Bullpen Dynamics

In 2007, the Mariners had one of the best bullpens in baseball as well as one of the youngest as minor league talent translated well into major league success. However, towards the end of the year, the bullpen struggled and contributed to the decline of the Mariners sparking several questions about the stability and organization of the bullpen. Who's the legitimate set-up man? Do we need a veteran in the bullpen? How many lefties is too many? In this post, I hope to answer some of those questions and provide a rough plan for the bullpen in 2008.

When it comes to the bullpen, relief pitchers are not created equal. There are vast differences in the various roles that relievers play within the bullpen and it's crucial to understand those roles before plugging guys into certain spots. A bullpen typically consists of the following:

> Long Reliever (LR): This role, sometimes regarded as "mop-up work," is not really a desired role for pitchers, but somebody has to do it. They are used early in the game, usually in the first four innings, when a starting pitcher has to leave the game because of injury, rain delay, fatigue, ejection, or is just being flat-out pummeled. Their goal is usually to keep the game within reach and give the offense a chance to get back in it. Normally, a long reliever is a former starter who has been banished to the bullpen in order to get back on track in a less pressurized situation.

> Middle Reliever (MR): The majority of pitchers in any given bullpen normally classify as middle relief. They are typically used right after a starting pitcher has put forth a mediocre, five or six inning effort. It is hoped that a relief pitcher coming into the game is more effective than the starter and will allow the team to get back into the game if they are behind before it gets too late. Middle relievers are also important because they can be viable options out of the pen which allows the manager to save the late inning guys for specific situations. Often times, young pitchers fresh out of the minor leagues get a chance to audition in middle relief in hopes of landing a more important pitching role.

> Left-handed Specialist (LHS): A left-handed specialist is not necessarily simply a left-handed reliever. The term "specialist" comes from the the idea that they only face one or two batters; usually left-handed hitters. This is because when a left-handed pitcher throws a breaking pitch to a left-handed batter, it will tend to sweep away from the hitter making it more difficult to hit. Since there are more right-handed pitchers, left-handed hitters have less opportunities to bat against left-handers and, therefore, often struggle. Some left-handed specialists take advtantage of this by developing a delivery that intensifies the break on their pitches making it that much harder on the hitters they face. Most teams carry atleast one left-handed specialist in their bullpen and they are typically used in the mid to late innings but can be used earlier to get a big out against good left-handed hitter.

> Right-handed Specialist (RHS): The job description of a right-handed specialist is essentially the same as a left-handed specialist, just flipped around. It is rarer to see a pitcher who is classified into this role simply because no matter what their throwing motion looks like, right-handed hitters have more experience at hitting right-handed pitchers. There are those, like Chad Bradford, who have such an uncommon delivery that they can be an effective right-handed specialist. Usually, this uncommon delivery is in the form of a "submarine" delivery.

> Set-up Man (SET): The setup man is arguably the most important relief pitcher and is used to bridge the gap from the starter or reliever to the closer. This is normally the 8th inning but some setup men who feel comfortable going two innings will come in during the 7th inning. It is not uncommon for a team to have two of these; one left-handed and one right-handed.

> Closer (CL): The closer should be the best pitcher in the bullpen. He is the guy that you want out there with the game on the line, so being consistently dominant is an important characteristic. Being able to go out there whenever the game is on the line comes with a lot of pressure, so a big league closer needs to have a certain attitude that will allow him to deal with that pressure. It's often said that a closer should have a short memory so that he can go out there a day or two after blowing a save and show no signs of it affecting him. Typically, they should have a high level of intensity as well as a one spectacular pitch whether it be a smokin' fastball, a sharp breaking ball, or a splitter that falls right off the shelf. They are used almost exclusively in the 9th inning with their team leading by a small margin.

Candidates: Cha Seung Baek (R), R.A. Dickey (R), Ryan Feierabend (L), Sean Green (R), Jon Huber (R), Cesar Jimenez (L), Mark Lowe (R), Brandon Morrow (R), Eric O'Flaherty (L), John Parrish (L), J.J. Putz (R), Horacio Ramirez (L), Ryan Rowland-Smith (L), George Sherrill (L), Sean White (R), Joseph Woerman (R)

My 2008 Mariners Bullpen (assuming all of the above pitchers are not in the starting rotation):

> LR: Ryan Rowland-Smith (L), R.A. Dickey (R)
> MR: Sean Green (R), Mark Lowe (R), Jon Huber (R)
> LHS: Eric O'Flaherty (L)
> RHS: --
> SET: Brandon Morrow (R), George Sherrill (L)
> CL: J.J. Putz (R)

Do we need to go out and get a veteran for the pen?

No way. Our bullpen was kicking through the first three quarters of the 2007 season up until we did try to bring in some veterans (John Parrish and Rick White). Instead of helping our young guys out, they just brought the bullpen and the team down with poor performances out on the mound. I would have liked to have seen Bill Bavasi go after a guy like Mike Timlin who is a veteran as well as a GOOD PITCHER. It is good to have Norm Charlton as the bullpen coach as he will surely provide a veteran presence.

How many lefties is too many?

I don't want to set a specific number on it, but after acquiring John Parrish last year, there were something like four or five out there in the pen which was certainly too many. My plan calls for 3 of the 9 pitchers to be left-handed.

Who's the legitimate setup man?

I do like the idea of having a left-handed and a right-handed setup man and I think we've got two guys in Morrow and Sherrill who are perfect for that role. Sherrill absolutely dominates lefties and Morrow has the fastball velocity to be effective in the 7th and 8th innings. The only concern with Morrow is his control, but he seemed to improve as the season when on. If Sherrill and or Morrow happens to be traded this offseason, Sean Green would fill the right-handed spot and Eric O'Flaherty would fill the left-handed spot.

Bavasi's Uphill Battle

So a lot of people out there think that GM Bavasi has no plan. Incorrect. He has a plan, it is just an uphill battle (hence the title).

Plan A - Johan Santana
Obviously, the best on the planet. Any team would be drooling just to have him on their roster, let alone IN THE TRADE RUMORS. This isn't going to be an easy trade though. Santana has a "no-trade" clause and would most likely wave the Mariners as a suitor because if he goes to the West Coast, he wants to be on a 1st place team. Now, no offense Mr. Santana, but with you in our rotation, I would gamble to say we would be pretty dang close to getting 1st. Santana also has another drawback, and that is his pricetag. I haven't heard anything recently on the new asking price, but it won't be easy to compensate for him. He comes with a new salary also. Here's what I don't understand: If we get the trade through, we have the money to pay the salary. Our owners have pretty dang deep pockets, since we are owned by Nintendo.

I am calling out Bavasi right now, to get off the couch and hardcore pursue Santana. Santana is a once in a decade, heck, maybe two decade pitcher. Just the fact that our team has been mentioned isn't enough. We need to land him. He is a safer bet than Bedard.

Plan B - Erik Bedard
Bedard is the most risky bet. Bedard's asking price is immense since his contract doesn't end until the end of 2009. He is a fan favorite in Baltimore. I mean, how could he not be on a terrible team, but that is keeping him closer to the organization. He is going to come with a risk also. He's not produced the numbers that Santana has put out.

Also, and this is another thing I don't understand, he will cost more than Santana. Don't ask me how that is possible, but it is. They are asking for Jones, Morrow, Sherrill and/or Balentien. This would be the dumbest thing ever. Trading Jones and Balentien in the same deal, let alone the same off-season shouldn't even be considered, and the Mariners should pull away from that now. No way is a not-so-much-proven pitcher worth that. He's also going to get a lot of money with his next new contract (FA after '10), so we would have to be able to resign him.

Safer bet = Santana
More reward for the risk = Santana
Better pitcher = Santana
Easier to coax into the Mariners organization = Santana

This shouldn't be a hard decision for Bavasi. He should put all his efforts and thoughts into Johan Santana, and fall back on Bedard only as a back-up plan.

Poll Results: Trade for Santana?

Should the Mariners trade Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and Brandon Morrow to the Twins for starting pitcher Johan Santana? Vote only once.

Yes, but only if the Twins sign him to a contract first: 18 Votes (41%)

Yes, regardless if the Twins sign him to a contract or not: 5 Votes (11%)

No: 20 votes (46%)

Poll closed on 12/6/07

Interesting... Glad to see that 43 votes were cast! Hopefully everyone respected the integrity of the poll and voted only once.

Thursday Quote: Good to be a Pessimist

I'm pretty thrilled about this week's quote from George Will; a conservative journalist and news paper columnist.

"The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised."

This week's annual Winter Meetings for baseball general managers in Nashville, Tennessee just ended today and the Mariners, like many teams, are coming home empty handed. I began the week advising Mariner fans to "brace yourselves for nothing to happen." I gave this advice because over the last few years, we have been disappointed time after time with bad trades, no trades, bad free agent signings, and no free agent signings to the point where I've come to expect this type of thing from our front office. Now that I'm at the point of pessimism, I have experienced one of its two sides; I've been proven right. When given the choice, I would rather be pleasantly surprised ten times out of ten; but that's not how surprises work. That said, I'm not at all surprised that we came away from the Winter Meetings with the same players we went in with and I hope that Bavasi and Co. will "pleasantly surprise" me before the season begins. Until that happens, I guess I will continue to be a pessimist and use the front office's track record as a means of predicting the future only to more than likely be proved right.

Mariners Rule 5 Draft Picks

The Rule 5 Draft is part of MLB's collective bargaining agreement that occurs once a year at the Winter Meetings. Basically, teams get to choose minor league players from other organizations who are not on that team's 40-man roster. A team that makes a selection must add that selection to their 40-man roster; meaning if there is no room, they may not select a player. When the season starts, the selection must remain on the 25-man roster for the entire season in order for the team to have the power to option him to the minors or designate him for assignment. If he does not remain on the 25-man roster for the entire season, he must be offered back to the team from which he was selected from.

Major League Phase

R.A. Dickey (from Minnesota): Robert Alan Dickey is a 33-year old, righthanded knuckleballer from Nashville, Tennessee. He started out his career in Texas after being drafted by the Rangers in 1996. Dickey made his major league debut in 2001 with Texas but never proved to be consistently good enough to remain in the majors. The Rangers gave him another chance in 2006 as their fifth starter after he became a knuckleball pitcher in the minor leagues in an attempt to find more success. His stay in the rotation was short-lived as he was demoted to the minors after giving up a record tying six homeruns in his first start. Last January, Dickey signed a minor league contract with the Milwaukee Brewers and spent 2007 with their triple-A affiliate; the Nashville Sounds of the Pacific Coast League. There, he compiled an impressive 12-6 record with a 3.80 era leading him to be named Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year. Some of his success in the minor leagues may be attributed to the fact that he faced younger hitters that are yet to develop the plate discipline of players in the major leagues making his knuckleball seem more effective than it actually is. On November 28th, he became a minor league free agent and signed with the Minnesota Twins with an invite to Spring Training only to be selected by the M's in the Rule 5 Draft about a week later.

As far as the impact that Dickey could have on the Mariners, it is assumed that he will be invited to Spring Training and given a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation should that spot still be open. In the end, this pick may not be that bad. At the least, he is a guy with some big-league experience that could step in to make some emergency starts if needed.

AAA Phase

None

AA Phase

None

Note: The Mariners did lose right-handed relief pitcher Juan Sandoval to the Milwaukee Brewers organization in the triple-A phase of the draft. Last year, he recorded a 5.75 era with a 2-6 record between West Tennessee (AA) and Tacoma (AAA).

Winter Meetings: Newest Developments

UPDATED 12/6 @ 8:21 AM EASTERN / 5:21 AM PACIFIC

• Hiroki Kuroda: Reports indicate that Kuroda will visit Seattle, Arizona, and LA (Dodgers) before making a decision. These are three of the four supposed finalists with the other thought to be the Mets. Originally, it was thought that all teams involved had offered around 3 years/30 million for Kuroda; but Geoff Baker now believes that the Mariners have indeed added a fourth year to the offer. If this is the case, expect the Dodgers to do the same.
• Raul Ibanez: The Cubs and the Indians have shown interest in Ibanez. mlbtraderumors.com mentions the possibility of the Mariners acquiring starting pitcher Cliff Lee from the Indians inreturn for Raul. If Japanese import Fukudome signs with the Cubs, don't expect Ibanez to be heading to Chicago. If they don't sign him, however, Keep your eyes on starting pitcher Sean Marshall.
• Darin Erstad: Rotoworld reports that the Mariners are one of atleast four teams who have inquired about 1B/OF/DH Darin Erstad of the White Sox. At this point in time, the Mariners have absolutely no use for Erstad so I'm not sure why he's being brought up besides the fact that Bavasi was GM in Anaheim the same time that Erstad played there.
• Richie Sexson: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Mariners are intent on trading Richie Sexson and names the Orioles, Giants, Devil Rays, and Yankees as possible candidates for his services. A report a couple days ago mentioned a deal with San Francisco that would send Sexson to the Giants in return for Ray Durham. Seattle would most likely have to pay atleast part of Sexson's 08 salary if he is traded anywhere. Since Broussard was apparently offered to the Rays for Edwin Jackson (deal was rejected by TB), Sexson is probably safe for the time being.
• Edwin Jackson: The Mariners are reportedly interested in starting pitcher Edwin Jackson of the Devil Rays. This isn't really surprisng considering his name was tossed around at the 07 trading deadline. Originally, a Broussard for Jackson swap seemed possible until the Seattle Times reported that the Rays had rejected this deal. The word seems to be that Tampa Bay may want catcher prospect Rob Johnson as well as Broussard.
• Matt Clement: The Mariners are one of at least three teams who have shown interest in starting pitcher Matt Clement.
• Erik Bedard: The Mariners are now one of three teams pushing aggressively for Orioles ace Erik Bedard along with the Mets and Dodgers. A deal would probably be centered around some type of combination of Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, Wlad Balentien, and George Sherrill and would likely not involve Jeff Clement as the O's don't need a catcher. There are at least eleven other teams pursuing Bedard though an O's source said Seattle may be the best fit.
• Marcus Giles: The free agent second baseman has drawn interest from the Mariners, the Rockies, and atleast one other NL team. He would command around 4 million dollars a year and should the Mariners sign him, he would be used to challenge Jose Lopez for the starting position at second base or allow the M's to deal Lopez to another team (though not likely).
• Ben Sheets: It seems as if this rumor is just about dead and the Mariners are no longer looking into Ben Sheets though they have met with the Brewers; possibly about other pitchers like Chris Capuano.
• ???: A report on mlbtraderumors.com mentions that the GM of the Cardinals, John Mozeliak, met with the Mariners today as well as the Brewers (regarding Rolen [STL]), the Orioles (regarding Tejada [BAL]), and the Brewers (regarding Anthony Reyes [STL] and Edmonds [STL]). I doubt the conversations with Seattle involved Rolen or Edmonds, but possibly young starter Anthony Reyes.
• Mark Loretta: The Mariners have talked to Mark Loretta's agent about signing the veteran second baseman and using him as a utility infielder. mlbtraderumors.com figures the M's would be willing to pay him around 2 million dollars. The Rockies seem to be the more likely choice for Loretta should he reject arbitration from the Astros.
• Tim Linceum: It's been reported that the Mariners have been linked to San Francisco's young starting pitcher Tim Linceum. While Giants GM Brian Sabean is not shopping Linceum, the M's could put together a package including Richie Sexson. Don't put too much stock in this one...
• Ben Broussard: Two teams seem interested; the Giants and the Rangers. They may wait to see if the Mariners tender him a contract or not.
• Jose Lopez: Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has reported that the Mariners are using Jose Lopez as trade bait. The Nationals, Giants, Rockies and Twins are teams in need of a second baseman.
• David Wells: The Mariners and the Reds are considering the veteran starter. Call it being desperate or call it covering all bases... It's just not a good idea.
• George Sherrill: Bill Bavasi has mentioned that several teams have shown interest in the left-handed specialist.
• Geoff Jenkins: The Seattle Times reports that the Mariners have been in contact with the agent of leftfielder Geoff Jenkins. He seems to only be a possibility if Ibanez or Sexson is traded.
• Johan Santana: It is assumed that the Mariners will finally be able to begin negotiations with the Twins over the hottest commodity this offseason; Johan Santana. Previously, it seemed as if the Twins were only interested in talking with the Red Sox and the Yankees. Now that the Yankees and Red Sox are moving out of the picture, it would make sense for other interested teams to jump in. The Mariners would most likely put together a package of Brandon Morrow, Adam Jones, and Jeff Clement, though maybe not in their initial offer.

Baltimore Not in Bedard's Future

The Washington Post reported that left-handed pitcher Erik Bedard has told the Baltimore Orioles that he has no intentions of signing a contract extension to remain in Baltimore, increasing the chances that he might be traded sooner rather than later. There are disagreements among the baseball community about what it would cost to acquire Bedard from the O's with some reports saying that the Orioles would want four prospects for him; more than the Twins want for Santana. A Baltimore Sun article yesterday reported that the Mariners are one of six teams that have expressed interest in Bedard, along with the Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Diamondbacks. One would have to figure that the Red Sox will get into the mix sooner or later. The consensus at the Winter Meetings is that the Orioles would like to make some fundamental changes so keep your eye on Bedard.

Cubs Interested in Ibanez?

Chicago Cubs GM Jim Hendry has made his apirations to acquire a left-handed bat quite clear this offseason and the name Raul Ibanez has been tossed around as a potential candidate. It's hard to gauge where management stands on Raul Ibanez and if they consider Wladamir Balentien to be ready for a full-time job in the big leagues. The Cubs have also toyed with the idea of trading Mark Prior before they have to tender him a contract for the 2008 season in about a week. If the Mariners are willing to take a risk on Mark Prior and hope that he can get healthy and then stay healthy, I wouldn't be completely surprised if the two teams struck a deal involving Prior and Ibanez.

Santana Makes Ultimatum

According to the Providence Journal, Johan Santana has told the Twins that he would not only use his no trade clause to block any trade during the season, but that he would use it in the coming week on any deal involving a team not named the Yankees or the Red Sox. This effectively puts an end to any hope Mariner fans had of acquiring the All Star southpaw this offseason.

Meanwhile, the Mariners contingent arrived in Nashville the other day for the annual Winter Meetings that are set to begin today and continue through Wednesday. Keep checking back with Mariner Nation for news and analysis of the Winter Meetings.

Mariners Decline Arbitration on Guillen, Others

Rotoworld reported early this morning that the Mariners declined to offer arbitration to Jose Guillen, Jeff Weaver, Arthur Rhodes, and Chris Retisma. Obviously the big news here is Jose Guillen and the fact that the Mariners did not want to take a chance on him accepting arbitration according to Rotoworld. While many fans seem to be emotionally distraught with his departure, it does paint a clearer picture of what may be in the immediate future. I expect Adam Jones to assume the vacancy in right field and Raul Ibanez to continue patrolling left, though most fans cringe when they picture Ibanez in the outfield. The idea of putting Ibanez at designated hitter is certainly intriguing, but it would cause a chain reaction of questions that would have to be answered regarding the roles of Ben Broussard, Jose Vidro, and Wladamir Balentien (assuming he would get playing time in left).

It's going to be interesting to see what goes down at the Winter Meetings in the next couple of days. I would feel a lot more comfortable if most of the offseason questions are addressed this week; including the rotation. All the advice I can give Mariner fans is pray for terrible things not to happen, brace yourselves for nothing to happen, and hope that something good happens.

And another thing: DING-DONG JEFF WEAVER'S GONE!

Hot Stove: 12/1/07

• Updating previous reports, the Mariners are still waiting for Japanese ace Hiroki Kuroda to make a decision. It has been reported that the Mariners have made the most aggressive offer that would lock him down for four years.

• mlbtraderumors.com reports that the Mariners have been in talks with Jeremy Affeldt's agent. Affeldt, a left-handed pitcher, used to start games for the Kansas City Royals when he came up in 2002 until mid-2004 (and then 9 games in 2006) when he was converted to a reliever. For his career, he has a career ERA of 4.74 and a record of 25-27. Last season was by far his best year on record as he went 4-3 with a 3.51 era in 75 games for the Colorado Rockies. However, those numbers could be misleading because in those 75 games, he only pitched 59 innings which means that he was probably used a lot against left-handed batters. This would make sense since his ERA against those lefty hitters last year was 3.27. When push comes to shove, I don't think that Affeldt would be a good fit for Seattle, mainly because he has had limited success as a starter in the big leagues and has only started nine games in the last three years.

• mlbtraderumors.com also points out that Bavasi doesn't seem to be content with Jose Lopez at second base and may look for other alternatives like Tadahito Iguchi, David Eckstein, and Marcus Giles. They even mentioned a possible trade with the San Francisco Giants where Richie Sexson would be shipped to San Fran in return for washed up second baseman Ray Durham. In regards to that trade, I see no logic behind replacing the up-and-coming Jose Lopez with 36-year old Ray Durham who has never hit over .300 and hit a mere .218 last year. As for signing one of the other free agent second baseman, I am completely against it. I don't understand why management has all of a suddent lost hope in Jose Lopez. He and Yunieski Betancourt are the best double play tandem in the majors and to lose that would be devastating. Sure Lopez has struggled in the second half of the season in his first two years in the bigs, but give him a break! He has already proven to everyone that he can hit, so let's atleast see how he begins the season. Oh by the way, Yung Chi Chen is waiting in the wings and many believe he would be a viable option should Lopez fall on his face.

• The Mariners have the option of offering Jose Guillen an arbitration salary. If Guillen agrees to accept what the Mariners want to pay him, he will be signed through 2008. If he rejects the arbitration offer, he will become an unrestricted free agent. The likely scenario is the latter.

Igawa's Name Surfacing Again

mlbtraderumors.com has listed the Mariners as a team who may have interest in trading for the disgruntled Yankee. Should Kuroda sign elsewhere, the Mariners may look to deal for Igawa since he is extremely inexpensive as far as contracts go (owed 4 mil a year thru 2011) and will probably not cost a lot on the market due to his struggles thus far in the states coupled with the fact that the Yankees don't have a rotation spot available for him. If he is unsuccessful, we can simply do what the Yankees did, demote him to the minors. Four million dollars a year is miniscule compared to what other guys are making and he could potentially be a diamond in the rough who just hasn't been in the right situation to thrive in New York. The chances of the Mariners having two Japanese starters in the rotation next year are slim, so I expect a deal would only be considered if Kuroda signs elsewhere.

Speaking of Kuroda, he recently said that he has not made a decision yet and has to carefully think about his future.

Thursday Quote: Creating a Better Future

This week, I'm drawing from the wisdom of futurist John Renesch.

"There's no reason people who work have to be resigned to situations and endure circumstances when we all possess the power to create better futures."

As Dustin mentioned earlier, there has been a lot of discussion about what exactly the future of the Mariners should be. Do we keep our top prospects with the hopes that they live up to our expectations or do we let them go and guarantee that we'll have the best pitcher in baseball for the next four or five years. To be honest with you, I'm not really sure. There are definitely some pro's and con's to each option that must be weighed before making a judgement. Whatever decision management makes in the end, there are going to be a great deal of fans who disagree. The good thing about the situation right now is that we are atleast involved in the Johan Santana talks. If anything, it shows initative and recognition of the fact that we have a gaping hole that we need to fill. As Renesch said, we all have the ability to brighten our future. We all have the ability to decide what we have in store for the future instead of succumbing to what the future has in store for us. Let's just hope that what ever decision is made, it is made for the right reasons...

Why Clement, Jones and Morrow are Tradeable

People are putting a price on winning. "We are trading away too much and his contract is too heavy to afford." That is all I've heard.

I can't believe you people are willing to just give up on the best pitcher on the planet. Simple as that. We cannot win with our rotation. Jones is still a work in progress, and I still don't see him becoming a full-fledged superstar, Morrow is another HUGE work in progress and Clement is stuck in a spot where his playing time will be limited. I'll summarize my point once again.

Morrow - Morrow does not have what it takes to be a starter, yet. It will take time. He pitched 3, 4 innings max in a game this year, and he started to get hit hard later it seemed. He was totally inconsistent throughout the year. If we push him to start, he's going to get shelled early and often. All he is, is a pitcher who throws hard. Worst, he's right handed. A right handed guy who can only throw his fastball is worthless in the rotation. If we move him to the bullpen, he won't be as effective. He could, in theory be a dominant closer in the future. He only needs to throw his fastball, change-up and occasional breaking ball. He has the making of a DOMINANT closer. Problem? We have Putz. We don't need Morrow.

Clement - He is stuck. He won't get much playing time. Johjima is going to be the starting catcher. His CS% was the highest among regular, full time catchers and he is a gold glove caliber catcher. You could argue that he should have won it this year. Clement won't get time at DH since we have the ever-consistent Vidro at DH anchoring the line-up with a .300 average all year. He can't be moved to first since we are stuck with that lard 1st baseman Sexson. As of now, Sexson isn't being put out on the market, so for now, 1st base is his. So Clement will see sporatic playing time between catching Johjima in the days off, assuming Burke is still with the team. He won't get time at 1st because we still have Broussard who needs more playing time, and will get it when Sexson has his days off. DH won't be Clements because we have Ibanez and Vidro as the top two cantidates starting in the DH slot, most likely in a platoon.

Jones - I'm stuck here. I want to see him live out his potential and his hype, but he just isn't impressive. His career average, as of the last game of the season, is only a mere .230. That is nothing, at all. He has 3 home runes and only 12 RBIs in 73 games. 32 hits in a total of 73 games. He is just not impressive. He has also made 5 errors in his 73 games. That is about 12 or 13 errors a year, in a 162 game season. That is pathetic.

We don't need this. There is nothing that jumps out at me saying, "Hey, Bavasi, don't trade our future!" We could use Johan, who is still 28, a lot more than we can use our undeveloped and unfulfilled "future" and hype.

Pursuit of Johan Santana

Introduction:
So as we should all know, the Mariners are still in the running for landing Johan Santana. Now, let's get past the obvious, it is going to cost some serious money. However, let's think about this. The Mariners are in desperate need of an upgrade in their rotation, and what better way to start than by getting the best pitcher on the planet?

Numbers:
Santana is a winner. In his 4 full seasons as a starter Santana is 70-32, with an average ERA in those 4 season that is an astounding 2.89. Those are unheard of. Let's delve further into the stats. His total strikeouts in that 4 year run total 983, compared to just 198 walks. People, that is almost a 5 K/BB ratio. For a power pitcher, that is rediculous. We haven't seen numbers like those since Pedro Martinez's run with the Boston Red Sox. His years there, he was Cy Young. Johan Santana has won 2 of the last 4 Cy Young Awards. In the crunch, he is even better. In the last 4 season he has a Post-All Star record of 36-14. Coincidence: The Mariners fold in the 2nd half every team our name has a playoff lable on it!

Intangibles:
Safeco Field would be the perfect fit for Santana. Safeco Field favors the left handed pitcher, well, even pitchers in general. However, the left hander is dominant in Safeco. Johan, is a dominant left handed pitcher. Love? Next, and maybe less of Santana and more of his catcher, but in his 4 years as starter, Santana has allowed 20 stolen bases, and 22 men have been caught stealing. Yes, over 50% of base runners have been caught during his full time starting tenure. One less man on base is one less runner and one less potential run. Next, Santana is a workhorse. In those 4 years as the starter in Minnesota, Santana has logged 912.1 innings, or 228 innings per year. That averages out at about 7 innings per game, also. The sooner we can get the ball from Santana to Putz, the better chance we have at winning.

The Price:
It is reported that he is seeking 5 years and $126 million. Yeah, I won't lie, that is a lot of money. However, let us think about this. The numbers have already shown you what he can do. Here is the real question: How badly to the Mariners want to win and what is the price of winning? To me, the price of winning is $126 million. Yes, Johan Santana is worth every penny. He has been the most dominant pitcher in the last 4 years, and you can argue 5 (he began starting about half way through 2003, but didn't hold onto a full time spot until 2004.) Santana is a once in a decade, one in a career (front office career) type offer.

The price isn't limited to money. The Twins have outlined that they would like Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Jeff Clement. To some people, this may seem like too much to trade away. I however, say it is would be worth it. Let's look at this: None of them are nowhere as proven in the MLB as Santana.

Adam Jones has struggled in his two stints with the big club, and struggled mightily. He has been extremely unsuccessful at the plate, showing little discipline, and has struggled to use his power. In the field, I don't know what is going on. He's supposed to be great, but he's been making routine plays seem like highlight reel catches. He has been compared to the greatest Mariner ever, Ken Griffey Jr. That is setting him up for failure. Not to mention, Torri Hunter just left the Twins, so center is wide open for Adam Jones to take over.

Brandon Morrow has seen time, has been demoted, promoted, and anything in between. He has struggled with his control, and is about as streaky as they come. I don't know what they would do with Morrow, meaning, I don't know if they would keep him in the bullpen or convert him to the starting rotation, but either way, they gain an electric arm.

Jeff Clement has never really rubbed me right until his September callup. When McLaren went nuts with playing the Rainiers against the MLB I thought he was stupid. I saw Clement's numbers [in AAA] and thought he would die. He proved me wrong. I saw both of his home runs at Safeco, and he looked extremely impressive. With the possibility of Joe Mauer being moved to an every day spot to save his knees, Clement would fit in perfect in Minnesota.

Outside Sources:
Buster Olney (of ESPN) posted a blog (Insider: Free, recently made "unfree") saying that a Santana trade seems impossible. The impossible factor was the money. Nobody is sure whether or not the Twins will be able to resign Santana. If resigned then traded, that will save money. (IE - Carlos Zambrano, who could command more money than Santana.) If not resigned by Santana, that is where it gets insanely disgusting. He could run up the table more. His $126 million was his Twins counter-offer. On an open market, he's free game.

Larry Larue (of The Tacoma News Tribune) posted a article on the money aspect of free agency and trades. He referenced Santana and the money he commanded. He said, "The Mariners and a half-dozen other teams still have interest in trading for Santana, but each of them took a large gulp after hearing that figure. Now, to obtain Santana it will take a package of ready-for-prime-time talent – and $126 million." The Mariners fit every checkmark. First, we have been mentioned in the running. Second, we have ready-for-prime time talent. All three guys have seen time in the MLB. Finally, the money. Okay, don't get me wrong, it will cost us. But, is there a price on winning? We are owned by Nintendo, so, if we are ever short on money, we can take a loan from the only gaming system currently making money. Coincidence? I only hope.

Finale:
Now, here is what I really mean. I want Johan Santana. I want somebody to teach Felix how to pitch, and a Johan/Felix 1-2 punch would be a top-of-the-line rotation. I am in love with the guy on the mound. He is putting on one of the most dominant runs in baseball in the last 30 years. He has been lights out and consistent, about as good as it comes.

My Summary
I want Johan Santana.

Another Opinion; (An Opposition To Johan):
Fellow learned blogger, Jon:
http://theseattlemariners.blogspot.com/2007/11/cost-of-johan-santana.html

Sources:
Johan Santana stats:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4280
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4280

Tacoma News Tribune:
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/212490.html

Miscellaneous:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3121887

Hot Stove: 11/25/07

-Randy Wolf, possibly one of the better free agent pitchers out there, has received a contract offer from the Philadelphia Phillies. Wolf pitched for the Phillies before signing a contract for his favorite team growing up, the Dodgers, in a injury plagued season in 2007. Delaware Online reports that Wolf often watched Phillies games while with the Dodgers, kept in contact with Phillies players and the "Wolf pack" who cheered him on from the upper deck at Citizens Bank Park. In my opinion, all signs point to him rejoining the Phillies so cross Wolf off the Mariners list (if he was there in the first place).

-Delaware Online has also reported that the Phillies have offered Hiroki Kuroda a contract. They do recognize that it is a long shot and that Seattle is probably the top contender for his services. Something I didn't know, Kuroda's agent, Joe Urbon, is based in Seattle.

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071125/SPORTS01/711250386/1021

Kuroda Film

Tonight, I decided to take a look at some film of the much-talked-about future (hopefully) Mariner Hiroki Kuroda pitching for the Hiroshima Carp. There have been some rumors that his fastball can hit 96 mph but I'm not believing them after the film I've watched. I watched him throw about fifteen pitches and here is what I saw:

• An average fastball that ranged from 89 to 92
• An average to good slider that ranged from 76 to 81
• An average to good forkball that was consistently around 86
• Good control, good composure
• A slightly staggered but not so funky windup

He's everything I thought he'd be. Hopefully his meetings with Bavasi and McLaren went well

A couple videos of Kuroda pitching:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=r6QhfHMxWPA

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ZycHPwbcuHQ

Fred Claus

As the hot stove continues to burn away, general managers will surely focus first on getting a nice Christmas gift in the form of a starting pitcher for their respective teams. While the offseason seas are relatively quiet with only a couple marquee players being reeled in, the inevitable frenzy is bound to have general managers scrambling around like Arnold Schwarzenegger in Jingle All the Way. One of the big starting pitcher prizes this year is former Mariner Freddy Garcia who finished out a three year contract as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies last year. His season was a short one due to a shoulder injury that required surgery on his labrum and rotator cuff. Garcia's agent, Peter Greenberg, said that the Mets have shown "considerable interest" in Garcia as well as some other teams. The Mets just missed out on Freddy Garcia last year when the White Sox sent him to the Phillies for highly touted pitching prospects Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez.

Many Mariner fans are wondering about the possibility of the Mariners bringing back Garcia, a fan-favorite during his years in Seattle. Will it happen this offseason? Probably not, thankfully. According to the New York Daily News, Garcia "should be ready to pitch by midseason, perhaps as early as June." Garcia's agent confirmed that diagnosis and discussed the alternative of Garcia not signing a contract until he's healthy;

"If something is right at the winter meetings, maybe he'll sign or maybe he'll wait and maybe make more money. He'd be a guy for the second half. Contenders are looking for pitching around that time and you wouldn't have to trade for it then. If we did a showcase and we reached a deal, we'd let a team do a physical and do a Roger Clemens, a prorated deal for that season plus any extra years."

In my opinion, the only way the Mariners should pursue Garcia is if he remains a free agent into the middle of the season and if the Mariners' fate is still in their hands at that time. Signing a starting pitcher in the dark while his health is uncertain and his ability is jeopardized by his injury is extremely risky, especially for a player of his caliber. So when it comes down to it, I'd rather see a lump of coal under the Christmas tree than Freddy Garcia; atleast you can use the coal. He could make a nice graduation present though...

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2007/11/24/2007-11-24_mets_interested_in_freddy_garcia.html

Thursday Quote: Thanksgiving

I take todays quote from a 20th century American humorist by the name of Erma Bombeck.

"Thanksgiving dinners take eighteen hours to prepare. They are consumed in twelve minutes. Half-times take twelve minutes. This is not coincidence."

So even though this is a blog about baseball, I want everyone to realize the importance of Thanksgiving and what you must do today. There are three things:

1-Give thanks: Share the love people! If you're thankful for someone or something, say so.

2-Eat a ridiculously large amount of food: The laws of supply and demand say that if there is a lot of something available, TAKE IT! Well, they don't actually say that but it is a good concept.

3-Watch football: As Erma Bombeck said, football and thanksgiving are meant to go together. So today, don't worry about our division rival signing one of the best available free agents to a huge contract, just relax and watch some good ole' football.

*Note: Numbers 2 and 3 are best when done simultaneously!

Green Bay Packers (9-1) @ Detroit Lions (6-4) -- 12:30 pm EST / 9:30 pm WST -- I'm takin' the Packers 31-21

New York Jets (2-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (9-1) -- 4:15 pm EST / 1:15 pm WST -- I'm takin' the 'Boys 28-13

Indianapolis Colts (8-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-8) -- 8:15 pm EST / 5:15 pm WST -- I'm takin' the Colts 34-10

Angels Feast on Prime Free Agent

On a day where the theme is giving, the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim) have gotten into the spirit by giving stud free agent centerfielder Torri "Highlight Reel" Hunter the gravy in the form of a fat 5 year contract estimated to be anywhere from 80 to 90 mil. This is certainly the biggest splash of the offseason so far, especially since nobody saw it coming. Hunter said that even he was surprised to learn just a few days ago that the Angels were interested.

So what does this deal mean? Well, it means that the Angels are by far the best team in the AL West after adding Jon Garland and now Torri Hunter, both in the last week. It means that they're team is now better than they were last year when they won the division. Even if the Angels stop making moves now and go into next season with what they have, they will be extremely tough to beat. But if you think new GM Tony Reagins is about to go cold turkey, think again. The offseason has just begun and already there are rumors that the Angels excess talent will allow them to make a trade with the Marlins for superstar third baseman Miguel Cabrera. Names like Juan Rivera, Reggie Willits, and Casey Kotchman may come up in the coming weeks as likely candidates to be shipped off to hell, I mean Florida, if a Cabrera deal gains momentum.

So the Angels have made the first move. If it would have been the Yankees, the Redsox would be next to land a marquee name. Seattle GM Bill Bavasi needs to, has to, MUST do something soon. We can't wait until the end of the offseason to pick on everyone's leftovers. I don't know what Bavasi is brewing up, but I do know this: If the Angels trade for Miguel Cabrera, hopes of the Mariners being AL West champs in 2008 are as good as gone.