Trying to Make Sense...

I'm still trying to figure out all this trade rumors crap. To be honest I have no clue what is going on. So I'll list out the sources and what the say about the trade rumors, who should be dealt and why or why it won't work. How does that sound? Me telling you what I believe does you guys no good. Me telling you what the FO says helps a little more (except for the fact that we have good ole' Bill running the team still).

ProSportsDaily (on Bedard) - Only 3 days ago we were reported to be in the lead for Bedard, along with the Reds, but yesterday and today have both opened eyes. Apparently, the Orioles are looking to hang onto Bedard, and it is likely that he won't be dealt and will be the Orioles ace on opening day 2008. It is reported that the GM and the whole FO thinks that Bedard is worth more than just Adam Jones and Brandon Morrow. Both Jones are Morrow are Mariners' FO favorites, and only a couple of days ago the FO has said they won't trade Morrow. Bedard seems out of the question now.

ProSportsDaily (on Santana) - Apparently the Mariners are still in the hunt for landing Johan Santana. A source inside the Mariners organization has said that the Mariners are still very involved and alive in landing Johan Santana. Once again, Morrow and Jones would be in the deal, for sure. I just said that Morrow wouldn't be traded, but to me, this deal makes all the sense in the world. REFER HERE for my past blog on why Morrow, Jones and Clement all make sense for Johan Santana. So blogged today on PSD, the Mariners are still very much alive for Johan Santana.

MLBTradeRumors (on Bedard) - Just another article on Bedard being kept by the Orioles.

MLBTradeRumors (on Santana) - The Yankees are pretty much done with Santana. They (The Twins) are asking for something the Yankees said they wouldn't trade (too many key pitching prospects). If traded, I think Johan is a Red Sox pitcher. However, I'll go along with Peter Gammons and say that Johan Santana isn't traded. I'm not putting any money on that, but I would venture to say that a player of Johan's caliber and asking price is just too high. He'll be a free agent after the season, where he can cash in more money. Signing Silva to 4 years for $48 million didn't help the Mariners cause on Santana when the Twins only offered 3 years and 18 million. If Silva is worth $48 million, what in the hell is Santana worth!? I'll tell you. GOLD. DIAMOND. RUBY. (Insert precious metal or mineral). Santana has a value too extreme for the MLB if Silva is worth $48 million.


This is just the latest. I'll be updating it with every ounce of info I can dig up.
Patrick will post here too if he finds stuff I'm unable to get to.

Silva and Gold

UPDATE: THE MARINERS HAVE SIGNED PITCHER CARLOS SILVA TO A 4 YEAR CONTRACT WORTH $48 MILLION.

MLB.com reports that the Mariners have agreed to terms with starting pitcher Carlos Silva on what is expected to be a 4-year contract worth approximately $44 million. Negotiations seemed to have gone rather quickly, which to me shows that management knows that something had to be done before there was no one left. I have no problems with this contract; the market is thin and we need a decent #4 guy. Silva fits the bill in my opinion.

Silva On The Radar

The Mariners are close to bolstering their weak, but steady rotation.

Carlos Silva, 28, is mulling over his contract offer by the Mariners; the contract is reported to be 4 years worth $44 million. Over the past 3 seasons he has a 2-1 record at Safeco Field, and has won 3 of his 4 career decisions against the Angels. In the past 4 seasons he is 47-45.

In 2007 he was 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA.

The man can also log the innings; he has pitched in at least 180 innings in each of the last 4 years.

This potential signing would not hinder our talks with Bedard, and we are still pursueing Bedard as far as we all know.

I am 100% okay with this, seeing how we don't lose any prospects, and just use the Kuroda money on Silva. This is really a low risk move as far as I can tell.

If you don't see eye-to-eye with me, feel free to leave a comment.

Mariners' Looking To Further Weaken A's

Buster Olney has reported, according to MLB Trade Rumors, that the Mariners' are currently in a bidding war for the Oakland A's right handed starter Joe Blanton.

Olney believes that Adam Jones would have to be thrown into the mix in order for the A's to part ways with Blanton. Personally, I have a problem throwing Jones' potential around for a guy with a career 4.10 ERA and a K/9 that is under 6, at 5.24. But, once again, I'm not Bavasi.

The only reason I'm for going for him is our obvious need for pitching, and he'll cost significantly less than Bedard or Santana.

Other teams that may be looking at him include the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets.

This is fairly recent so I expect to hear more as time goes on.

Filling 1st Base

With Ben Broussard gone, sadly, because of a worthless deal, we don't have a back-up for when Sexson folds in May or gets traded to a contender who needs potential power. I have a solution. Tony Clark.

Clark is an imposing figure, standing 6'7" and weighing in at 245 pounds. The guy is a swith-hitting power bat who has more power success from the left side of the plate. A pull, power hitter is what Seattle has always lacked in Safeco. The fact that he's a switch hitter makes him all the more appealing because once Sexson hits the wall, Clark can fill in full time, hitting against both lefties and righties. When given playing time, Clark has been a successful power bat. Every year that he's played more than 130 games, he's hit more than 30 home runs. I won't lie, the guy strikes out quite a bit, about 1/4 of the time, but not like we haven't seen that in Sexson. Honestly, he can't do worse than Sexson did last year.

With a career slugging percentage of about .500, an on-base percentage of about .350 and batting average of about .265, he's not a huge risk because he won't command Sexson like money for a 2-year deal. He's made just over 1 million in each of the last two years. With his age, 35, he won't be able to ask for much more than that, if at all. I say we take the chance after losing our back-up, Broussard.

I learned today that the Diamondbacks have pulled their two-year offer off the table because of the Chris Burke pick-up in the Jose Valverde trade.

Thoughts?

Two More Options to Help the Rotation

We all knew going into the offseason that the pickings would be slim this year when it came to acquiring starting pitching. Short of pulling off a blockbuster trade for Santana or Bedard, we all knew that there wasn't a great chance of the Mariners improving their rotation much past mediocre. That being said there are still some free agent pitchers available that could be viable options as 4 or 5 starters for the Mariners next year. After losing out on Kuroda and trade talks seemingly going nowhere right now the Mariners should persue two of the few healthy free agent starters left, Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse.

While neither of these guys is likely to come to the Mariners and turn them into instant contenders I think they could be more viable options than fixing our problems from within.

Here's a look at both pitchers:

Carlos Silva:
55-46, 4.31 ERA, 102 ERA +, 1.36 WHIP, 259 G, 125 GS, 5 CG, 945 IP, 1122 H, 489 R, 171 BB, 395 SO

While those numbers aren't absolutely stunning they aren't bad either. An above .500 career record, sub 5.00 ERA and ERA + of just over 100 are pretty good traits for a potential 4/5 starter. The worst thing about Silva is most likely going to be the price tag. Right now he's one of the best healthy free agents pitchers available in a slim market with lots of suitors. This will no doubt drive the price of Silva up. The potential of another Weaver disaster is there with Silva but I think that at this point the Mariners could have no choice but to aggresively pursue him.

Kyle Lohse:
63-74, 4.57 ERA, 95 ERA +, 1.443 WHIP, 218 G, 195 GS, 6 CG, 1164 IP, 1302 H, 664 R, 365 BB, 734 SO

These number are clearly inferior to Silva's. A sub .500 win percentage, sub 100 ERA+ and 1.443 WHIP are far from great. The risk is even greater for the Mariners in signing Lohse. I can see Jeff Weaver written all over Lohse. Lohse would be my second choice behind Silva. Hopefully Lohse would come cheaper than Silva but in this years free agent market it probably wouldn't be much cheaper.

These are two more options for the Mariners that would keep them from having to go with some combination of Morrow, Baek, RRS and Dickey as the 4 and 5 starters. Of course the Mariners could always go really risky and high price and persue Bartolo Colon or Livan Hernandez...

Prior would only be a thorn in our side

Talk of the possibility of signing Mark Prior after he was not tendered a contract earlier this week has heated up now that Kuroda has signed a 3-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Many seem to think that signing Prior would be one of those low risk, high reward types of scenarios when, in fact, it is moderate risk with minimal or no reward. The Kane County Chronicle out of Illinois reports that "Prior, still recovering from mid-April arthroscopic shoulder surgery, will likely miss some, if not all, of the 2008 season – forced the Cubs’ decision."

This claim is backed up by Rotoworld who says, "Prior was non-tendered by the Cubs earlier this week and likely won't be ready to pitch until several months into the season following shoulder surgery."

I'm not sure about this, but my gut tells me that the Mariner fans who are pushing for Prior are not privy to these details. If they are indeed aware of the extent of Prior's injuries, I'm baffled as to why they would still call upon management to sign him...

What are we supposed to think if the M's inked Prior? If we signed him, does that mean we expect him to be in our rotation? Would we lose our vigor (if we have any) in pursuing other options?

The bottom line is that we have two rotation spots that we need to fill so that we don't have to call upon Ho, Dickey, and Feierabend Associates. If we signed Prior, we would STILL have two rotation spots that we would need to fill! There is absolutely no sense in pursuing a pitcher who may not even pitch next season. To show you just how hopeless he is for next season, you need not look any farther than the fact that the Cubs declined to offer him salary arbitration where he would have made about $3 million. Even the Cubs, who considered Prior to be the future of the organization, cut ties with him.

This prior has fallen off the rosebush. We are best to let it lay upon the ground and be trampled by the busy footsteps of general managers frantically looking for pitchers...

Kuroda to L.A. for $36-40?

>Update: The Dodgers have announced a press conference for noon pacific time tomorrow to announce that they have signed Hiroki Kuroda to a 3-year contract worth$35.3 million.

The newest report from the Los Angeles Daily News indicates that Hiroki Kuroda is currently working on finalizing a three year deal with the Dodgers after completing his physical earlier today. This information is pretty damning evidence of what Mariner fans have been fretting about over the last few days, especially since the report even states the hospital where Kuroda was examined; Centinela Hospital. Surprisingly, the deal is said to be worth more money than expected though still only for three years; $36-40 million, which means $12-13.3 million a year.

It's pretty amazing that Kuroda has chosen the Dodgers over the Mariners. Think about this... He is going to a place where there is really no Japanese influence in the community and no prominent Japanese players on the team. Furthermore, he apparently believes that the Dodgers have a better chance to win than the Mariners even though the Mariners won 6 more games than L.A. in 2007! In addition, we sent an envoy inlcuding Bavasi and McLaren to Japan to meet with Kuroda; something I don't believe any other team has done. All things considered, I wonder if Kuroda is just that impressed by L.A. or if our front office just really did a poor job. So what if we may have had to add another $1-2 million bucks a year! I don't think there is another team in baseball with no viable 4th or 5th starter!

By the way, here is what MLB.com says about the Dodgers: "The fifth starter will come from a group of candidates that includes Jason Schmidt and Esteban Loaiza." Wow, what an awesome dilemma to have...

AL West gets a little bit easier

Today, the Oakland A's and Billy Beane sent 2007 Cy Young hopeful Dan Haren to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The only big name in the deal was Dan Haren; the rest were either spot starters, minor leagues or people with little MLB experience. I love that this happened. But then again, Beane always finds ways of putting a team on the field that can compete.

Here's a look at the entire deal:

Oakland To Receive From Arizona:
Brett Anderson - LHP
Dana Eveland - LHP
Greg Smith - LHP
Chris Carter - INF
Aaron Cunningham - OF
Carlos Gonzalez - OF

Arizona To Receive From Oakland:
Dan Harn - RHP
Connor Robertson - RHP

Arizona To Receive From Houston:
Chad Qualls - RP
Chris Burke - INF
Juan Guttierez - RHP

Houston To Receive From Arizona:
Jose Valverde


This trade, as it would to any staff, completely destroys the front of the rotation. With shotty end of the rotation pitchers, the A's have to deal with Joe Blanton's inconsistencies and Rich Harden's yearly injury at the front of the rotation.

It's a good day to be a Mariners fan.

Could this weekend get any better?

**Dreams of waking up to find out that Johan Santana has become a Mariner and Adam Jones was traded away so he can become a bust with the Twins**

One Man's Push for Mark Prior

Mark Prior is now a free agent after being non-tendered by the Cubs and I would be ecstatic if the Mariners signed him. What do the Mariners need right now? Starting pitching. What is Mark Prior? A starting pitcher once billed as the best thing since Rodger Clemens. First we’ll look at our own rotation and then at Mark Prior and why he fits.

Our rotation, at this point, is essentially 3 men deep with Felix, Washburn, and Batista leaving two spots open. Of the guys looking for the last two spots none impress me all that much. Cha Baek, Ryan Feierabend, Brandon Morrow, Horacio Ramirez and R.A. Dickey come to mind as the guys that will fill those last two spots. Cha Beak and Dickey would be an alright bottom of the rotation starters but the other three should not be in the majors at this point. Morrow has been pitching well in his winter instructional league but that is mostly AA guys and I believe he should probably start out the season in AAA and work his way up to the majors where he will be installed in the rotation. Feierabend is a guy who is fine to have around in AAA in case of injury on the big league club that necessitates a starter to be called up, but he should not be part of your rotation permanently at this point in his career, maybe later. Ho is horrible, the Mariners say that Stottlemyre can work with him and make him better but when the pitching coach has nothing to work with he can’t do much for you. I mean seriously, the guys has a career ERA+ of 93 where 100 is average, the guy is bad. I can see R.A. Dickey doing fairly well in Safeco field with that knuckleball of his that forces most to beat the ball into the ground and the players who can elevate the knuckler will probably be disappointed as Safeco’s outfield gobbles them up. Looking at Dickey’s AAA stats, as a starter, from last year(22 starts, 146.1 IP, 3 CG, 1.73 GO/AO, 99 K’s, 58 BB’s) he looks like he could translate into our 4th/5th starter. So if we look completely within the organization to fill our rotation it will look something like this, Felix, Washburn, Batista, with some combo of Baek, HoRam, and Dickey filling out the last three spots(Baek and Dickey would be my personal choices) with Morrow and Feierabend in AAA.

Mark Prior. He’s had some injury problems but most of them are flukes. One injury came after a collision with Marcus Giles, another came after a line drive off of the bat of Brad Hawpe, but the most serious injury was back at the beginning of 2006 when he had ‘strained’ his shoulder. Its is believed that the Cubs had misdiagnosed this injury, which also landed Prior on the DL later that year and was called shoulder tendinitis this time around, while there was actual structural damage to his shoulder that was repaired by Dr. James Andrews. If we assume that Prior’s shoulder has healed and he can now pitch I see no reason he couldn’t go out there and put up and ERA of about 3.50, which would be a great addition to a pitching staff looking for quality arms to go in the front of the rotation. With Prior the M’s staff now looks like something that might be able to compete with Felix, Prior, Washburn, Batista, and Dickey/HoRam/Baek(With Dickey being my first choice).

The Mariners are in desperate need of quality starting pitchers and Mark Prior will fill that need. Prior’s addition to the rotation would rid us of HoRam, it would allow Morrow to get experience starting in the minors before returning to the big show as a permanent fixture, and it would add a possibly dominating pitcher to the front of our rotation without giving up our prospects. Mark Prior has my stamp of approval.

As position players disperse, focus turns to pitching

On the day that the Mitchell Report is set to be released naming approximately 70 to 80 players with links to steroids, it has been a pretty active day in the Hot Stove League. So far we've seen the disintegrating Orioles deal their disgruntled shortstop Miguel Tejada to the Astros in return for a 5 player package of major league ready but hardly impressive prospects including outfielder Luke Scott and pitcher Matt Albers. It kind of makes me happy that Miguel Tejada didn't really work out for the Orioles because if you'll remember back to a couple offseasons ago, the M's and the O's duked it out to sign the then free agent Tejada. Wooo that was a close one! Could you imagine... well, don't try to imagine; it's been bad enough watching Beltre and Sexson underperform.

But I digress. Today, we've also seen the Giants sign outfielder Aaron Rowand to a 5 year / $60 mil. contract, Andruw Jones officially tie the knot with the Dodgers, Crag Monroe hook on with the Twins, the Cubs and Fukudome agree to terms, and the Rays come close to signing Cliff Floyd to a one year deal. What does all of this mean? Well with position players being traded and snatched up, the focus for most teams will surely turn to starting pitching. The pursuit of pitching should be aided by the fact that the non-tender deadline is tonight and teams could be making room and setting themselves up to make a splash in the market. How this will end up for the Mariners is yet to be seen and a lot could be at stake tonight; there is a possibility that the Mariners will decide to non-tender Ben Broussard effectively making him a free agent as well as the possibility that the much anticipated decision from Japanese pitcher Hiroki Kuroda will come in the next 24 to 48 hours. Hopefully Bill Bavasi plays OUR cards right and does something that will benefit the team.

Stay on top of things in the next couple days; check back with Mariner Nation for everything you need to know.

The Off-Season May Have Just Gotten Interesting For The Mariners

Time: as I type is 9:05 WCT
Time the blog was posted: 8:10 WCT
Subject: Hiroki Kuroda

Apparently a source very close to the Kuroda signing says that the Dodgers have gotten Kuroda's services. It is not official on any mlb site, or the Dodgers home page, but it was posted by a source close to the deal (he was actually in Japan, apparently) says that Kuroda says the Dodgers will be his team in 2008. This is shocking because the Mariners have a stronger Japanese circle of influence (Seattle, Ichiro, Kenji) and we offered more money (undisclosed). I really don't know why Kuroda would rather pitch for the Dodgers for less money, but that wasn't my decision. Geoff Baker's blog on the Seattle Times website says that this is untrue, but from 3 other rumor sites, his is the only one I've said that the deal wasn't true, and that it may be another week before Kuroda makes his decision. So, think what you want, and believe what you want. So, I'm making this blog a hypothetical blog now (since according to Baker, Kuroda wasn't signed).

Now, this makes Bavasi's job a lot more stressful. He now knows he must push for Bedard or Santana (let's pray it is Santana). He must decide who is tradeable, who is untradeable, who is untouchable, and work out a deal that won't give up too much or a deal that goes dead because he offers too little. Let's hope Bavasi knows where this line is.

Johan Santana
Santana is going to be the easier in terms of trade agreement, because the Twins haven't asked for as much as the Orioles. However, he has a full no-trade clause, and has said he doesn't want to be a Mariners pitcher. Now, he needs a new contract also... From baseball history in the era of greed, we know any player will sign for x ammount of money. With deeps pockets for owners, the Mariners could shed the money. I see this getting easier if we can somehow shed Sexson in the deal (lots of money, little performance). Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Jeff Clement may be too much, in some people's opinion, but to me, the deal makes total sense. Aside from the Red Sox, in Ellsbury, the Twins won't find another young CF with immense potential. This also makes sense in that Morrow could go either way as a starter or a closer. They lose Santana, they get Morrow to start. Joe Nathan's contract is up soon, so if he goes, they have Morrow to step in and close. The Twins have discussed moving Mauer to 1st, left or DH to save his legs. Clement can step in and catch, and hit too. Justin Morneau's contract ends soon, and if he wants to leave, Clement or Mauer could step into 1st. The Mariners need a starter. Why not get the best pitcher on the planet? His numbers and his awards (2 of the last 4 Cy Young awards) say this also. He is 100% proven on the mound, and he's left handed. I love this scenario. I really hope it is explored.

Erik Bedard
The other option, and more difficult one, is Erik Bedard. The Orioles are asking more for Bedard, since he is not in his contract year. His contract ends after the 2009 season, so the Orioles aren't in a rush to deal him. The only way I see this easier than Santana is that an Orioles scout and front office man said the Mariners are "a logical and easy fit for Bedard." Those aren't worded perfect, but it is a paraphrase, since the quote was about a paragraph. Bedard would also have to be signed. I don't want a two year rent-a-player. That would be bogus. He is a high price. Jones, Morrow, George Sherrill and Wladimir Balentien is the asking price, and that only seems to go up. I don't like giving up Jones (future Mike Cameron) or Wladimir (future Manny Ramirez), let alone in the same deal! The Orioles are out of their mind if they think they will pry away both of those players in the same deal. Also, Bedard hasn't had any measure of success outside of his last 2 years as a starter. He isn't as proven, and I venture to say he isn't even fully proven. He is left-handed though, so it wouldn't be a total blow below the belt to the Mariners organization if we ended up with him. Either way, he's an upgrade over Weaver and HoRam. I, still, would push for Santana.

Now, it is up to Bavasi to get off his butt if this rumor about Kuroda is really 100% true. I guess we will find out soon...

Winter Meetings: Newest Developments

UPDATED 12/6 @ 8:21 AM EASTERN / 5:21 AM PACIFIC

• Hiroki Kuroda: Reports indicate that Kuroda will visit Seattle, Arizona, and LA (Dodgers) before making a decision. These are three of the four supposed finalists with the other thought to be the Mets. Originally, it was thought that all teams involved had offered around 3 years/30 million for Kuroda; but Geoff Baker now believes that the Mariners have indeed added a fourth year to the offer. If this is the case, expect the Dodgers to do the same.
• Raul Ibanez: The Cubs and the Indians have shown interest in Ibanez. mlbtraderumors.com mentions the possibility of the Mariners acquiring starting pitcher Cliff Lee from the Indians inreturn for Raul. If Japanese import Fukudome signs with the Cubs, don't expect Ibanez to be heading to Chicago. If they don't sign him, however, Keep your eyes on starting pitcher Sean Marshall.
• Darin Erstad: Rotoworld reports that the Mariners are one of atleast four teams who have inquired about 1B/OF/DH Darin Erstad of the White Sox. At this point in time, the Mariners have absolutely no use for Erstad so I'm not sure why he's being brought up besides the fact that Bavasi was GM in Anaheim the same time that Erstad played there.
• Richie Sexson: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Mariners are intent on trading Richie Sexson and names the Orioles, Giants, Devil Rays, and Yankees as possible candidates for his services. A report a couple days ago mentioned a deal with San Francisco that would send Sexson to the Giants in return for Ray Durham. Seattle would most likely have to pay atleast part of Sexson's 08 salary if he is traded anywhere. Since Broussard was apparently offered to the Rays for Edwin Jackson (deal was rejected by TB), Sexson is probably safe for the time being.
• Edwin Jackson: The Mariners are reportedly interested in starting pitcher Edwin Jackson of the Devil Rays. This isn't really surprisng considering his name was tossed around at the 07 trading deadline. Originally, a Broussard for Jackson swap seemed possible until the Seattle Times reported that the Rays had rejected this deal. The word seems to be that Tampa Bay may want catcher prospect Rob Johnson as well as Broussard.
• Matt Clement: The Mariners are one of at least three teams who have shown interest in starting pitcher Matt Clement.
• Erik Bedard: The Mariners are now one of three teams pushing aggressively for Orioles ace Erik Bedard along with the Mets and Dodgers. A deal would probably be centered around some type of combination of Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, Wlad Balentien, and George Sherrill and would likely not involve Jeff Clement as the O's don't need a catcher. There are at least eleven other teams pursuing Bedard though an O's source said Seattle may be the best fit.
• Marcus Giles: The free agent second baseman has drawn interest from the Mariners, the Rockies, and atleast one other NL team. He would command around 4 million dollars a year and should the Mariners sign him, he would be used to challenge Jose Lopez for the starting position at second base or allow the M's to deal Lopez to another team (though not likely).
• Ben Sheets: It seems as if this rumor is just about dead and the Mariners are no longer looking into Ben Sheets though they have met with the Brewers; possibly about other pitchers like Chris Capuano.
• ???: A report on mlbtraderumors.com mentions that the GM of the Cardinals, John Mozeliak, met with the Mariners today as well as the Brewers (regarding Rolen [STL]), the Orioles (regarding Tejada [BAL]), and the Brewers (regarding Anthony Reyes [STL] and Edmonds [STL]). I doubt the conversations with Seattle involved Rolen or Edmonds, but possibly young starter Anthony Reyes.
• Mark Loretta: The Mariners have talked to Mark Loretta's agent about signing the veteran second baseman and using him as a utility infielder. mlbtraderumors.com figures the M's would be willing to pay him around 2 million dollars. The Rockies seem to be the more likely choice for Loretta should he reject arbitration from the Astros.
• Tim Linceum: It's been reported that the Mariners have been linked to San Francisco's young starting pitcher Tim Linceum. While Giants GM Brian Sabean is not shopping Linceum, the M's could put together a package including Richie Sexson. Don't put too much stock in this one...
• Ben Broussard: Two teams seem interested; the Giants and the Rangers. They may wait to see if the Mariners tender him a contract or not.
• Jose Lopez: Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has reported that the Mariners are using Jose Lopez as trade bait. The Nationals, Giants, Rockies and Twins are teams in need of a second baseman.
• David Wells: The Mariners and the Reds are considering the veteran starter. Call it being desperate or call it covering all bases... It's just not a good idea.
• George Sherrill: Bill Bavasi has mentioned that several teams have shown interest in the left-handed specialist.
• Geoff Jenkins: The Seattle Times reports that the Mariners have been in contact with the agent of leftfielder Geoff Jenkins. He seems to only be a possibility if Ibanez or Sexson is traded.
• Johan Santana: It is assumed that the Mariners will finally be able to begin negotiations with the Twins over the hottest commodity this offseason; Johan Santana. Previously, it seemed as if the Twins were only interested in talking with the Red Sox and the Yankees. Now that the Yankees and Red Sox are moving out of the picture, it would make sense for other interested teams to jump in. The Mariners would most likely put together a package of Brandon Morrow, Adam Jones, and Jeff Clement, though maybe not in their initial offer.

Baltimore Not in Bedard's Future

The Washington Post reported that left-handed pitcher Erik Bedard has told the Baltimore Orioles that he has no intentions of signing a contract extension to remain in Baltimore, increasing the chances that he might be traded sooner rather than later. There are disagreements among the baseball community about what it would cost to acquire Bedard from the O's with some reports saying that the Orioles would want four prospects for him; more than the Twins want for Santana. A Baltimore Sun article yesterday reported that the Mariners are one of six teams that have expressed interest in Bedard, along with the Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Diamondbacks. One would have to figure that the Red Sox will get into the mix sooner or later. The consensus at the Winter Meetings is that the Orioles would like to make some fundamental changes so keep your eye on Bedard.

Cubs Interested in Ibanez?

Chicago Cubs GM Jim Hendry has made his apirations to acquire a left-handed bat quite clear this offseason and the name Raul Ibanez has been tossed around as a potential candidate. It's hard to gauge where management stands on Raul Ibanez and if they consider Wladamir Balentien to be ready for a full-time job in the big leagues. The Cubs have also toyed with the idea of trading Mark Prior before they have to tender him a contract for the 2008 season in about a week. If the Mariners are willing to take a risk on Mark Prior and hope that he can get healthy and then stay healthy, I wouldn't be completely surprised if the two teams struck a deal involving Prior and Ibanez.

Santana Makes Ultimatum

According to the Providence Journal, Johan Santana has told the Twins that he would not only use his no trade clause to block any trade during the season, but that he would use it in the coming week on any deal involving a team not named the Yankees or the Red Sox. This effectively puts an end to any hope Mariner fans had of acquiring the All Star southpaw this offseason.

Meanwhile, the Mariners contingent arrived in Nashville the other day for the annual Winter Meetings that are set to begin today and continue through Wednesday. Keep checking back with Mariner Nation for news and analysis of the Winter Meetings.

Mariners Decline Arbitration on Guillen, Others

Rotoworld reported early this morning that the Mariners declined to offer arbitration to Jose Guillen, Jeff Weaver, Arthur Rhodes, and Chris Retisma. Obviously the big news here is Jose Guillen and the fact that the Mariners did not want to take a chance on him accepting arbitration according to Rotoworld. While many fans seem to be emotionally distraught with his departure, it does paint a clearer picture of what may be in the immediate future. I expect Adam Jones to assume the vacancy in right field and Raul Ibanez to continue patrolling left, though most fans cringe when they picture Ibanez in the outfield. The idea of putting Ibanez at designated hitter is certainly intriguing, but it would cause a chain reaction of questions that would have to be answered regarding the roles of Ben Broussard, Jose Vidro, and Wladamir Balentien (assuming he would get playing time in left).

It's going to be interesting to see what goes down at the Winter Meetings in the next couple of days. I would feel a lot more comfortable if most of the offseason questions are addressed this week; including the rotation. All the advice I can give Mariner fans is pray for terrible things not to happen, brace yourselves for nothing to happen, and hope that something good happens.

And another thing: DING-DONG JEFF WEAVER'S GONE!

Hot Stove: 12/1/07

• Updating previous reports, the Mariners are still waiting for Japanese ace Hiroki Kuroda to make a decision. It has been reported that the Mariners have made the most aggressive offer that would lock him down for four years.

• mlbtraderumors.com reports that the Mariners have been in talks with Jeremy Affeldt's agent. Affeldt, a left-handed pitcher, used to start games for the Kansas City Royals when he came up in 2002 until mid-2004 (and then 9 games in 2006) when he was converted to a reliever. For his career, he has a career ERA of 4.74 and a record of 25-27. Last season was by far his best year on record as he went 4-3 with a 3.51 era in 75 games for the Colorado Rockies. However, those numbers could be misleading because in those 75 games, he only pitched 59 innings which means that he was probably used a lot against left-handed batters. This would make sense since his ERA against those lefty hitters last year was 3.27. When push comes to shove, I don't think that Affeldt would be a good fit for Seattle, mainly because he has had limited success as a starter in the big leagues and has only started nine games in the last three years.

• mlbtraderumors.com also points out that Bavasi doesn't seem to be content with Jose Lopez at second base and may look for other alternatives like Tadahito Iguchi, David Eckstein, and Marcus Giles. They even mentioned a possible trade with the San Francisco Giants where Richie Sexson would be shipped to San Fran in return for washed up second baseman Ray Durham. In regards to that trade, I see no logic behind replacing the up-and-coming Jose Lopez with 36-year old Ray Durham who has never hit over .300 and hit a mere .218 last year. As for signing one of the other free agent second baseman, I am completely against it. I don't understand why management has all of a suddent lost hope in Jose Lopez. He and Yunieski Betancourt are the best double play tandem in the majors and to lose that would be devastating. Sure Lopez has struggled in the second half of the season in his first two years in the bigs, but give him a break! He has already proven to everyone that he can hit, so let's atleast see how he begins the season. Oh by the way, Yung Chi Chen is waiting in the wings and many believe he would be a viable option should Lopez fall on his face.

• The Mariners have the option of offering Jose Guillen an arbitration salary. If Guillen agrees to accept what the Mariners want to pay him, he will be signed through 2008. If he rejects the arbitration offer, he will become an unrestricted free agent. The likely scenario is the latter.

Pursuit of Johan Santana

Introduction:
So as we should all know, the Mariners are still in the running for landing Johan Santana. Now, let's get past the obvious, it is going to cost some serious money. However, let's think about this. The Mariners are in desperate need of an upgrade in their rotation, and what better way to start than by getting the best pitcher on the planet?

Numbers:
Santana is a winner. In his 4 full seasons as a starter Santana is 70-32, with an average ERA in those 4 season that is an astounding 2.89. Those are unheard of. Let's delve further into the stats. His total strikeouts in that 4 year run total 983, compared to just 198 walks. People, that is almost a 5 K/BB ratio. For a power pitcher, that is rediculous. We haven't seen numbers like those since Pedro Martinez's run with the Boston Red Sox. His years there, he was Cy Young. Johan Santana has won 2 of the last 4 Cy Young Awards. In the crunch, he is even better. In the last 4 season he has a Post-All Star record of 36-14. Coincidence: The Mariners fold in the 2nd half every team our name has a playoff lable on it!

Intangibles:
Safeco Field would be the perfect fit for Santana. Safeco Field favors the left handed pitcher, well, even pitchers in general. However, the left hander is dominant in Safeco. Johan, is a dominant left handed pitcher. Love? Next, and maybe less of Santana and more of his catcher, but in his 4 years as starter, Santana has allowed 20 stolen bases, and 22 men have been caught stealing. Yes, over 50% of base runners have been caught during his full time starting tenure. One less man on base is one less runner and one less potential run. Next, Santana is a workhorse. In those 4 years as the starter in Minnesota, Santana has logged 912.1 innings, or 228 innings per year. That averages out at about 7 innings per game, also. The sooner we can get the ball from Santana to Putz, the better chance we have at winning.

The Price:
It is reported that he is seeking 5 years and $126 million. Yeah, I won't lie, that is a lot of money. However, let us think about this. The numbers have already shown you what he can do. Here is the real question: How badly to the Mariners want to win and what is the price of winning? To me, the price of winning is $126 million. Yes, Johan Santana is worth every penny. He has been the most dominant pitcher in the last 4 years, and you can argue 5 (he began starting about half way through 2003, but didn't hold onto a full time spot until 2004.) Santana is a once in a decade, one in a career (front office career) type offer.

The price isn't limited to money. The Twins have outlined that they would like Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Jeff Clement. To some people, this may seem like too much to trade away. I however, say it is would be worth it. Let's look at this: None of them are nowhere as proven in the MLB as Santana.

Adam Jones has struggled in his two stints with the big club, and struggled mightily. He has been extremely unsuccessful at the plate, showing little discipline, and has struggled to use his power. In the field, I don't know what is going on. He's supposed to be great, but he's been making routine plays seem like highlight reel catches. He has been compared to the greatest Mariner ever, Ken Griffey Jr. That is setting him up for failure. Not to mention, Torri Hunter just left the Twins, so center is wide open for Adam Jones to take over.

Brandon Morrow has seen time, has been demoted, promoted, and anything in between. He has struggled with his control, and is about as streaky as they come. I don't know what they would do with Morrow, meaning, I don't know if they would keep him in the bullpen or convert him to the starting rotation, but either way, they gain an electric arm.

Jeff Clement has never really rubbed me right until his September callup. When McLaren went nuts with playing the Rainiers against the MLB I thought he was stupid. I saw Clement's numbers [in AAA] and thought he would die. He proved me wrong. I saw both of his home runs at Safeco, and he looked extremely impressive. With the possibility of Joe Mauer being moved to an every day spot to save his knees, Clement would fit in perfect in Minnesota.

Outside Sources:
Buster Olney (of ESPN) posted a blog (Insider: Free, recently made "unfree") saying that a Santana trade seems impossible. The impossible factor was the money. Nobody is sure whether or not the Twins will be able to resign Santana. If resigned then traded, that will save money. (IE - Carlos Zambrano, who could command more money than Santana.) If not resigned by Santana, that is where it gets insanely disgusting. He could run up the table more. His $126 million was his Twins counter-offer. On an open market, he's free game.

Larry Larue (of The Tacoma News Tribune) posted a article on the money aspect of free agency and trades. He referenced Santana and the money he commanded. He said, "The Mariners and a half-dozen other teams still have interest in trading for Santana, but each of them took a large gulp after hearing that figure. Now, to obtain Santana it will take a package of ready-for-prime-time talent – and $126 million." The Mariners fit every checkmark. First, we have been mentioned in the running. Second, we have ready-for-prime time talent. All three guys have seen time in the MLB. Finally, the money. Okay, don't get me wrong, it will cost us. But, is there a price on winning? We are owned by Nintendo, so, if we are ever short on money, we can take a loan from the only gaming system currently making money. Coincidence? I only hope.

Finale:
Now, here is what I really mean. I want Johan Santana. I want somebody to teach Felix how to pitch, and a Johan/Felix 1-2 punch would be a top-of-the-line rotation. I am in love with the guy on the mound. He is putting on one of the most dominant runs in baseball in the last 30 years. He has been lights out and consistent, about as good as it comes.

My Summary
I want Johan Santana.

Another Opinion; (An Opposition To Johan):
Fellow learned blogger, Jon:
http://theseattlemariners.blogspot.com/2007/11/cost-of-johan-santana.html

Sources:
Johan Santana stats:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4280
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4280

Tacoma News Tribune:
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/212490.html

Miscellaneous:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3121887

Hot Stove: 11/25/07

-Randy Wolf, possibly one of the better free agent pitchers out there, has received a contract offer from the Philadelphia Phillies. Wolf pitched for the Phillies before signing a contract for his favorite team growing up, the Dodgers, in a injury plagued season in 2007. Delaware Online reports that Wolf often watched Phillies games while with the Dodgers, kept in contact with Phillies players and the "Wolf pack" who cheered him on from the upper deck at Citizens Bank Park. In my opinion, all signs point to him rejoining the Phillies so cross Wolf off the Mariners list (if he was there in the first place).

-Delaware Online has also reported that the Phillies have offered Hiroki Kuroda a contract. They do recognize that it is a long shot and that Seattle is probably the top contender for his services. Something I didn't know, Kuroda's agent, Joe Urbon, is based in Seattle.

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071125/SPORTS01/711250386/1021