Silva On The Radar

The Mariners are close to bolstering their weak, but steady rotation.

Carlos Silva, 28, is mulling over his contract offer by the Mariners; the contract is reported to be 4 years worth $44 million. Over the past 3 seasons he has a 2-1 record at Safeco Field, and has won 3 of his 4 career decisions against the Angels. In the past 4 seasons he is 47-45.

In 2007 he was 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA.

The man can also log the innings; he has pitched in at least 180 innings in each of the last 4 years.

This potential signing would not hinder our talks with Bedard, and we are still pursueing Bedard as far as we all know.

I am 100% okay with this, seeing how we don't lose any prospects, and just use the Kuroda money on Silva. This is really a low risk move as far as I can tell.

If you don't see eye-to-eye with me, feel free to leave a comment.

As position players disperse, focus turns to pitching

On the day that the Mitchell Report is set to be released naming approximately 70 to 80 players with links to steroids, it has been a pretty active day in the Hot Stove League. So far we've seen the disintegrating Orioles deal their disgruntled shortstop Miguel Tejada to the Astros in return for a 5 player package of major league ready but hardly impressive prospects including outfielder Luke Scott and pitcher Matt Albers. It kind of makes me happy that Miguel Tejada didn't really work out for the Orioles because if you'll remember back to a couple offseasons ago, the M's and the O's duked it out to sign the then free agent Tejada. Wooo that was a close one! Could you imagine... well, don't try to imagine; it's been bad enough watching Beltre and Sexson underperform.

But I digress. Today, we've also seen the Giants sign outfielder Aaron Rowand to a 5 year / $60 mil. contract, Andruw Jones officially tie the knot with the Dodgers, Crag Monroe hook on with the Twins, the Cubs and Fukudome agree to terms, and the Rays come close to signing Cliff Floyd to a one year deal. What does all of this mean? Well with position players being traded and snatched up, the focus for most teams will surely turn to starting pitching. The pursuit of pitching should be aided by the fact that the non-tender deadline is tonight and teams could be making room and setting themselves up to make a splash in the market. How this will end up for the Mariners is yet to be seen and a lot could be at stake tonight; there is a possibility that the Mariners will decide to non-tender Ben Broussard effectively making him a free agent as well as the possibility that the much anticipated decision from Japanese pitcher Hiroki Kuroda will come in the next 24 to 48 hours. Hopefully Bill Bavasi plays OUR cards right and does something that will benefit the team.

Stay on top of things in the next couple days; check back with Mariner Nation for everything you need to know.

Igawa's Name Surfacing Again

mlbtraderumors.com has listed the Mariners as a team who may have interest in trading for the disgruntled Yankee. Should Kuroda sign elsewhere, the Mariners may look to deal for Igawa since he is extremely inexpensive as far as contracts go (owed 4 mil a year thru 2011) and will probably not cost a lot on the market due to his struggles thus far in the states coupled with the fact that the Yankees don't have a rotation spot available for him. If he is unsuccessful, we can simply do what the Yankees did, demote him to the minors. Four million dollars a year is miniscule compared to what other guys are making and he could potentially be a diamond in the rough who just hasn't been in the right situation to thrive in New York. The chances of the Mariners having two Japanese starters in the rotation next year are slim, so I expect a deal would only be considered if Kuroda signs elsewhere.

Speaking of Kuroda, he recently said that he has not made a decision yet and has to carefully think about his future.

Pursuit of Johan Santana

Introduction:
So as we should all know, the Mariners are still in the running for landing Johan Santana. Now, let's get past the obvious, it is going to cost some serious money. However, let's think about this. The Mariners are in desperate need of an upgrade in their rotation, and what better way to start than by getting the best pitcher on the planet?

Numbers:
Santana is a winner. In his 4 full seasons as a starter Santana is 70-32, with an average ERA in those 4 season that is an astounding 2.89. Those are unheard of. Let's delve further into the stats. His total strikeouts in that 4 year run total 983, compared to just 198 walks. People, that is almost a 5 K/BB ratio. For a power pitcher, that is rediculous. We haven't seen numbers like those since Pedro Martinez's run with the Boston Red Sox. His years there, he was Cy Young. Johan Santana has won 2 of the last 4 Cy Young Awards. In the crunch, he is even better. In the last 4 season he has a Post-All Star record of 36-14. Coincidence: The Mariners fold in the 2nd half every team our name has a playoff lable on it!

Intangibles:
Safeco Field would be the perfect fit for Santana. Safeco Field favors the left handed pitcher, well, even pitchers in general. However, the left hander is dominant in Safeco. Johan, is a dominant left handed pitcher. Love? Next, and maybe less of Santana and more of his catcher, but in his 4 years as starter, Santana has allowed 20 stolen bases, and 22 men have been caught stealing. Yes, over 50% of base runners have been caught during his full time starting tenure. One less man on base is one less runner and one less potential run. Next, Santana is a workhorse. In those 4 years as the starter in Minnesota, Santana has logged 912.1 innings, or 228 innings per year. That averages out at about 7 innings per game, also. The sooner we can get the ball from Santana to Putz, the better chance we have at winning.

The Price:
It is reported that he is seeking 5 years and $126 million. Yeah, I won't lie, that is a lot of money. However, let us think about this. The numbers have already shown you what he can do. Here is the real question: How badly to the Mariners want to win and what is the price of winning? To me, the price of winning is $126 million. Yes, Johan Santana is worth every penny. He has been the most dominant pitcher in the last 4 years, and you can argue 5 (he began starting about half way through 2003, but didn't hold onto a full time spot until 2004.) Santana is a once in a decade, one in a career (front office career) type offer.

The price isn't limited to money. The Twins have outlined that they would like Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Jeff Clement. To some people, this may seem like too much to trade away. I however, say it is would be worth it. Let's look at this: None of them are nowhere as proven in the MLB as Santana.

Adam Jones has struggled in his two stints with the big club, and struggled mightily. He has been extremely unsuccessful at the plate, showing little discipline, and has struggled to use his power. In the field, I don't know what is going on. He's supposed to be great, but he's been making routine plays seem like highlight reel catches. He has been compared to the greatest Mariner ever, Ken Griffey Jr. That is setting him up for failure. Not to mention, Torri Hunter just left the Twins, so center is wide open for Adam Jones to take over.

Brandon Morrow has seen time, has been demoted, promoted, and anything in between. He has struggled with his control, and is about as streaky as they come. I don't know what they would do with Morrow, meaning, I don't know if they would keep him in the bullpen or convert him to the starting rotation, but either way, they gain an electric arm.

Jeff Clement has never really rubbed me right until his September callup. When McLaren went nuts with playing the Rainiers against the MLB I thought he was stupid. I saw Clement's numbers [in AAA] and thought he would die. He proved me wrong. I saw both of his home runs at Safeco, and he looked extremely impressive. With the possibility of Joe Mauer being moved to an every day spot to save his knees, Clement would fit in perfect in Minnesota.

Outside Sources:
Buster Olney (of ESPN) posted a blog (Insider: Free, recently made "unfree") saying that a Santana trade seems impossible. The impossible factor was the money. Nobody is sure whether or not the Twins will be able to resign Santana. If resigned then traded, that will save money. (IE - Carlos Zambrano, who could command more money than Santana.) If not resigned by Santana, that is where it gets insanely disgusting. He could run up the table more. His $126 million was his Twins counter-offer. On an open market, he's free game.

Larry Larue (of The Tacoma News Tribune) posted a article on the money aspect of free agency and trades. He referenced Santana and the money he commanded. He said, "The Mariners and a half-dozen other teams still have interest in trading for Santana, but each of them took a large gulp after hearing that figure. Now, to obtain Santana it will take a package of ready-for-prime-time talent – and $126 million." The Mariners fit every checkmark. First, we have been mentioned in the running. Second, we have ready-for-prime time talent. All three guys have seen time in the MLB. Finally, the money. Okay, don't get me wrong, it will cost us. But, is there a price on winning? We are owned by Nintendo, so, if we are ever short on money, we can take a loan from the only gaming system currently making money. Coincidence? I only hope.

Finale:
Now, here is what I really mean. I want Johan Santana. I want somebody to teach Felix how to pitch, and a Johan/Felix 1-2 punch would be a top-of-the-line rotation. I am in love with the guy on the mound. He is putting on one of the most dominant runs in baseball in the last 30 years. He has been lights out and consistent, about as good as it comes.

My Summary
I want Johan Santana.

Another Opinion; (An Opposition To Johan):
Fellow learned blogger, Jon:
http://theseattlemariners.blogspot.com/2007/11/cost-of-johan-santana.html

Sources:
Johan Santana stats:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4280
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4280

Tacoma News Tribune:
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/212490.html

Miscellaneous:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3121887

Parrish's Time with the M's has Perished

The Pershishable Food Item known as John Parrish will likely be forced out of his Mariner's uni just a few weeks after putting it on when he switched clubhouses in Baltimore in a bizzaro move made by Bill Bavasi. Immediately following the move, every M's fan I know questioned the move as I did, asking why would we need a fourth left-hander in the bullpen with an era of nearly 5 and a half? The answer to that question was supposebly that we would somehow benefit from his veteran presence. Uhhhh no. We didn't. And the only one who may have been insane enough to think that was Bill Bavasi. It's unclear whether Parrish will be DFA'ed or head to the minors, but atleast he won't be ruining anymore games for us. My thought is that he will be DFA'ed, and consensus seems to be that Rick White, who's 39 years old, will be called up from Tacoma in Part II 0f Bavasi's hell-bent attempt to bring in a grandfatherly figure to tell war stories to the youngsters in the bullpen.

A Reliever?

We are know about 28 hours from the July 31st trading deadline and the latest hot-stove talk is that the Mariners may have shifted their focus to acquiring a right-handed reliever for 8th inning duty that has been split by several different guys this season. It seems as if Al Reyes and Octavio Dotel are the two names that consistently come up.

Two Mariner scouts, including Norm Charlton, have been watching Reyes of the Devil Rays for the last few days. The consensus here is that they have some interest in catcher Jeff Clement. The Mets are thought to be the other primary pursuer of Reyes.

Up to 7 or 8 teams are thought to be in the running for Dotel, primarily the Indians, Mariners, and Dodgers. The Royals have apparently expressed interest in Balentien and Jones, with Balentien probably being the only in play.

But why is Bavasi now targeting a reliever and are we going to get what we need; a starter? It seems like we have exhausted any starting pitcher options that are seen as viable to the front office, atleast, for the players that are currently available. I would view it as a mistake to waste one of our best bargaining chips/future stars on a relief pitcher when we have guys capable of filling the 8th inning role as it is. We'll see what happens, but don't be surprised if we don't land a starting pitcher.

M's Active in Trade Talks

A few miscellaneous rumors have come out today regarding the Mariners and the trading deadline.

1) "The Mariners are in on every available starting pitcher, and several pitchers who aren't. Aiming super-high, they've bugged the Marlins about Dontrelle Willis, the White Sox about Jon Garland and even tried to see if the Yankees were putting Andy Pettitte on the market. They're liable to get somebody, but it isn't likely to be somebody anywhere near that good. The latest talk has them hot on the trail of Houston's Jason Jennings...." --Newark Star-Ledger

Jason Jennings has shown flashes of talent in his first three years in the majors, but he hasn't found a way to stay consistent. He spent his first two years in Colorado and is now pitching in Houston. In both years with Colorado, he failed to win ten games and had a losing record. This year he's 2-6 with a 4.74 era and in his last ten games, he has given up three or more earned runs in nine of them. If he comes to Seattle don't expect him to be too much better although Safeco is a pitchers park. This is another case where we would have to worry about a career NL pitcher coming to the AL.

2) "Kenji Johjima and Ichiro both expressed pleasant surprise in the clubhouse after overhearing a TV report about the Mariners' rumored trade interest in Yankees pitcher Kei Igawa, who is also Japanese." --Seattle Times

To me this is the most intriguing of the new class of rumors. Igawa came over from Japan in the offseason after the Yankees posted $26 million to negotiate with him and then signed Igawa to a five year, $20 million contract. Though he has been a bust so far for the Yankees and has just been demoted for the second time to the minor leagues, Igawa was a star in Japan. His career ERA in Japan is 3.15 and his season ERA's were all under 3.90 from 2000-2006 (four of those seasons under 3.00). Along with his outstanding stats, he is the 5th fastest pitcher in Japanese history to reach 1000 strikeouts. By 2007 standards, Igawa is dirt cheap. He is under contract through 2011 and is owed just $4 million a year. Consider the fact that Jeff Weaver is making more than double that this year on a one year deal. New York is not the best place for a first year pitcher from Japan who doesn't speak english. The Eddie Murphy movie Coming to America keeps popping into my head. On a side note, one of Kei Igawa's hobbies is model planes. What better place than Seattle, the home of Boeing? He shouldn't cost much, I say do it right away.

3) "The Mariners, meanwhile, have serious interest in reliever Al Reyes and, possibly, Edwin Jackson. A Mets scout also was at the Trop." --St. Petersburg Times

This isn't surprising I guess. Here are the stats on these two:

Al Reyes: 1-1, 4.75 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 40 K's, 13 BB, 17 Saves (career ERA is 3.71)
Edwin Jackson: 2-10, 7.00 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 77 K's, 51 BB (career ERA is 6.16)

Ummmm... How about a big fat NO on Jackson. Reyes would be fine, but there are bigger problems that we need to address first.

And The Pitcher Is...

Mariner Nation can now reveal the identity of, and the details surrounding the mystery pitcher that everyone has been anticipating for the last 3 days since we broke the story. Recently, former Mariners pitcher Norm Charlton, the Sherriff as he is affectionately called, has been scouting left-handed starter Erik Bedard of the Baltimore Orioles. Tonight, Norm is thought to be in Oakland, where Bedard will pitch against the A’s on extended rest after being scratched from his start against us just two days ago. We do not know if any offers have been made for Bedard thus far, or if he is even available. We learned from Geoff Baker, Mariners beat-writer for the Seattle Times, that Bavasi apparently offered Richie Sexson for Bedard at some point last season. Geoff also told us that Bedard is not available to the best of his knowledge, but right-hander Daniel Cabrera may be. It is certainly very exciting to hear that we are scouting such a great pitcher, and by sending Norm Charlton on a special scouting assignment, it shows that management is serious about making a move before the deadline. Though Bedard is thought to be un-available, most anything can happen in the hectic days leading up to the deadline. Erik Bedard is under contract through the 2008 season, and it doesn’t look like the Orioles will be contending any time soon, and Bedard may want to play for a winning team. Another aspect that could work in our favor is that Bedard will command a significant amount of money assuming he keeps performing at his current level. Orioles’ owner Peter Angelos is not one to dish out large contracts too often, thus contributing to the Orioles recent success, of lack thereof. I can tell you from living a half an hour from Baltimore, the people who cover the Orioles have been skeptical about the chances of re-signing him. The question that we are left to ponder is what would it take to bring Bedard to Seattle? Quite frankly, we don’t know and any guesses would be shots in the dark. We will keep you updated on any further developments. And remember, you heard it here first!

Post your thoughts!

Additonal Information on the "Mystery Pitcher"

Finally a report has been published by Larry Stone involving that "mystery pitcher" that we here at Mariner Nation brought to your attention 3 days ago. Stone's article said the following.

"On Thursday, for instance, one of Bavasi's top lieutenants, Dan Evans, was at Fenway Park watching the Chicago White Sox, who have plenty of pitching to deal. He even dispatched former M's closer Norm Charlton on a scouting assignment this week."

Remember how I mentioned that the second link in the communication chain for this information was "an old friend of the Mariners"? Norm Charlton is indeed the person I was speaking of. He has been scouting and will continue to scout the mystery pitcher right up to the July 31st deadline. I'm hoping that we'll get the all clear to release that name very soon. Stay posted!

M's Scouting White Sox Pitchers

An online Chicago sports website reported that the Mariners have been scouting the White Sox pitchers. The M's portion of the article can be seen below.

"Among the representatives in attendance at Fenway Park was Seattle special assistant Dan Evans. The Mariners are looking for pitching and Sox starter Javier Vazquez (7-5) won his fourth consecutive decision by pitching 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball. Vazquez, however, has a no-trade clause to the nine teams in the NL West and AL West and would prefer to stay with the Sox." -- http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-070719soxgamer,1,7409340.story?coll=cs-whitesox-headlines

My guess is that Evans has been watching a few White Sox games up close, as the disgruntled Chi-Sox have been the center of trade chatter to this point. After the hurly-Buehrle was over, and the left-handed ace signed a contract extension, the focus shifted to starters Javier Vazquez, Jose Contreras, and Jon Garland. My thought is that one of these three will be dealt, probably Contreras or Vazquez. If the Mariners management is indeed trying to add a front line starter like we have heard they are (Contreras and Vazquez are second line to me), its comforting to know that there atleast is a backup plan that we can fall back on.

M's Eyeing Pettite?

The New Jersey based newspaper The Star-Ledger has published an article with the following information...

"The Mariners are looking for starting pitchers, and were hoping Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte might be available. But the Yankees aren't giving up on their season, and have no plans to deal Pettitte."

Where this rumor came from or how it got into the hands of one Dan Graziano in New Jersey is a mystery to me. It hasn't been reported anywhere else to the best of my knowledge. Don't put too much stock into this rumor.

http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-2/1184819425160200.xml&coll=1

Good News from an Inside Source

A source from inside the organization has mentioned that the Mariners are pursuing a certain starting pitcher who I can not name. This is what I can tell you:

-He posts All-Star quality numbers

-He would probably be a number 2 starter behind Felix

-He's fairly young

-Mariners management is really trying hard to make this team a serious contender before the deadline

I wish I could talk more about this, but I assure you this is coming from a reliable source that no one else has access to.

The Other Missing Piece

We all know the M’s are looking for another starting pitcher. I believe they should not limit their search to just starting pitching.

I believe a good bullpen has 5 essential parts/roles.

1. A dominant closer- Putz has this under control.

2 & 3. Middle Relievers- They need to be able to work the 6th and 7th innings. It is ideal if there is one lefty and one righty. S. Green and E. O’Flaherty have this role nailed. I don’t know if there is a better pair in the league at this role.

4. A lefty specialist-They need to be able to pitch the 8th inning or just get the tough lefties out. George Sherrill is the best in the league at this.

5. A right-handed set up man- They need to pitch the 8th inning most of the time. They need to get the leagues best righties out. This is where the Mariners lack. They planned on Reitsma filling this role however he has been inconsistent and injury prone. At the beginning of the year Morrow excelled in this role however he has struggled over the last month with an era over 7.00.

The three other teams that will most likely make the playoffs are the Red Sox, Angels and Tigers. Each team has a dominant right-handed hitter in Ramirez, Vlad, and Sheffield. I would not trust Morrow or Reitsma to get any of them out in a tense playoff situation.

The good news is that there are many good right-handed relievers on the market. Names that are believed to be available are Lidge (Astros), Cordero (Nationals), Gagne (Rangers), Dotel (Royals) and Reyes (Tampa Bay). I have not heard the Mariners names linked to any of these players yet, but I would not be surprised if one of these five is a Mariner by the deadline.

Whatcha Talkin' Bout? Willis?

Initial buzz has surfaced in the world of baseball rumors about the Marlins left hander Dontrelle Willis possibly being traded to the Seattle Mariners before the trading deadline. The New York Post reported on the impending scenario:

"The Mets also are looking for pitching. Sources say Dontrelle Willis will be traded by the Marlins, but the Marlins will not trade Willis to their chief competition in the NL East. Look for Willis to be dealt to a team from the West."

A team from the west who needs a pitcher to make a playoff run? Hmmmmmm I wonder if...? OF COURSE, THE MARINERS. It is likely that the Marlins would be able to draw 2 good to great prospects for Willis as their annual firesale heats up. When it comes to good prospects, the Mariners have no shortage of ripe young guys in the system that consistently draw intrigue from many ballclubs. Immediately, Adam Jones, Wladamir Balentien, and Jeff Clement jump to mind as possible tradees, but with Adam Jones about to come up to the big league and the organization's long history of coveting him, he doesn't seem as viable as the other two if a trade agreement was reached. So what are Marlins fans thinking? The following is an excerpt from the MVN Blog affiliate for the Marlins:

"According to FOX Sports, the Mariners want Willis more than they wanted Mark Buehrle. The Marlins could essentially name their price......The Marlins could pick up both Jones and Clement for Willis and a reliever."

Though I don't think bringing in Jones is as easy as that entry makes it sound, everything may be on the table since the M's DESPERATELY need a starter.

The Full Article from Marlins Today MVN can be found @ http://mvn.com/mlb-marlins/2007/07/09/willis-needs-to-be-traded-sooner-not-later/