State of the Mariners: At the Deadline 2007

With the trade deadline having passed the other day, questions about who was coming and going to Seattle have been answered; Nobody. Unless you include Mr. Domestic Violence himself being traded to Philadelphia for a mid-level 26 year old dare I call him prospect. The fact of the matter is that Bill Bavasi did not bring in the player(s) that I feel is/are needed to contend for the World Series let alone the playoffs. Now if someone asks me about playoffs, I'm likely to go Jim Mora Sr. on them. "Playoffs? Are you talking about Playoffs?" Lets take a look at some of the teams that we are going to be competing with for the playoffs and their AL ranks in certain categories.

Average
SEA: 4th
NYY: 2nd
DET: 1st
LAA: 3rd
CLE: 7th

Thats kind of un-settling to know that three of the teams that we're competing with are hitting for a higher average than we are. In the last seven days, we are 11th with all the aforementioned teams ahead of us.

Runs
SEA: 7th
NYY: 2nd
DET: 1st
LAA: 5th
CLE: 3rd

Well if you can't out-pitch them, you've got to out-score them. We haven't been able to do that as each of the 4 teams that we're competing with are in the top five in the AL.

Slugging Percentage
SEA: 9th
NYY: 2nd
DET: 1st
LAA: 8th
CLE: 4th

We are last once again. We are even behind the Angels who pride themselves in small-ball rather than power. That is a huge problem.

On-Base Percentage
SEA: 8th
NYY: 1st
DET: 3rd
LAA: 5th
CLE: 4th

Way behind the rest of the pack here, the Devil Rays and the Orioles have a better team OBP than we do.

Walks
SEA: 14th
NYY: 3rd
DET: 11th
LAA: 12th
CLE: 4th

I show this right after OBP because if we were more patient as a ballclub and drew more walks, our on-base percentage would atleast be a few ranks higher. To put this into perspective, we have 271 walks, the 12th ranked Angels have 313, and the 3rd ranked Yankees have 412.

ERA
SEA: 11th
NYY: 7th
DET: 10th
LAA: 3rd
CLE: 8th

Its a little surprisng to see that 4 of these 5 teams are ranked 7th or higher. Though we shouldn't be surprised to find ourselves last in that group with the inconsistency of our starters this season. If you take the bullpen out of that, I would be willing to bet that we are in 13th, slightly ahead of the Devil Rays. This should underscore the mistake that Bavasi made by not acquiring a starting pitcher.

Average Against
SEA: 10th
NYY: 7th
DET: 8th
LAA: 5th
CLE: 9th

Bottom of the pack once again, this can be attributed to the seemingly every-other performances of Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez. You know, the ones where they either can't catch a break or just flat out get hammered. When your pitchers are throwing 25, 30, 35 pitches in an inning, for multiple innings in a game, thats a problem.

Base Runners Against per 9 Innings
SEA: 4th
NYY: 7th
DET: 3rd
LAA: 10th
CLE: 9th

If you think that 4th is good, its not. This is one of those categories where you want to be in double digit ranks if you can be. So really, we are second to last in that group surrendering 13.4 base runners per nine innings. Walks are definitely a major contributor here.

Innings per Start
SEA: 10th
NYY: 12th
DET: 8th
LAA: 4th
CLE: 2nd

This is a big category in the scheme of things because it demonstrates perfectly how bad our starters can be and also the need for either a new starting pitcher or a solid 8th inning reliever to shorten the game providing a starter could not be had at the deadline. Our starters, on average, go 5.8 innings per start but I'm sure if you analyzed Weaver and Ramirez, they would be one of the worst 1-2 punch in the back of the bullpen in the majors.

If we even want a chance at making the playoffs, we need to improve in some of these categories. If you want to battle the big-boys in the playoffs, you've got to match them or atleast come close to them statistically in the regular season. This season, we haven't done that in many categories.

My Prognosis: Not Good. We are going to have to limit losing streaks to no more than 2 games and find a way to win games started by Weaver and Ramirez.

Trade Deadline Passed

About two hours after the deadline, last minute trades have seemingly stopped coming in. The Mariners were extremely quiet after so much talk about possible outcomes. Early in the day, there was word that we were working to acquire utility infielder Mark Loretta from the Astros however that deal never really seemed to get close to completion. The mission of acquiring Reyes or Dotel also was unsuccessful, with Reyes staying put in Tampa Bay and Dotel going to the Braves. It was reported that Bavasi offered Balentien to the Royals for Dotel, but it wasn't enough to get him... Thankfully. Though quiet for the most part, Bavasi did hook up with former Mariner GM and current GM for the Philadelphia Phillies to send Julio Mateo to the Phils in return for AA/AAA infielder prospect Jesus Merchan. In 84 games (81 with AA and 3 with AAA), Merchan was hitting .330.

I will post a State of the Mariners: At the Deadline in the coming days once the deadline ramifications work themselves out.

Dotel to Braves

Mariner fans can breathe a little easier now knowing that the Braves have acquired Octavio Dotel from the Royals. Now Mariner Nation will have to hold there breath again and hope that Reyes either stays in Tampa Bay or goes to the Mets.

Reitsma on DL

Ryan Rowland Smith was recalled from AAA to take the spot of Chris Reitsma who will have elbow surgery this week. Dave Niehaus said during tonights game that Reitsma could be done for the year. Hallelujah!

A Reliever?

We are know about 28 hours from the July 31st trading deadline and the latest hot-stove talk is that the Mariners may have shifted their focus to acquiring a right-handed reliever for 8th inning duty that has been split by several different guys this season. It seems as if Al Reyes and Octavio Dotel are the two names that consistently come up.

Two Mariner scouts, including Norm Charlton, have been watching Reyes of the Devil Rays for the last few days. The consensus here is that they have some interest in catcher Jeff Clement. The Mets are thought to be the other primary pursuer of Reyes.

Up to 7 or 8 teams are thought to be in the running for Dotel, primarily the Indians, Mariners, and Dodgers. The Royals have apparently expressed interest in Balentien and Jones, with Balentien probably being the only in play.

But why is Bavasi now targeting a reliever and are we going to get what we need; a starter? It seems like we have exhausted any starting pitcher options that are seen as viable to the front office, atleast, for the players that are currently available. I would view it as a mistake to waste one of our best bargaining chips/future stars on a relief pitcher when we have guys capable of filling the 8th inning role as it is. We'll see what happens, but don't be surprised if we don't land a starting pitcher.

Our Trade Targets

With the deadline approaching the M's options for a starting pitcher are getting slim.

We are looking at 10 or more starting pitchers based on rumors from multiple web sites. However many of them are struggling. Here are their most recent lines.

Contreras- 4.2 inn. 9 runs
Jennings- .2 inn. 11 runs
Morris- 7 inn. 6 runs
L Hernandez- 4 inn. 8 runs
Igawa- 5 2/3 inn. 5 runs

Bedard, Garland and Willis are pitching well however they are thought to be unavailable or overpriced. Vazquez could be had, but he has stated that he is unwilling to play on the west coast. This leaves the Mariners with very few options.

Ichiro's Interesting Fan Confrontation

"CF Ichiro Suzuki had an interesting eighth inning on Saturday. During a pitching change, a fan came out of the stands and started talking to Suzuki and LF Raul Ibanez. It took security a minute to realize the man, who was wearing a jersey, was not a player. As security approached, the fan gave Suzuki a hug before laying down on the grass and being handcuffed. ``First I asked him, 'Have you been drinking?' He said 'No.' ... But all drunk people say, 'I'm not drinking,''' Suzuki said. After checking to see that the fan didn't have any weapons, Suzuki played along, ``lightly'' hugging the fan back. ``I started thinking what would be the most fun thing for me to do for the fans.'' ... Suzuki went hitless on Saturday and remained one hit shy of reaching 1,500." --ESPN.com

Awwwwww Ichiro did what would be most fun for the fans. He loves us, HE REALLY LOVES US!!!

M's Active in Trade Talks

A few miscellaneous rumors have come out today regarding the Mariners and the trading deadline.

1) "The Mariners are in on every available starting pitcher, and several pitchers who aren't. Aiming super-high, they've bugged the Marlins about Dontrelle Willis, the White Sox about Jon Garland and even tried to see if the Yankees were putting Andy Pettitte on the market. They're liable to get somebody, but it isn't likely to be somebody anywhere near that good. The latest talk has them hot on the trail of Houston's Jason Jennings...." --Newark Star-Ledger

Jason Jennings has shown flashes of talent in his first three years in the majors, but he hasn't found a way to stay consistent. He spent his first two years in Colorado and is now pitching in Houston. In both years with Colorado, he failed to win ten games and had a losing record. This year he's 2-6 with a 4.74 era and in his last ten games, he has given up three or more earned runs in nine of them. If he comes to Seattle don't expect him to be too much better although Safeco is a pitchers park. This is another case where we would have to worry about a career NL pitcher coming to the AL.

2) "Kenji Johjima and Ichiro both expressed pleasant surprise in the clubhouse after overhearing a TV report about the Mariners' rumored trade interest in Yankees pitcher Kei Igawa, who is also Japanese." --Seattle Times

To me this is the most intriguing of the new class of rumors. Igawa came over from Japan in the offseason after the Yankees posted $26 million to negotiate with him and then signed Igawa to a five year, $20 million contract. Though he has been a bust so far for the Yankees and has just been demoted for the second time to the minor leagues, Igawa was a star in Japan. His career ERA in Japan is 3.15 and his season ERA's were all under 3.90 from 2000-2006 (four of those seasons under 3.00). Along with his outstanding stats, he is the 5th fastest pitcher in Japanese history to reach 1000 strikeouts. By 2007 standards, Igawa is dirt cheap. He is under contract through 2011 and is owed just $4 million a year. Consider the fact that Jeff Weaver is making more than double that this year on a one year deal. New York is not the best place for a first year pitcher from Japan who doesn't speak english. The Eddie Murphy movie Coming to America keeps popping into my head. On a side note, one of Kei Igawa's hobbies is model planes. What better place than Seattle, the home of Boeing? He shouldn't cost much, I say do it right away.

3) "The Mariners, meanwhile, have serious interest in reliever Al Reyes and, possibly, Edwin Jackson. A Mets scout also was at the Trop." --St. Petersburg Times

This isn't surprising I guess. Here are the stats on these two:

Al Reyes: 1-1, 4.75 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 40 K's, 13 BB, 17 Saves (career ERA is 3.71)
Edwin Jackson: 2-10, 7.00 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 77 K's, 51 BB (career ERA is 6.16)

Ummmm... How about a big fat NO on Jackson. Reyes would be fine, but there are bigger problems that we need to address first.

7/27: Oakland A's at Seattle Mariners

Dallas Braden (1-5, 5.15 ERA) vs. Felix Hernandez (6-6, 4.02 ERA)

Happy Felix Day? We'll see. Well, I won't, since I'm going to see the Simpsons movie tonight (which is why I'm putting this up so early), but we can hope for Good Felix, right?

Check Mate

As we near the July 31st trade deadline, Bill Bavasi is stuck between a rock an a hard place. Realistically, he has two options on what to do before the deadline; let it pass without making a move or make a move probably for a starting pitcher. As the next few days unfold, you will see that whatever he chooses to do, the calls for his job from Mariner fans will get louder.

If he chooses to not make a move: If Bavasi holds all of his cards, Mariner fans will talk about how much we needed to make a move at the deadline for the rest of the season, especially if we miss the playoffs by a small margin. We will hear the same things we've heard before in the offseason about how all the talk and hope to bring in difference-maker was all for nothing, and how Bavasi needed to be more aggressive in pursuing players. You may hear this type of thing from Geoff Baker, the M's beat writer. He is in favor of making a move to bring in a starting pitcher, even if it meant trading Adam Jones. Though not many M's fans will go that far, the majority think that something needs to be done and that it's Bavasi's fault if nothing happens. There are valid points there, but theres also another side the argument.

If he chooses to make a move: We all know that if we want a solid starting pitcher in Seattle before the deadline, we are going to have to trade some livestock. We're going to have to reach down into our farm system and ship a few guys elsewhere. Most people wouldn't have a problem with that if there were a few quality arms in the market. But there aren't. I've seen a lot of fans, including Dave from USS Mariner, lobby for nothing to be done if it involved trading guys like Jones, Balentien, and Clement. The reality is that if we trade for a starting pitcher, one or more of those guys will have to go. At this point, teams are very reluctant to give up proven arms unless they get some pieces to the future in return.

So either way you cut it, Bavasi is not in a good spot. He has backed himself into a corner by not making improvements to this team in the offseason, and will hear the criticisms no matter what he does. Nevertheless, it's going to be interesting to see which way he leans in the next couple days and what will come out of it. Personally, I side with those who think something needs to be done, even if we have to give up prospects. Anyway, good luck Bill Bavasi because it's gonna be a long rest of the season.

7/26: Oakland A's at Seattle Mariners

Dan Haren (11-3, 2.41 ERA) vs. Jeff Weaver (2-8, 6.19)

One is a good pitcher. The other is not. So instead of digging down to the nitty-gritty on this matchup, I'll leave you with this:



Live blogging -


*Top 1st:
-Why is Ibanez still hitting third? Since that magical two-homer night on June 11th, he's hitting just .192/.239/.320 with two home runs in 125 at bats.
-3 pitch strikeout to Travis Buck. Nice start.
-So far, everything Weaver has thrown has been up in the strikezone.
-He looks like the Weaver of old today. Just missing off the corners, then throwing a meatball down the middle that gets hammered for a hit.
-Nice double play ends Weaver's suffering.

*Bottom 1st:
-Wow, Beltre absolutely CRUSHED that double.
-Pretty typical of the Mariners lately: Get a couple of guys on, then not do anything to get them home.

*Top 2nd:
-Ellis takes Weaver deep.
-Ground-rule double follows. Yikes, the A's have a terrible offense, and they're giving Weaver a royal smacking here.
-This is getting ugly. 1 2/3 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 1 BB, 1 K.

*Bottom 2nd:
-Sexson homers, and my internet decides to crap out. I'll see if I can keep posting, but I'm not holding my breath.

Thursday Quote: Detour

This week’s quote comes from the late American businesswoman and founder of Mary Kay cosmetics; Mary Kay Ash. She once said:

“For every failure, there's an alternative course of action. You just have to find it. When you come to a roadblock, take a detour.”

Currently, the Mariners are knee-deep in a six game losing streak and have just been swept by the division dwelling Texas Rangers in a four game series. I think part of the blame for this losing streak, besides the hitting, falls on John McLaren. Since the All-Star break, the Mariners are 5 and 9 and McLaren has taken some heat for throwing out the same old lineup every night despite who was on the mound. I believe that the criticisms have been just since it is those little things, the intangibles, which can kick any ballclub up a notch or two. Sure there have been little lineup tweaks, like moving Vidro to the five spot which I personally don’t understand. Why Johjima still hits seventh is a mystery to me. I believe that if this team is to succeed, McLaren needs to find an alternative course of action sooner rather than later.

Another thing that has to be mentioned in accordance with this quote is the front office. There is no doubt that our front office is under more pressure now than ever before to make a move before the July 31st deadline. Management has to come to terms with reality; that this team, as it stands right now, is not going to make the playoffs. Say what you will or argue that it isn’t true, but it is. This losing streak has proved that we desperately need either one more solid pitcher or one more solid hitter to give us a shot at making the playoffs. One thing that we seriously lack right now is positive momentum, and that’s because winning or losing streaks and momentum go hand in hand. Looking back at the last six games, five of those losses have been by one run. That means that if we had another good hitter that was able to drive in one or two more runs, we would have probably won a few of those games. The same thing could be said if we had one more solid pitcher. Instead of stopping the negative momentum of a losing streak, we continue to lose and drop deeper and deeper into the abyss. One win can totally reverse the trend. Bavasi has got to make a move. He needs to find the one piece that can reverse the trend, the one piece that can win us the close games, the one piece to get passed the roadblock of a mid-season crisis.

Upcoming Series: Mariners vs. Oakland (July 26-29)

The numbers: 6. 3-7. 21. 30. 5. 4.

6 game losing streak.
3 wins in our last 10 games (if you're a math major, thats 7 losses).
21 runs scored.
30 runs allowed.
5 losses in our 6 game losing streak are by 1 run.
4 in a row.

Do I need to say more?

Upcoming Series:

We move onto the Oakland A's at Safeco Field. The best we're going to see from them is Dan Haren, which is about as good as it gets, and we'll see him Thursday (11-3, 2.41 ERA). Chad Gaudin is the 2nd best we're going to see, and that's Saturday. We haven't really scored much lately, and when we do we end up losing it late. We need to put them away fast! We also need to get to the bullpen, seeing as how they aren't the star studded bullpen they have had in the past few years. The A's are 23-26 on the road, and we're 31-18 at home! Numbers say that we'll play well, and hopefully they favor us (can't we please just get a break?).

The Pitching:

They are good. 2nd best team ERA in the AL with a 3.78 team ERA. The team really hasn't had much success in the 9th inning this year, having only 22 saves in 37 opportunities. Their current closer, Huston Street, didn't pitch in June and only pitched once in July! Rusty? I believe so. They don't give up many hits, don't give up extra base hits, and have allowed the fewest long balls in the AL. They are middle of the pack in walks allowed, and have struck out the 2nd least ammount of batters. Fits right into our plan! They have 4 starters with a ERA under 4 also, so they are effective before the bullpen, which is good for them. Just like I said about the Blue Jays, if we get to the bullpen, we can be winning those games. The Toronto games speak for themselves.

The Hitting:

Last in the AL in runs scored. 2nd least ammount of hits. 2nd lowest batting average. I think that even Jeff Weaver (pre- All Star game) could beat them. Middle of the pack in strike outs means they will K. 2nd most walks drawn means they take pitches and work counts. They won't be a threat on the base paths, stealing only 40 bases thus far, which is 2nd least. They have grounded into the most double plays, so we should keep the ball on the dirt. Bottom half of the league in extra base hits; pitching should thrive.

The Individuals:

They don't really have any hot hitters. Travis Buck is the only batter that has worked lately for them. Shannon Stewart is 2nd best for them lately, having 7 hits in his last 20 atbats.
Dan Haren - His last loss was July 6th, to the Mariners. Chad Gaudin has 4 losses in his last 6 decisions.

Keys to the Series:

We need to score runs. The A's do not put up ample runs to put a team to sleep early. We need to get past the starters because their pitching has been outstanding, at least, the starters. The weak bullpen needs to be touched up to make sure they don't get a condifence boost.
On the Mariners side, J.J. Putz needs to clear his mind of his last outing against the Rangers.
Let's hope for the Mariners sake that we can put up runs and keep the rare leads we've been so reluctant to enjoy.

7/25: Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

Miguel Batista (10-7, 4.32 ERA) vs. Brandon McCarthy (4-7, 5.53)

After the abortion that was yesterday's double header, the Mariners look to Miguel Batista to stop the bleeding. He's been a solid pitcher lately after a very rocky start, and looks to try to break the Mariners' current 5-game losing streak. The slumping offense has a decent chance to save some face against the Rangers' terrible starting pitching by laying into young Brandon McCarthy.

However, McCarthy is the type of pitcher that can give the Seattle offense fits. He struggles with command (4.40 BB/9, 1.23 K/BB) which could be problematic, as the Mariners' are dead last in the American League at drawing walks. McCarthy misses out of the zone a lot, and the Mariners, being the free-swingers that they are, tend to bail out pitchers who have poor control by swinging at bad pitches.

Miguel Batista could struggle tonight as well. As I talked about in yesterday's game preview, Ameriquest isn't kind to flyball pitchers. Bastista, historically a groundball pitcher, seems to be taking advantage of Safeco Field's spacious outfield and heavy air by allowing more balls to be hit in the air (yes, this is a controllable skill for pitchers). His career GB% is 50.5% (1.68 GB/FB), but this year that has dipped to 44.4% (1.13 GB/FB).

My Trip to the Jake

As some of you know, I’ve was in Canfield, Ohio for my sister’s softball tournament and since we ended early yesterday, my Dad and I made the hour and change drive to Cleveland for the 7:05 Indians game vs. the Red Sox. I had my Mariner’s hat on and I was one of many who helped the Red Sox win 1-0 in a great pitching duel; Matsuzaka vs. Sabbathia. Rather than talk about the ballgame itself, I’m going to talk about the ambience and environment of Jacobs field.

Right off the bat, things started off well when we found a parking lot just 2 blocks from the Jake on a nearly sold-out night. We hurried to the box office to get tickets and were surprised when the guy told us that the best seats available was section 561 row X. We knew it sounded bad, but bought the $18 tickets anyway. Turns out X was the last row of the upper deck that had a better view of the outskirts of Cleveland than the actual game. Red Sox nation was out in full force, but Indian fans successfully quelled the Sox fans. I was surprised at how excited, enthusiastic, and flat out loud Tribe fans were. I knew this when the entire stadium was standing and making noise in the fourth inning. After boring seventh inning stretch with the same old Take Me Out to the Ballgame, we went down to stand on the left field homerun porch which actually wrapped around onto the third base line and had a fantastic view if you had the patience to wait for a spot on the railing. After I got my must-have, all-beef hotdog (which was really not that good), we found a spot and watched the last couple innings. Another thing that surprised me was how loud the sound system was. When they played Hell’s Bells in the bottom of the ninth, that place was rockin’! All 39,300 fans that showed up were there until the end, and that place was loud. As I said, the Sox ended up winning 1-0, and I was happy!

Besides things I’ve already mentioned, I made some other miscellaneous observations. The first thing I noticed was how tall and steep those bleachers were compared to Camden Yards. It reminded me of a football stadium rather than a baseball stadium. Even though we were in the last row, we actually weren’t far away from the field, just far up. Secondly, since it is a newer ballpark, everything is digitized. All the scoreboards and other little features were all digital whereas Camden Yards has the more old-school look with yellow bulbs on a black background. I tend to like the Camden look better. Lastly, the view past center field was gorgeous. This park was modeled after Camden Yards and features a similar view past centerfield of the surrounding buildings.

Overall, the Jake was a beautiful ballpark and I would encourage you to catch a game there if you’re in the area. I’d have to say that between the two parks I’ve been to, Camden Yards and the Jake, I prefer Camden Yards because of the more old-school look and the great Oriole traditions. Tradition was one thing that was lacking at Jacobs Field.

Upcoming Series: Mariners @ Texas (July 23-25)

Sorry about not being able to get to this, but I've been really busy with work and not home at night.

I really don't think that there is much to say. We're not scoring, we're not hitting (much), and our pitching doesn't seem to be able to hold a rare lead that we may have experienced.

7/24: Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, Game 1

Ryan Feierabend (1-3, 9.31 ERA) vs. John Rheinecker (0-0, 12.00 ERA)

This game has the words "possible nightmare" written all over it. Rheinecker owned the Mariners last year to the tune of a 1.69 ERA over 10.2 innings. He doesn't really have an out pitch (only 28 strikeouts in 70.2 innings last year), but he does get a lot of groundballs (58.9% GB%, 2.69 GB/FB). Of the teams he faced last year for any significant amount (more than 7 innings), the Mariners (.383 OPS-against) and the Blue Jays (.436 OPS-against) were the only teams he held to a sub-.850 OPS-against. Boston (1.004 OPS-against), Chicago (.885 OPS-against), and Minnesota (1.216 OPS-against) all absolutely destroyed him.

Given the recent offensive struggles of the Mariners, and the downright suckitude of Ryan Feierabend, this game could be out of hand before you know it. Ameriquest has been less of a hitter's park over the last few years (2007 park factors: batting - 104, pitching - 103), but can still hurt flyball heavy pitchers with lousy control (Feierabend, I'm looking at you: 4.97 BB/9, 0.69 GB/FB).

Lineups are in:

Seattle -
Ichiro DH
Lopez 2B
Guillen RF
Beltre 3B
Sexson 1B
Johjima C
Betancourt SS
Bloomquist CF
Ellison LF

Texas -
Hairston RF
Young SS
Teixeira 1B
Sosa DH
Byrd CF
Melhuse C
Wilkerson LF
Relaford 2B
Metcalf 3B

A Glance at Richie Sexson

Richie Sexson's struggles have been well documented, by both the team and fans. He's been moved around in the lineup. He's logged 88, 231, 25, and 12 plate appearances batting 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th respectively, while being the subject of boos and the occasional article in the papers. However, most remain optimistic because Sexson is historically a second-half hitter. In his career, Sexson has an .806 OPS (87 tOPS+) before the break, and a .939 OPS (117 tOPS+) after the break. Let's look at his first half/second half OPS over his career:

2006: .706/1.012
2005: .865/.962
2004: Injury shortened year
2003: .889/.980
2002: .882/.847
2001: .792/.995
2000: .753/961
1999: .790/.850

2007 (so far): .712/.649

2002 was the only full year of his career in which he had a higher OPS in the first half. Weather is probably the most likely explanation for this huge disparity in his numbers. Of the four teams he has played for (Cleveland, Milwaukee, Arizona, and Seattle), three play in what one could call "cold climates."

The real question this year is will Sexson follow his normal trend and have a strong second half? Perhaps something lies in the statistics more given to luck (BABIP) or his tendencies as a hitter (GB%, BB%, LD%, HR/FB) that will tell us what to expect in the second half, as opposed to the traditional statistics:

BABIP -
Career: .299
2007: .209

That's a huge, huge difference. Normally, I would say he's due for some regression, meaning more of his batted balls that are going for outs will begin falling for hits. However, let's keep digging before pronouncing Sexson's struggles this year as bad luck.

GB% -
Career: 44.4%
2007: 49.2% (19th highest in the league, among Luis Castillo, Michael Young, Derek Jeter, and Ichiro in the top 20)

Now we're getting somewhere. He's hitting a lot more balls on the ground this year. Generally, speedy slap hitters (Ichiro, Lofton, Pierre) are the heavy groundball hitters, because they have the speed to leg out infield hits and make infielders rush their throws. It's no secret that Sexson moves about as fast as the Empire State Building on a good day. He simply doesn't have the tools to succeed while hitting the ball on the ground. This could be a big reason why his batting average of balls in play is so low.

LD% -
Career: 19.0%
2007: 13.8%

A player simply can't survive in the major leagues with only 14% of his hits going for line drives. Line drives are the surest form for scoring runs as each line drive is "worth" roughly 0.4 runs (outfield fly balls are "worth" the second most at about .05 runs, and groundballs are "worth" -0.1 runs...this can be largely attributed to the higher likelihood of double plays). To give you a sense of how terrible a 13.8% line drive rate is, Sexson ranks 171st out of 177 qualified major leaguers (ahead of only Gerald Laird, Ray Durham, Chris Young, Aubrey Huff, Casey Kotchman, and Brian Schneider). So our $14M per year first baseman is in the same company as two backup catchers, an over-the-hill second baseman, an overrated young outfielder, a one-hit-wonder third baseman, and an injured young first baseman. That's some good company.

HR/FB -
Career: 22.8%
2007: 16.9%

Not only is Sexson hitting the ball on the ground more often and hitting weak flyballs, as his LD% tells us, but fewer of his flyballs are leaving the yard. This is a nightmare, because if his flyballs aren't going for homers anymore and he's not hitting the ball hard anywhere else, we've got the recipe for a piss-poor hitter with little hope for recovery.

When looking at component stats, regression to the mean is largely dependent on whether or not the player is still major league quality hitter. When looking at the numbers presented here, it looks more and more likely that Sexson is done being a productive player. He's either hiding an injury, or Safeco is becoming too much for him to overcome and he's trying to change his plate approach. His first year in a Mariners uniform was very successful, especially when you account for the park he plays half his games in. However, he's two years older now and is reaching the significant decline phase of his career. Safeco notoriously feasts on right-handed power hitters, and it looks as if it has claimed another victim in Richie Sexson. I'm not discounting him completely, as a change of scenery would probably do him well. However, his declining bat, and absolutely abysmal play in the field makes him a giant blackhole on the team. He is being paid as one of the elite players in the game. While he was never worth what he was being paid, the past two years have been especially bad. Too many people point out Beltre's contract as the albatross on the team, but really Sexson should be taking way more heat than he has been.

Will he continue to hit under .200 for the rest of the year? Probably not. Will he be worth $14M this year? Absolutely not.

Two Hernandez's in the Rotation?

The New Jersey Star-Ledger, who it seems always has new information regarding teams that have nothing to do with New Jersey, reported that the Mariners are one of a few teams who have shown interest in D'backs starter Livan Hernandez. This year, Hernandez is 5-6 with a 4.77 era, 1.62 whip, 62 strikeouts, and 56 walks. To me, this guy is very hard to figure out. Career wise, he's got a respectable 4.22 era, but some years he has been much better than that. In 2003-2005, Hernandez had two fifteen win seasons and was under a 4.00 era in all three years. Yet it seems like he may have already reached his pinnacle of success. Would he work for the Mariners? He could. But his inconsistency is troubling... I know about this first hand as he's been in and out of my fantasy rotations for the last three years. There simply is no method to the madness. He obviously wouldn't cost as much as Bedard or even a Contreras, but then again he brings more risk. I think M's management will only strike a deal to land Hernandez if better options have been struck down.

http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-2/1185164709129720.xml&coll=1

Pineiro DFA'ed by Red Sox

This made me giggle a little bit. Mariner's alumni Joel Pineiro was designated for assignment by the Boston Red Sox today as they make room in the bullpen for Jon Lester. Story can be found at the link below.

http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/sp_bb_redsoxjo23_07-23-07_QQ6FG0O.314945f.html