Igawa's Name Surfacing Again

mlbtraderumors.com has listed the Mariners as a team who may have interest in trading for the disgruntled Yankee. Should Kuroda sign elsewhere, the Mariners may look to deal for Igawa since he is extremely inexpensive as far as contracts go (owed 4 mil a year thru 2011) and will probably not cost a lot on the market due to his struggles thus far in the states coupled with the fact that the Yankees don't have a rotation spot available for him. If he is unsuccessful, we can simply do what the Yankees did, demote him to the minors. Four million dollars a year is miniscule compared to what other guys are making and he could potentially be a diamond in the rough who just hasn't been in the right situation to thrive in New York. The chances of the Mariners having two Japanese starters in the rotation next year are slim, so I expect a deal would only be considered if Kuroda signs elsewhere.

Speaking of Kuroda, he recently said that he has not made a decision yet and has to carefully think about his future.

Thursday Quote: Creating a Better Future

This week, I'm drawing from the wisdom of futurist John Renesch.

"There's no reason people who work have to be resigned to situations and endure circumstances when we all possess the power to create better futures."

As Dustin mentioned earlier, there has been a lot of discussion about what exactly the future of the Mariners should be. Do we keep our top prospects with the hopes that they live up to our expectations or do we let them go and guarantee that we'll have the best pitcher in baseball for the next four or five years. To be honest with you, I'm not really sure. There are definitely some pro's and con's to each option that must be weighed before making a judgement. Whatever decision management makes in the end, there are going to be a great deal of fans who disagree. The good thing about the situation right now is that we are atleast involved in the Johan Santana talks. If anything, it shows initative and recognition of the fact that we have a gaping hole that we need to fill. As Renesch said, we all have the ability to brighten our future. We all have the ability to decide what we have in store for the future instead of succumbing to what the future has in store for us. Let's just hope that what ever decision is made, it is made for the right reasons...

Why Clement, Jones and Morrow are Tradeable

People are putting a price on winning. "We are trading away too much and his contract is too heavy to afford." That is all I've heard.

I can't believe you people are willing to just give up on the best pitcher on the planet. Simple as that. We cannot win with our rotation. Jones is still a work in progress, and I still don't see him becoming a full-fledged superstar, Morrow is another HUGE work in progress and Clement is stuck in a spot where his playing time will be limited. I'll summarize my point once again.

Morrow - Morrow does not have what it takes to be a starter, yet. It will take time. He pitched 3, 4 innings max in a game this year, and he started to get hit hard later it seemed. He was totally inconsistent throughout the year. If we push him to start, he's going to get shelled early and often. All he is, is a pitcher who throws hard. Worst, he's right handed. A right handed guy who can only throw his fastball is worthless in the rotation. If we move him to the bullpen, he won't be as effective. He could, in theory be a dominant closer in the future. He only needs to throw his fastball, change-up and occasional breaking ball. He has the making of a DOMINANT closer. Problem? We have Putz. We don't need Morrow.

Clement - He is stuck. He won't get much playing time. Johjima is going to be the starting catcher. His CS% was the highest among regular, full time catchers and he is a gold glove caliber catcher. You could argue that he should have won it this year. Clement won't get time at DH since we have the ever-consistent Vidro at DH anchoring the line-up with a .300 average all year. He can't be moved to first since we are stuck with that lard 1st baseman Sexson. As of now, Sexson isn't being put out on the market, so for now, 1st base is his. So Clement will see sporatic playing time between catching Johjima in the days off, assuming Burke is still with the team. He won't get time at 1st because we still have Broussard who needs more playing time, and will get it when Sexson has his days off. DH won't be Clements because we have Ibanez and Vidro as the top two cantidates starting in the DH slot, most likely in a platoon.

Jones - I'm stuck here. I want to see him live out his potential and his hype, but he just isn't impressive. His career average, as of the last game of the season, is only a mere .230. That is nothing, at all. He has 3 home runes and only 12 RBIs in 73 games. 32 hits in a total of 73 games. He is just not impressive. He has also made 5 errors in his 73 games. That is about 12 or 13 errors a year, in a 162 game season. That is pathetic.

We don't need this. There is nothing that jumps out at me saying, "Hey, Bavasi, don't trade our future!" We could use Johan, who is still 28, a lot more than we can use our undeveloped and unfulfilled "future" and hype.

Pursuit of Johan Santana

Introduction:
So as we should all know, the Mariners are still in the running for landing Johan Santana. Now, let's get past the obvious, it is going to cost some serious money. However, let's think about this. The Mariners are in desperate need of an upgrade in their rotation, and what better way to start than by getting the best pitcher on the planet?

Numbers:
Santana is a winner. In his 4 full seasons as a starter Santana is 70-32, with an average ERA in those 4 season that is an astounding 2.89. Those are unheard of. Let's delve further into the stats. His total strikeouts in that 4 year run total 983, compared to just 198 walks. People, that is almost a 5 K/BB ratio. For a power pitcher, that is rediculous. We haven't seen numbers like those since Pedro Martinez's run with the Boston Red Sox. His years there, he was Cy Young. Johan Santana has won 2 of the last 4 Cy Young Awards. In the crunch, he is even better. In the last 4 season he has a Post-All Star record of 36-14. Coincidence: The Mariners fold in the 2nd half every team our name has a playoff lable on it!

Intangibles:
Safeco Field would be the perfect fit for Santana. Safeco Field favors the left handed pitcher, well, even pitchers in general. However, the left hander is dominant in Safeco. Johan, is a dominant left handed pitcher. Love? Next, and maybe less of Santana and more of his catcher, but in his 4 years as starter, Santana has allowed 20 stolen bases, and 22 men have been caught stealing. Yes, over 50% of base runners have been caught during his full time starting tenure. One less man on base is one less runner and one less potential run. Next, Santana is a workhorse. In those 4 years as the starter in Minnesota, Santana has logged 912.1 innings, or 228 innings per year. That averages out at about 7 innings per game, also. The sooner we can get the ball from Santana to Putz, the better chance we have at winning.

The Price:
It is reported that he is seeking 5 years and $126 million. Yeah, I won't lie, that is a lot of money. However, let us think about this. The numbers have already shown you what he can do. Here is the real question: How badly to the Mariners want to win and what is the price of winning? To me, the price of winning is $126 million. Yes, Johan Santana is worth every penny. He has been the most dominant pitcher in the last 4 years, and you can argue 5 (he began starting about half way through 2003, but didn't hold onto a full time spot until 2004.) Santana is a once in a decade, one in a career (front office career) type offer.

The price isn't limited to money. The Twins have outlined that they would like Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Jeff Clement. To some people, this may seem like too much to trade away. I however, say it is would be worth it. Let's look at this: None of them are nowhere as proven in the MLB as Santana.

Adam Jones has struggled in his two stints with the big club, and struggled mightily. He has been extremely unsuccessful at the plate, showing little discipline, and has struggled to use his power. In the field, I don't know what is going on. He's supposed to be great, but he's been making routine plays seem like highlight reel catches. He has been compared to the greatest Mariner ever, Ken Griffey Jr. That is setting him up for failure. Not to mention, Torri Hunter just left the Twins, so center is wide open for Adam Jones to take over.

Brandon Morrow has seen time, has been demoted, promoted, and anything in between. He has struggled with his control, and is about as streaky as they come. I don't know what they would do with Morrow, meaning, I don't know if they would keep him in the bullpen or convert him to the starting rotation, but either way, they gain an electric arm.

Jeff Clement has never really rubbed me right until his September callup. When McLaren went nuts with playing the Rainiers against the MLB I thought he was stupid. I saw Clement's numbers [in AAA] and thought he would die. He proved me wrong. I saw both of his home runs at Safeco, and he looked extremely impressive. With the possibility of Joe Mauer being moved to an every day spot to save his knees, Clement would fit in perfect in Minnesota.

Outside Sources:
Buster Olney (of ESPN) posted a blog (Insider: Free, recently made "unfree") saying that a Santana trade seems impossible. The impossible factor was the money. Nobody is sure whether or not the Twins will be able to resign Santana. If resigned then traded, that will save money. (IE - Carlos Zambrano, who could command more money than Santana.) If not resigned by Santana, that is where it gets insanely disgusting. He could run up the table more. His $126 million was his Twins counter-offer. On an open market, he's free game.

Larry Larue (of The Tacoma News Tribune) posted a article on the money aspect of free agency and trades. He referenced Santana and the money he commanded. He said, "The Mariners and a half-dozen other teams still have interest in trading for Santana, but each of them took a large gulp after hearing that figure. Now, to obtain Santana it will take a package of ready-for-prime-time talent – and $126 million." The Mariners fit every checkmark. First, we have been mentioned in the running. Second, we have ready-for-prime time talent. All three guys have seen time in the MLB. Finally, the money. Okay, don't get me wrong, it will cost us. But, is there a price on winning? We are owned by Nintendo, so, if we are ever short on money, we can take a loan from the only gaming system currently making money. Coincidence? I only hope.

Finale:
Now, here is what I really mean. I want Johan Santana. I want somebody to teach Felix how to pitch, and a Johan/Felix 1-2 punch would be a top-of-the-line rotation. I am in love with the guy on the mound. He is putting on one of the most dominant runs in baseball in the last 30 years. He has been lights out and consistent, about as good as it comes.

My Summary
I want Johan Santana.

Another Opinion; (An Opposition To Johan):
Fellow learned blogger, Jon:
http://theseattlemariners.blogspot.com/2007/11/cost-of-johan-santana.html

Sources:
Johan Santana stats:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4280
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4280

Tacoma News Tribune:
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/212490.html

Miscellaneous:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3121887

Hot Stove: 11/25/07

-Randy Wolf, possibly one of the better free agent pitchers out there, has received a contract offer from the Philadelphia Phillies. Wolf pitched for the Phillies before signing a contract for his favorite team growing up, the Dodgers, in a injury plagued season in 2007. Delaware Online reports that Wolf often watched Phillies games while with the Dodgers, kept in contact with Phillies players and the "Wolf pack" who cheered him on from the upper deck at Citizens Bank Park. In my opinion, all signs point to him rejoining the Phillies so cross Wolf off the Mariners list (if he was there in the first place).

-Delaware Online has also reported that the Phillies have offered Hiroki Kuroda a contract. They do recognize that it is a long shot and that Seattle is probably the top contender for his services. Something I didn't know, Kuroda's agent, Joe Urbon, is based in Seattle.

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071125/SPORTS01/711250386/1021

Kuroda Film

Tonight, I decided to take a look at some film of the much-talked-about future (hopefully) Mariner Hiroki Kuroda pitching for the Hiroshima Carp. There have been some rumors that his fastball can hit 96 mph but I'm not believing them after the film I've watched. I watched him throw about fifteen pitches and here is what I saw:

• An average fastball that ranged from 89 to 92
• An average to good slider that ranged from 76 to 81
• An average to good forkball that was consistently around 86
• Good control, good composure
• A slightly staggered but not so funky windup

He's everything I thought he'd be. Hopefully his meetings with Bavasi and McLaren went well

A couple videos of Kuroda pitching:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=r6QhfHMxWPA

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ZycHPwbcuHQ

Fred Claus

As the hot stove continues to burn away, general managers will surely focus first on getting a nice Christmas gift in the form of a starting pitcher for their respective teams. While the offseason seas are relatively quiet with only a couple marquee players being reeled in, the inevitable frenzy is bound to have general managers scrambling around like Arnold Schwarzenegger in Jingle All the Way. One of the big starting pitcher prizes this year is former Mariner Freddy Garcia who finished out a three year contract as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies last year. His season was a short one due to a shoulder injury that required surgery on his labrum and rotator cuff. Garcia's agent, Peter Greenberg, said that the Mets have shown "considerable interest" in Garcia as well as some other teams. The Mets just missed out on Freddy Garcia last year when the White Sox sent him to the Phillies for highly touted pitching prospects Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez.

Many Mariner fans are wondering about the possibility of the Mariners bringing back Garcia, a fan-favorite during his years in Seattle. Will it happen this offseason? Probably not, thankfully. According to the New York Daily News, Garcia "should be ready to pitch by midseason, perhaps as early as June." Garcia's agent confirmed that diagnosis and discussed the alternative of Garcia not signing a contract until he's healthy;

"If something is right at the winter meetings, maybe he'll sign or maybe he'll wait and maybe make more money. He'd be a guy for the second half. Contenders are looking for pitching around that time and you wouldn't have to trade for it then. If we did a showcase and we reached a deal, we'd let a team do a physical and do a Roger Clemens, a prorated deal for that season plus any extra years."

In my opinion, the only way the Mariners should pursue Garcia is if he remains a free agent into the middle of the season and if the Mariners' fate is still in their hands at that time. Signing a starting pitcher in the dark while his health is uncertain and his ability is jeopardized by his injury is extremely risky, especially for a player of his caliber. So when it comes down to it, I'd rather see a lump of coal under the Christmas tree than Freddy Garcia; atleast you can use the coal. He could make a nice graduation present though...

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2007/11/24/2007-11-24_mets_interested_in_freddy_garcia.html

Thursday Quote: Thanksgiving

I take todays quote from a 20th century American humorist by the name of Erma Bombeck.

"Thanksgiving dinners take eighteen hours to prepare. They are consumed in twelve minutes. Half-times take twelve minutes. This is not coincidence."

So even though this is a blog about baseball, I want everyone to realize the importance of Thanksgiving and what you must do today. There are three things:

1-Give thanks: Share the love people! If you're thankful for someone or something, say so.

2-Eat a ridiculously large amount of food: The laws of supply and demand say that if there is a lot of something available, TAKE IT! Well, they don't actually say that but it is a good concept.

3-Watch football: As Erma Bombeck said, football and thanksgiving are meant to go together. So today, don't worry about our division rival signing one of the best available free agents to a huge contract, just relax and watch some good ole' football.

*Note: Numbers 2 and 3 are best when done simultaneously!

Green Bay Packers (9-1) @ Detroit Lions (6-4) -- 12:30 pm EST / 9:30 pm WST -- I'm takin' the Packers 31-21

New York Jets (2-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (9-1) -- 4:15 pm EST / 1:15 pm WST -- I'm takin' the 'Boys 28-13

Indianapolis Colts (8-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-8) -- 8:15 pm EST / 5:15 pm WST -- I'm takin' the Colts 34-10

Angels Feast on Prime Free Agent

On a day where the theme is giving, the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim) have gotten into the spirit by giving stud free agent centerfielder Torri "Highlight Reel" Hunter the gravy in the form of a fat 5 year contract estimated to be anywhere from 80 to 90 mil. This is certainly the biggest splash of the offseason so far, especially since nobody saw it coming. Hunter said that even he was surprised to learn just a few days ago that the Angels were interested.

So what does this deal mean? Well, it means that the Angels are by far the best team in the AL West after adding Jon Garland and now Torri Hunter, both in the last week. It means that they're team is now better than they were last year when they won the division. Even if the Angels stop making moves now and go into next season with what they have, they will be extremely tough to beat. But if you think new GM Tony Reagins is about to go cold turkey, think again. The offseason has just begun and already there are rumors that the Angels excess talent will allow them to make a trade with the Marlins for superstar third baseman Miguel Cabrera. Names like Juan Rivera, Reggie Willits, and Casey Kotchman may come up in the coming weeks as likely candidates to be shipped off to hell, I mean Florida, if a Cabrera deal gains momentum.

So the Angels have made the first move. If it would have been the Yankees, the Redsox would be next to land a marquee name. Seattle GM Bill Bavasi needs to, has to, MUST do something soon. We can't wait until the end of the offseason to pick on everyone's leftovers. I don't know what Bavasi is brewing up, but I do know this: If the Angels trade for Miguel Cabrera, hopes of the Mariners being AL West champs in 2008 are as good as gone.

Hiroki Kuroda

According to the Tacoma News Tribune, Seattle is actively pursueing Hiroki Kuroda, a 32 year old starter from Japan. In his 11 year career he has amassed 103 wins and 89 losses. His last 3 seasons have been far more successful, posting a 40 win - 26 loss record. He is reported to have a mid-90s fastball, a forkball and a slider (all above-average).

Since he has been playing professional for over 10 years he does not require a posting fee. This is very nice for us since we will not be wasting plenty of money on the posting fee alone.

It is reported that he is leaning towards a west coast team, and perfers west coast teams. The Mariners have a huge advantage having Ichiro and Johjima to sway him towards the Mariners.

Other teams interested in Kuroda are the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers and the Rangers.


Source: http://seattlemariners.com

Free Agent SP Rankings

Dustin and I have compiled this list of starting pitchers who will be free agents in the offseason and have ranked who we think are the top 13.

1. Freddy Garcia

P: Though 05 and 06 for Garcia in Chicago were only mediocre, he has still shown to be a very consistent pitcher throughout his career. In the eight seasons prior to 2007, Garcia's era hasn't been over 4.53 in 2006 and has been as low as 3.05 in the M's magical year of 2001. His career K:BB ratio is 2.23 : 1, a very solid mark. Though he has been hurt for most of this season, I expect this 31 year-old to have a 2008 that falls in line with his consistent track record.

D: I loved Freddy when he was with Seattle. He logged 76 wins to 50 losses. A career 4.07 ERA, which would most likely be lower had he stayed with the Mariners, instead of moving to hitter friendly US Cellular Field in Chicago where his ERA was above 4.50 for most of his time there. Now, its at an unhealthy 5.90. I am all for Freddy, and I believe he'll be fairly cheap.

2. Livan Hernandez

P: There is something about Livan Hernandez that has always told me to either draft him in fantasy leagues as a sleeper or to pick him up in free agency. At 32 years-old, he is a tremendous workhorse and will always rack up a ton of innings. With a winning ballclub, that means a lot of wins. His K's to walks have never really been impressive, and it is a slight concern. At the end of the day, he gets the job done.

D: An innings eater. He led the NL in innings pitched from 2003-2005. He also has an amazing glove for a pitcher, only committing 11 errors in his long, long career. He would eat innings and shave the innings pitched by the bullpen, which is something like 3rd most in the AL. I've wanted him for quite some time, and I believe he will come cheap due to age.

3. Randy Wolf

P: Wolf is well-past his two short glory years with the Phillies in 01 and 02; the only two seasons where his era ended at under 4.00. He is an injury risk, but when healthy he can be a decent number 4 guy.

D: Incredible risk. He could command money, and he might also be worth it, if he can stay healthy. That is a HUGE if though. He hasn't started more than 23 games in the last 4 years, and this year won't break that trend. With a career 4.26 ERA he looks like a "get 'em if he's still there" guy, but he's only had 3 full MLB years since coming up in 1999. I'd pass on him except for the the little stat of G/F. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher. His career mark is .89, compared to Washburn's .78. They aren't vastly different.

4. Carlos Silva

5. Kenny Rogers

6. Paul Byrd

7. Odalis Perez

8. Bartolo Colon

9. Joel Pineiro

10 Wade Miller

11. Jon Lieber

12. Matt Clement

13. Kris Benson


Did dot make top 13: Shawn Chacon, Scott Elarton, Josh Fogg, Casey Fossum, Jason Jennings, Brian Lawrence, Kyle Lohse, Rodrigo Lopez, Eric Milton, Julian Tavarez, Brett Tomko, Kip Wells, Jaret Wright, Victor Zambrano