8/2/07

Thursday Quote: Dangerous Decisions

The quote this week comes from American economist and political writer Thomas Sowell. He once said:

"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong."

Lately, the in-game decisions made by Mariner's manager John McLaren have come under close scrutiny and have drawn criticism from the Mariner faithful. But this week, John McLaren has made an even more crucial and controversial decision to bring Adam Jones up from Triple-A Tacoma tomorrow after saying that he doesn't want Adam Jones up with the big club until there is a place for him to play everyday. Speculation is that Jones will be used in a utility role, playing all of the outfield positions when players need rests or pinch hitting later in games. However, this would contradict what John McLaren said before about only promoting him when there is a starting spot open for him. Thinking that McLaren wouldn't intentionally contradict himself, it is obvious that McLaren is being pressured by the front office to bring Jones up, and it seems like he has folded under the pressure and yielded to the front office. To add to the confusion, McLaren has also stated the old adage that "if it ain't broke [the team], don't fix it." But it seems like the front office has went against that wisdom and will bring Jones up for a quick fix.

Several players, including Jose Guillen, have made it clear that the team chemistry right now is very good and the morale is high. Not surprisingly, the rumblings in the clubhouse seem to be that the team is not all in favor of the Jones promotion as they feel it will disrupt the chemistry. A valid argument indeed and one that Bill Bavasi should realize. In the scheme of things it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to bring a rookie up in the middle of a playoff hunt. It would most certainly mean that guys like Jose Vidro and Raul Ibanez, solid veteran players who prove their worth consistently, will be forced to yield at bats to Jones, and in Ibanez's case, duties in the field as well. That is precisely why the move is going to hurt team chemistry, guys are going to arrive at the ballpark wondering if they will be playing that day, and if they're not, trying to figure out how to stay sharp for when they are called upon next. That uncertainty is not something that should be floating around in the club house at this point in the season.

Now we will see how the Jones promotion will pan out. Obviously I'd like to see it work but I can't say I'd be surprised if it contributes to missing the playoffs. I wish the front office and John McLaren would get on the same page with this, but it doesn't seem likely. When you step back and look at the situation, McLaren has to protect his job by satisfying the people above him, the front office and Bill Bavasi. Bill Bavasi has to protect his job by satisfying the owners and the fans. When nearly the entire fan-base is screaming their lungs out to bring Jones up and when the management and ownership above him wants the same thing, he's going to appease them in a heartbeat. Whether the move ends up being a positive one or a negative one, Bavasi can't be criticized for the decision since an overwhelming majority of people want the move to be made. In other words, he won't pay a price for being wrong. And as Thomas Sowell tells us, that way of decision-making, practiced by people who can't be blamed if something turns out poorly, is the most dangerous way to make a decision.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jones could also play SS when yuni gets the day off....

Phil said...

I disagree with you completely here, Patrick. I don't understand how bringing up Jones now would disrupt team chemistry any more than say, trading for a bullpen arm, or a starter. There's no difference, except the fact Jones give the team a very good chance at filling in one of the black holes on the team (Raul Ibanez) both offensively and defensively.

There was a great article up on USS Mariner recently how a lot of the struggles of the pitching staff can be attributed to bad (by bad, I mean horrible) outfield defense. Ichiro is the exception, of course, but Raul and Guillen have been downright awful getting to the ball. Ibanez is about 3 years past being an effective outfielder, and Guillen is running on two very sore ankles, which severely limits his range.

Adam Jones is a very good outfielder. He has taken a huge step forward this year at taking smart routes to balls. Couple that with the fact that he possesses pretty good speed, and you've got a guy who can get to a lot more balls in left field than Raul Ibanez can. Plus, he's got a freaking cannon for an arm.

As Dave at USSM has pointed out on several occasions, no other contending team in baseball has the potential of adding an offensive and defensive upgrade as the Mariners. The biggest trade that went down at the trade deadline this year was the Teixeira to Atlanta trade that saw Saltalamacchia go the other way. Sure, Teix is a huge bat, but he's not a giant upgrade over Salt. Adam Jones is a huge upgrade over Ibanez in all capacities.

I don't want to completely ignore the team chemistry angle of this, but I have to believe that a lot of the players who have been grumbling since Jones' promotion have been players who may see their playing time decrease because of it (Guillen and Ibanez). For the two weeks leading up to the trade deadline, Ibanez went on record on multiple occasions stating that the Mariners have the tools to make it to the playoffs, and "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." But here's the problem: It is broke. If the season ended today, the Mariners wouldn't be making in the playoffs. They need an extra push to get them there. Adam Jones is potentially that push, especially if McLaren did the right thing and really started cutting Ibanez's and Sexson's playing time. Give more at bats to Broussard (.794 OPS) and Jones (.967 OPS in AAA), and great things could happen.

Or McLaren could continue to give playing time to a first baseman with an OPS of .693 and a corner outfielder with an OPS of of .698 in the name of team chemistry.

Brian said...

Another great quote to ponder from my fondest mentor, Jerry Nelson (co-founder of Ticketmaster)..."The biggest risk in life is not taking any."

Personally I don't think the Mariners were gonna make the playoffs without making some sort of move...Calling up Jones is a risk...however, it could be one that pans out...In my view we don't make the playoffs by standing idle anyway and by calling up Jones we take a risk and shake things up. If that risks ends up paying off we make the playoffs...if it doesn't I don't believe it was this risk that cost us the playoffs...I think it could be traced to poor strategical decision making and a team that played over their heads for the entire season...