback, and that is his pricetag. I haven't heard anything recently on the new asking price, but it won't be easy to compensate for him. He comes with a new salary also. Here's what I don't understand: If we get the trade through, we have the money to pay the salary. Our owners have pretty dang deep pockets, since we are owned by Nintendo.

I am calling out Bavasi right now, to get off the couch and hardcore pursue Santana. Santana is a once in a decade, heck, maybe two decade pitcher. Just the fact that our team has been mentioned isn't enough. We need to land him. He is a safer bet than Bedard.

Plan B - Erik Bedard
Bedard is the most risky bet. Bedard's asking price is immense since his contract doesn't end until the end of 2009. He is a fan favorite in Baltimore. I mean, how could he not be on a terrible team, but that is keeping him closer to the organization. He is going to come with a risk also. He's not produced the numbers that Santana has put out.

Also, and this is another thing I don't understand, he will cost more than Santana. Don't ask me how that is possible, but it is. They are asking for Jones, Morrow, Sherrill and/or Balentien. This would be the dumbest thing ever. Trading Jones and Balentien in the same deal, let alone the same off-season shouldn't even be considered, and the Mariners should pull away from that now. No way is a not-so-much-proven pitcher worth that. He's also going to get a lot of money with his next new contract (FA after '10), so we would have to be able to resign him.

Safer bet = Santana
More reward for the risk = Santana
Better pitcher = Santana
Easier to coax into the Mariners organization = Santana

This shouldn't be a hard decision for Bavasi. He should put all his efforts and thoughts into Johan Santana, and fall back on Bedard only as a back-up plan.

Poll Results: Trade for Santana?

Should the Mariners trade Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and Brandon Morrow to the Twins for starting pitcher Johan Santana? Vote only once.

Yes, but only if the Twins sign him to a contract first: 18 Votes (41%)

Yes, regardless if the Twins sign him to a contract or not: 5 Votes (11%)

No: 20 votes (46%)

Poll closed on 12/6/07

Interesting... Glad to see that 43 votes were cast! Hopefully everyone respected the integrity of the poll and voted only once.

Thursday Quote: Good to be a Pessimist

I'm pretty thrilled about this week's quote from George Will; a conservative journalist and news paper columnist.

"The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised."

This week's annual Winter Meetings for baseball general managers in Nashville, Tennessee just ended today and the Mariners, like many teams, are coming home empty handed. I began the week advising Mariner fans to "brace yourselves for nothing to happen." I gave this advice because over the last few years, we have been disappointed time after time with bad trades, no trades, bad free agent signings, and no free agent signings to the point where I've come to expect this type of thing from our front office. Now that I'm at the point of pessimism, I have experienced one of its two sides; I've been proven right. When given the choice, I would rather be pleasantly surprised ten times out of ten; but that's not how surprises work. That said, I'm not at all surprised that we came away from the Winter Meetings with the same players we went in with and I hope that Bavasi and Co. will "pleasantly surprise" me before the season begins. Until that happens, I guess I will continue to be a pessimist and use the front office's track record as a means of predicting the future only to more than likely be proved right.

Mariners Rule 5 Draft Picks

The Rule 5 Draft is part of MLB's collective bargaining agreement that occurs once a year at the Winter Meetings. Basically, teams get to choose minor league players from other organizations who are not on that team's 40-man roster. A team that makes a selection must add that selection to their 40-man roster; meaning if there is no room, they may not select a player. When the season starts, the selection must remain on the 25-man roster for the entire season in order for the team to have the power to option him to the minors or designate him for assignment. If he does not remain on the 25-man roster for the entire season, he must be offered back to the team from which he was selected from.

Major League Phase

R.A. Dickey (from Minnesota): Robert Alan Dickey is a 33-year old, righthanded knuckleballer from Nashville, Tennessee. He started out his career in Texas after being drafted by the Rangers in 1996. Dickey made his major league debut in 2001 with Texas but never proved to be consistently good enough to remain in the majors. The Rangers gave him another chance in 2006 as their fifth starter after he became a knuckleball pitcher in the minor leagues in an attempt to find more success. His stay in the rotation was short-lived as he was demoted to the minors after giving up a record tying six homeruns in his first start. Last January, Dickey signed a minor league contract with the Milwaukee Brewers and spent 2007 with their triple-A affiliate; the Nashville Sounds of the Pacific Coast League. There, he compiled an impressive 12-6 record with a 3.80 era leading him to be named Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year. Some of his success in the minor leagues may be attributed to the fact that he faced younger hitters that are yet to develop the plate discipline of players in the major leagues making his knuckleball seem more effective than it actually is. On November 28th, he became a minor league free agent and signed with the Minnesota Twins with an invite to Spring Training only to be selected by the M's in the Rule 5 Draft about a week later.

As far as the impact that Dickey could have on the Mariners, it is assumed that he will be invited to Spring Training and given a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation should that spot still be open. In the end, this pick may not be that bad. At the least, he is a guy with some big-league experience that could step in to make some emergency starts if needed.

AAA Phase

None

AA Phase

None

Note: The Mariners did lose right-handed relief pitcher Juan Sandoval to the Milwaukee Brewers organization in the triple-A phase of the draft. Last year, he recorded a 5.75 era with a 2-6 record between West Tennessee (AA) and Tacoma (AAA).

Winter Meetings: Newest Developments

UPDATED 12/6 @ 8:21 AM EASTERN / 5:21 AM PACIFIC

• Hiroki Kuroda: Reports indicate that Kuroda will visit Seattle, Arizona, and LA (Dodgers) before making a decision. These are three of the four supposed finalists with the other thought to be the Mets. Originally, it was thought that all teams involved had offered around 3 years/30 million for Kuroda; but Geoff Baker now believes that the Mariners have indeed added a fourth year to the offer. If this is the case, expect the Dodgers to do the same.
• Raul Ibanez: The Cubs and the Indians have shown interest in Ibanez. mlbtraderumors.com mentions the possibility of the Mariners acquiring starting pitcher Cliff Lee from the Indians inreturn for Raul. If Japanese import Fukudome signs with the Cubs, don't expect Ibanez to be heading to Chicago. If they don't sign him, however, Keep your eyes on starting pitcher Sean Marshall.
• Darin Erstad: Rotoworld reports that the Mariners are one of atleast four teams who have inquired about 1B/OF/DH Darin Erstad of the White Sox. At this point in time, the Mariners have absolutely no use for Erstad so I'm not sure why he's being brought up besides the fact that Bavasi was GM in Anaheim the same time that Erstad played there.
• Richie Sexson: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Mariners are intent on trading Richie Sexson and names the Orioles, Giants, Devil Rays, and Yankees as possible candidates for his services. A report a couple days ago mentioned a deal with San Francisco that would send Sexson to the Giants in return for Ray Durham. Seattle would most likely have to pay atleast part of Sexson's 08 salary if he is traded anywhere. Since Broussard was apparently offered to the Rays for Edwin Jackson (deal was rejected by TB), Sexson is probably safe for the time being.
• Edwin Jackson: The Mariners are reportedly interested in starting pitcher Edwin Jackson of the Devil Rays. This isn't really surprisng considering his name was tossed around at the 07 trading deadline. Originally, a Broussard for Jackson swap seemed possible until the Seattle Times reported that the Rays had rejected this deal. The word seems to be that Tampa Bay may want catcher prospect Rob Johnson as well as Broussard.
• Matt Clement: The Mariners are one of at least three teams who have shown interest in starting pitcher Matt Clement.
• Erik Bedard: The Mariners are now one of three teams pushing aggressively for Orioles ace Erik Bedard along with the Mets and Dodgers. A deal would probably be centered around some type of combination of Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, Wlad Balentien, and George Sherrill and would likely not involve Jeff Clement as the O's don't need a catcher. There are at least eleven other teams pursuing Bedard though an O's source said Seattle may be the best fit.
• Marcus Giles: The free agent second baseman has drawn interest from the Mariners, the Rockies, and atleast one other NL team. He would command around 4 million dollars a year and should the Mariners sign him, he would be used to challenge Jose Lopez for the starting position at second base or allow the M's to deal Lopez to another team (though not likely).
• Ben Sheets: It seems as if this rumor is just about dead and the Mariners are no longer looking into Ben Sheets though they have met with the Brewers; possibly about other pitchers like Chris Capuano.
• ???: A report on mlbtraderumors.com mentions that the GM of the Cardinals, John Mozeliak, met with the Mariners today as well as the Brewers (regarding Rolen [STL]), the Orioles (regarding Tejada [BAL]), and the Brewers (regarding Anthony Reyes [STL] and Edmonds [STL]). I doubt the conversations with Seattle involved Rolen or Edmonds, but possibly young starter Anthony Reyes.
• Mark Loretta: The Mariners have talked to Mark Loretta's agent about signing the veteran second baseman and using him as a utility infielder. mlbtraderumors.com figures the M's would be willing to pay him around 2 million dollars. The Rockies seem to be the more likely choice for Loretta should he reject arbitration from the Astros.
• Tim Linceum: It's been reported that the Mariners have been linked to San Francisco's young starting pitcher Tim Linceum. While Giants GM Brian Sabean is not shopping Linceum, the M's could put together a package including Richie Sexson. Don't put too much stock in this one...
• Ben Broussard: Two teams seem interested; the Giants and the Rangers. They may wait to see if the Mariners tender him a contract or not.
• Jose Lopez: Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has reported that the Mariners are using Jose Lopez as trade bait. The Nationals, Giants, Rockies and Twins are teams in need of a second baseman.
• David Wells: The Mariners and the Reds are considering the veteran starter. Call it being desperate or call it covering all bases... It's just not a good idea.
• George Sherrill: Bill Bavasi has mentioned that several teams have shown interest in the left-handed specialist.
• Geoff Jenkins: The Seattle Times reports that the Mariners have been in contact with the agent of leftfielder Geoff Jenkins. He seems to only be a possibility if Ibanez or Sexson is traded.
• Johan Santana: It is assumed that the Mariners will finally be able to begin negotiations with the Twins over the hottest commodity this offseason; Johan Santana. Previously, it seemed as if the Twins were only interested in talking with the Red Sox and the Yankees. Now that the Yankees and Red Sox are moving out of the picture, it would make sense for other interested teams to jump in. The Mariners would most likely put together a package of Brandon Morrow, Adam Jones, and Jeff Clement, though maybe not in their initial offer.

Baltimore Not in Bedard's Future

The Washington Post reported that left-handed pitcher Erik Bedard has told the Baltimore Orioles that he has no intentions of signing a contract extension to remain in Baltimore, increasing the chances that he might be traded sooner rather than later. There are disagreements among the baseball community about what it would cost to acquire Bedard from the O's with some reports saying that the Orioles would want four prospects for him; more than the Twins want for Santana. A Baltimore Sun article yesterday reported that the Mariners are one of six teams that have expressed interest in Bedard, along with the Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Diamondbacks. One would have to figure that the Red Sox will get into the mix sooner or later. The consensus at the Winter Meetings is that the Orioles would like to make some fundamental changes so keep your eye on Bedard.

Cubs Interested in Ibanez?

Chicago Cubs GM Jim Hendry has made his apirations to acquire a left-handed bat quite clear this offseason and the name Raul Ibanez has been tossed around as a potential candidate. It's hard to gauge where management stands on Raul Ibanez and if they consider Wladamir Balentien to be ready for a full-time job in the big leagues. The Cubs have also toyed with the idea of trading Mark Prior before they have to tender him a contract for the 2008 season in about a week. If the Mariners are willing to take a risk on Mark Prior and hope that he can get healthy and then stay healthy, I wouldn't be completely surprised if the two teams struck a deal involving Prior and Ibanez.

Santana Makes Ultimatum

According to the Providence Journal, Johan Santana has told the Twins that he would not only use his no trade clause to block any trade during the season, but that he would use it in the coming week on any deal involving a team not named the Yankees or the Red Sox. This effectively puts an end to any hope Mariner fans had of acquiring the All Star southpaw this offseason.

Meanwhile, the Mariners contingent arrived in Nashville the other day for the annual Winter Meetings that are set to begin today and continue through Wednesday. Keep checking back with Mariner Nation for news and analysis of the Winter Meetings.

Mariners Decline Arbitration on Guillen, Others

Rotoworld reported early this morning that the Mariners declined to offer arbitration to Jose Guillen, Jeff Weaver, Arthur Rhodes, and Chris Retisma. Obviously the big news here is Jose Guillen and the fact that the Mariners did not want to take a chance on him accepting arbitration according to Rotoworld. While many fans seem to be emotionally distraught with his departure, it does paint a clearer picture of what may be in the immediate future. I expect Adam Jones to assume the vacancy in right field and Raul Ibanez to continue patrolling left, though most fans cringe when they picture Ibanez in the outfield. The idea of putting Ibanez at designated hitter is certainly intriguing, but it would cause a chain reaction of questions that would have to be answered regarding the roles of Ben Broussard, Jose Vidro, and Wladamir Balentien (assuming he would get playing time in left).

It's going to be interesting to see what goes down at the Winter Meetings in the next couple of days. I would feel a lot more comfortable if most of the offseason questions are addressed this week; including the rotation. All the advice I can give Mariner fans is pray for terrible things not to happen, brace yourselves for nothing to happen, and hope that something good happens.

And another thing: DING-DONG JEFF WEAVER'S GONE!

Hot Stove: 12/1/07

• Updating previous reports, the Mariners are still waiting for Japanese ace Hiroki Kuroda to make a decision. It has been reported that the Mariners have made the most aggressive offer that would lock him down for four years.

• mlbtraderumors.com reports that the Mariners have been in talks with Jeremy Affeldt's agent. Affeldt, a left-handed pitcher, used to start games for the Kansas City Royals when he came up in 2002 until mid-2004 (and then 9 games in 2006) when he was converted to a reliever. For his career, he has a career ERA of 4.74 and a record of 25-27. Last season was by far his best year on record as he went 4-3 with a 3.51 era in 75 games for the Colorado Rockies. However, those numbers could be misleading because in those 75 games, he only pitched 59 innings which means that he was probably used a lot against left-handed batters. This would make sense since his ERA against those lefty hitters last year was 3.27. When push comes to shove, I don't think that Affeldt would be a good fit for Seattle, mainly because he has had limited success as a starter in the big leagues and has only started nine games in the last three years.

• mlbtraderumors.com also points out that Bavasi doesn't seem to be content with Jose Lopez at second base and may look for other alternatives like Tadahito Iguchi, David Eckstein, and Marcus Giles. They even mentioned a possible trade with the San Francisco Giants where Richie Sexson would be shipped to San Fran in return for washed up second baseman Ray Durham. In regards to that trade, I see no logic behind replacing the up-and-coming Jose Lopez with 36-year old Ray Durham who has never hit over .300 and hit a mere .218 last year. As for signing one of the other free agent second baseman, I am completely against it. I don't understand why management has all of a suddent lost hope in Jose Lopez. He and Yunieski Betancourt are the best double play tandem in the majors and to lose that would be devastating. Sure Lopez has struggled in the second half of the season in his first two years in the bigs, but give him a break! He has already proven to everyone that he can hit, so let's atleast see how he begins the season. Oh by the way, Yung Chi Chen is waiting in the wings and many believe he would be a viable option should Lopez fall on his face.

• The Mariners have the option of offering Jose Guillen an arbitration salary. If Guillen agrees to accept what the Mariners want to pay him, he will be signed through 2008. If he rejects the arbitration offer, he will become an unrestricted free agent. The likely scenario is the latter.