State of the Mariners: At the Deadline 2007

With the trade deadline having passed the other day, questions about who was coming and going to Seattle have been answered; Nobody. Unless you include Mr. Domestic Violence himself being traded to Philadelphia for a mid-level 26 year old dare I call him prospect. The fact of the matter is that Bill Bavasi did not bring in the player(s) that I feel is/are needed to contend for the World Series let alone the playoffs. Now if someone asks me about playoffs, I'm likely to go Jim Mora Sr. on them. "Playoffs? Are you talking about Playoffs?" Lets take a look at some of the teams that we are going to be competing with for the playoffs and their AL ranks in certain categories.

Average
SEA: 4th
NYY: 2nd
DET: 1st
LAA: 3rd
CLE: 7th

Thats kind of un-settling to know that three of the teams that we're competing with are hitting for a higher average than we are. In the last seven days, we are 11th with all the aforementioned teams ahead of us.

Runs
SEA: 7th
NYY: 2nd
DET: 1st
LAA: 5th
CLE: 3rd

Well if you can't out-pitch them, you've got to out-score them. We haven't been able to do that as each of the 4 teams that we're competing with are in the top five in the AL.

Slugging Percentage
SEA: 9th
NYY: 2nd
DET: 1st
LAA: 8th
CLE: 4th

We are last once again. We are even behind the Angels who pride themselves in small-ball rather than power. That is a huge problem.

On-Base Percentage
SEA: 8th
NYY: 1st
DET: 3rd
LAA: 5th
CLE: 4th

Way behind the rest of the pack here, the Devil Rays and the Orioles have a better team OBP than we do.

Walks
SEA: 14th
NYY: 3rd
DET: 11th
LAA: 12th
CLE: 4th

I show this right after OBP because if we were more patient as a ballclub and drew more walks, our on-base percentage would atleast be a few ranks higher. To put this into perspective, we have 271 walks, the 12th ranked Angels have 313, and the 3rd ranked Yankees have 412.

ERA
SEA: 11th
NYY: 7th
DET: 10th
LAA: 3rd
CLE: 8th

Its a little surprisng to see that 4 of these 5 teams are ranked 7th or higher. Though we shouldn't be surprised to find ourselves last in that group with the inconsistency of our starters this season. If you take the bullpen out of that, I would be willing to bet that we are in 13th, slightly ahead of the Devil Rays. This should underscore the mistake that Bavasi made by not acquiring a starting pitcher.

Average Against
SEA: 10th
NYY: 7th
DET: 8th
LAA: 5th
CLE: 9th

Bottom of the pack once again, this can be attributed to the seemingly every-other performances of Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez. You know, the ones where they either can't catch a break or just flat out get hammered. When your pitchers are throwing 25, 30, 35 pitches in an inning, for multiple innings in a game, thats a problem.

Base Runners Against per 9 Innings
SEA: 4th
NYY: 7th
DET: 3rd
LAA: 10th
CLE: 9th

If you think that 4th is good, its not. This is one of those categories where you want to be in double digit ranks if you can be. So really, we are second to last in that group surrendering 13.4 base runners per nine innings. Walks are definitely a major contributor here.

Innings per Start
SEA: 10th
NYY: 12th
DET: 8th
LAA: 4th
CLE: 2nd

This is a big category in the scheme of things because it demonstrates perfectly how bad our starters can be and also the need for either a new starting pitcher or a solid 8th inning reliever to shorten the game providing a starter could not be had at the deadline. Our starters, on average, go 5.8 innings per start but I'm sure if you analyzed Weaver and Ramirez, they would be one of the worst 1-2 punch in the back of the bullpen in the majors.

If we even want a chance at making the playoffs, we need to improve in some of these categories. If you want to battle the big-boys in the playoffs, you've got to match them or atleast come close to them statistically in the regular season. This season, we haven't done that in many categories.

My Prognosis: Not Good. We are going to have to limit losing streaks to no more than 2 games and find a way to win games started by Weaver and Ramirez.

State of the Mariners: At the Break 2007

The first half of the 2007 season has been spectacular for the Mariners to say the least. Pre-season expectations set by fans after an offseason of inactivity have been shattered, and the Mariners are sitting pretty at 2.5 games behind the Angels in the divsion and 1.5 behind Cleveland in the AL wildcard race. With a record of 49-36 (13 games over .500), we are on pace to win 93 games which we haven't done since 2003 when we went 93-69, finished 3 games behind Oakland, and just 2 games behind Boston for the wildcard. The question that Seattle fans are sub-conciously asking themselves is, "How in the hell did this happen?" It really is a good question considering there was not much hope among the Mariners fanbase after we failed to sign a stud starter in the offseason, which was thought to be a desperate need.

Keys to Success:

Bullpen: The Mariner's young bullpen has been absolutely stellar this year. George Sherrill has been a very pleasant surprise after a ho-hum 2006 season where he had a 5.21 era in just 19 innings. This season, he has been among the best in the league and currently has an era of 1.33. Opponents are hitting just .146 against him, and left handed batters have hit a miniscule .098. He has been fantastic and certainly has the numbers to be a closer; the reason he's not a closer? J.J. Putz. Putz has continued his success as a closer from last year and is heading to the All Star game as arguably the best closer in baseball. His filthy splitter continues to baffle hitters and has been fundamental in striking out 43 batters in 40 innings and maintaining an era under 1.00 (currently 0.90). The cast surrounding these two studs has also been above average. Though he walks a batter for every one he strikes out, Brandon Morrow goes into the break with a very respectable 3.66 era, which is astounding considering his control problems that often plague young pitchers. Sean Green and Eric O'Flaherty have been even better posting era's of 2.67 and 2.17 respectively. If the young guns in the bullpen can continue to dominate, they can default the struggling and inconsistent rotation.

Depth of Lineup: The Mariners lineup is often underrated because people pass judgement too soon. Just because there isn't a stud power hitter in the middle of the lineup doesn't mean we can't hold our own. A closer look at our lineup from 1 through 9 reveals that we actually have talent from beginning to end. If we can get better at hitting with runners in scoring position, opposing pitchers will be in for some really bad innings.

Washburn: There is no doubt about it, Jarrod Washburn has been the most consistent starter for the Mariners this season. Pitching 106 innings thus far, he leads the team in innings pitched and has a respectable 3.72 era, tied with King Felix. This season may be one of Washburn's best of his career as he has already matched his win total in each of the last two years. Chances are he wont match his career best 18 win season with the Angels in 2002, their World Championship year, but if he keeps his era below 4.00, Mariner fans should be pleased.

Disappointments:

Power Outage: Oh where, oh where has the power gone? The Mariners rank 10th in homeruns with only 77 as opposed to 91 at the break last year. A closer look at our power guys reveals why we are struggling as a team with the longball. Comparisons of their career HR's per at bat with their 2007 homeruns per at bat show a downward trend.

Sexson: +2.9 at bats per homerun in 07

Ibanez: +20.8 at bats per homerun in 07

Guillen: +1.8 at bats per homerun in 07

Beltre: -2.8 at bats per homerun in 07

Combined: +3.6 at bats per homerun in 07

Rotation: Our rotation as a whole has been flat out B-A-D. So far this season, our 7 starters have a whopping 5.03 era. In fact, our bullpen is so much better than our rotation that it lowers our team era by a mindblowing 0.54; an extremely impressive statistic since our bullpen accounts for only 35% of innings pitched. The fact that we weren't able to add a front line starter in the offseason is definitely rearing its ugly head right now. If we are able to add a solid guy before the trading deadline, which I personally doubt, then I believe we have a fair shot at making the playoffs and possibly winning a series.