12/9/07

Bullpen Dynamics

In 2007, the Mariners had one of the best bullpens in baseball as well as one of the youngest as minor league talent translated well into major league success. However, towards the end of the year, the bullpen struggled and contributed to the decline of the Mariners sparking several questions about the stability and organization of the bullpen. Who's the legitimate set-up man? Do we need a veteran in the bullpen? How many lefties is too many? In this post, I hope to answer some of those questions and provide a rough plan for the bullpen in 2008.

When it comes to the bullpen, relief pitchers are not created equal. There are vast differences in the various roles that relievers play within the bullpen and it's crucial to understand those roles before plugging guys into certain spots. A bullpen typically consists of the following:

> Long Reliever (LR): This role, sometimes regarded as "mop-up work," is not really a desired role for pitchers, but somebody has to do it. They are used early in the game, usually in the first four innings, when a starting pitcher has to leave the game because of injury, rain delay, fatigue, ejection, or is just being flat-out pummeled. Their goal is usually to keep the game within reach and give the offense a chance to get back in it. Normally, a long reliever is a former starter who has been banished to the bullpen in order to get back on track in a less pressurized situation.

> Middle Reliever (MR): The majority of pitchers in any given bullpen normally classify as middle relief. They are typically used right after a starting pitcher has put forth a mediocre, five or six inning effort. It is hoped that a relief pitcher coming into the game is more effective than the starter and will allow the team to get back into the game if they are behind before it gets too late. Middle relievers are also important because they can be viable options out of the pen which allows the manager to save the late inning guys for specific situations. Often times, young pitchers fresh out of the minor leagues get a chance to audition in middle relief in hopes of landing a more important pitching role.

> Left-handed Specialist (LHS): A left-handed specialist is not necessarily simply a left-handed reliever. The term "specialist" comes from the the idea that they only face one or two batters; usually left-handed hitters. This is because when a left-handed pitcher throws a breaking pitch to a left-handed batter, it will tend to sweep away from the hitter making it more difficult to hit. Since there are more right-handed pitchers, left-handed hitters have less opportunities to bat against left-handers and, therefore, often struggle. Some left-handed specialists take advtantage of this by developing a delivery that intensifies the break on their pitches making it that much harder on the hitters they face. Most teams carry atleast one left-handed specialist in their bullpen and they are typically used in the mid to late innings but can be used earlier to get a big out against good left-handed hitter.

> Right-handed Specialist (RHS): The job description of a right-handed specialist is essentially the same as a left-handed specialist, just flipped around. It is rarer to see a pitcher who is classified into this role simply because no matter what their throwing motion looks like, right-handed hitters have more experience at hitting right-handed pitchers. There are those, like Chad Bradford, who have such an uncommon delivery that they can be an effective right-handed specialist. Usually, this uncommon delivery is in the form of a "submarine" delivery.

> Set-up Man (SET): The setup man is arguably the most important relief pitcher and is used to bridge the gap from the starter or reliever to the closer. This is normally the 8th inning but some setup men who feel comfortable going two innings will come in during the 7th inning. It is not uncommon for a team to have two of these; one left-handed and one right-handed.

> Closer (CL): The closer should be the best pitcher in the bullpen. He is the guy that you want out there with the game on the line, so being consistently dominant is an important characteristic. Being able to go out there whenever the game is on the line comes with a lot of pressure, so a big league closer needs to have a certain attitude that will allow him to deal with that pressure. It's often said that a closer should have a short memory so that he can go out there a day or two after blowing a save and show no signs of it affecting him. Typically, they should have a high level of intensity as well as a one spectacular pitch whether it be a smokin' fastball, a sharp breaking ball, or a splitter that falls right off the shelf. They are used almost exclusively in the 9th inning with their team leading by a small margin.

Candidates: Cha Seung Baek (R), R.A. Dickey (R), Ryan Feierabend (L), Sean Green (R), Jon Huber (R), Cesar Jimenez (L), Mark Lowe (R), Brandon Morrow (R), Eric O'Flaherty (L), John Parrish (L), J.J. Putz (R), Horacio Ramirez (L), Ryan Rowland-Smith (L), George Sherrill (L), Sean White (R), Joseph Woerman (R)

My 2008 Mariners Bullpen (assuming all of the above pitchers are not in the starting rotation):

> LR: Ryan Rowland-Smith (L), R.A. Dickey (R)
> MR: Sean Green (R), Mark Lowe (R), Jon Huber (R)
> LHS: Eric O'Flaherty (L)
> RHS: --
> SET: Brandon Morrow (R), George Sherrill (L)
> CL: J.J. Putz (R)

Do we need to go out and get a veteran for the pen?

No way. Our bullpen was kicking through the first three quarters of the 2007 season up until we did try to bring in some veterans (John Parrish and Rick White). Instead of helping our young guys out, they just brought the bullpen and the team down with poor performances out on the mound. I would have liked to have seen Bill Bavasi go after a guy like Mike Timlin who is a veteran as well as a GOOD PITCHER. It is good to have Norm Charlton as the bullpen coach as he will surely provide a veteran presence.

How many lefties is too many?

I don't want to set a specific number on it, but after acquiring John Parrish last year, there were something like four or five out there in the pen which was certainly too many. My plan calls for 3 of the 9 pitchers to be left-handed.

Who's the legitimate setup man?

I do like the idea of having a left-handed and a right-handed setup man and I think we've got two guys in Morrow and Sherrill who are perfect for that role. Sherrill absolutely dominates lefties and Morrow has the fastball velocity to be effective in the 7th and 8th innings. The only concern with Morrow is his control, but he seemed to improve as the season when on. If Sherrill and or Morrow happens to be traded this offseason, Sean Green would fill the right-handed spot and Eric O'Flaherty would fill the left-handed spot.

3 comments:

Quinn said...

Last year, I saw Sean Green as a right handed specialist to us. It was great to have Sean, George, and JJ in most games to close out the last 2 innings. Last year our record was some 48-2 leading after the 7th inning right? These guys really helped.

The late innings-record only adds fodder to our apparent lack of good SPs.

We can blame our bullpen for last year's fall, but our starting pitching ALL YEAR, (including the last few weeks), was lagging. We could count on Felix, and a lot of the time we could count on Miggy Batista (I know it sounds strange.)

Our bullpen is no concern to me this year, save for if JJ or George goes down onto the DL early on. All these guys are young, and when we pulled in the old farts, it was disastrous. As Patrick noted, John Parrish, Rick White, Chris Reitsma.

Good to see 2/3 gone there.

Anonymous said...

first of all, Mike Timlin was signed by the BoSox already.. I was pushing for him a little bit.

As far as the setup role, I think Sherrill could be the main guy in 2008. his ERA against righties is identical to his against lefties, though its a small sample size. Morrow would be capable but I think that will be revisted is he is unsuccessful as a starter. Sean Green is not overpowering enough to be a setup man. You need dominant guys late in the game. Green is a groundball pitcher and groundballs can sneak through any infield.

Quinn said...

I would prefer a groundball guy to a flyball guy though in late set-up situations.

Especially with gloves like Yuni and Adrian around.