Introduction:
So as we should all know, the Mariners are still in the running for landing Johan Santana. Now, let's get past the obvious, it is going to cost some serious money. However, let's think about this. The Mariners are in desperate need of an upgrade in their rotation, and what better way to start than by getting the best pitcher on the planet?
Numbers:
Santana is a winner. In his 4 full seasons as a starter Santana is 70-32, with an average ERA in those 4 season that is an astounding 2.89. Those are unheard of. Let's delve further into the stats. His total strikeouts in that 4 year run total 983, compared to just 198 walks. People, that is almost a 5 K/BB ratio. For a power pitcher, that is rediculous. We haven't seen numbers like those since Pedro Martinez's run with the Boston Red Sox. His years there, he was Cy Young. Johan Santana has won 2 of the last 4 Cy Young Awards. In the crunch, he is even better. In the last 4 season he has a Post-All Star record of 36-14. Coincidence: The Mariners fold in the 2nd half every team our name has a playoff lable on it!
Intangibles:
Safeco Field would be the perfect fit for Santana. Safeco Field favors the left handed pitcher, well, even pitchers in general. However, the left hander is dominant in Safeco. Johan, is a dominant left handed pitcher. Love? Next, and maybe less of Santana and more of his catcher, but in his 4 years as starter, Santana has allowed 20 stolen bases, and 22 men have been caught stealing. Yes, over 50% of base runners have been caught during his full time starting tenure. One less man on base is one less runner and one less potential run. Next, Santana is a workhorse. In those 4 years as the starter in Minnesota, Santana has logged 912.1 innings, or 228 innings per year. That averages out at about 7 innings per game, also. The sooner we can get the ball from Santana to Putz, the better chance we have at winning.
The Price:
It is reported that he is seeking 5 years and $126 million. Yeah, I won't lie, that is a lot of money. However, let us think about this. The numbers have already shown you what he can do. Here is the real question: How badly to the Mariners want to win and what is the price of winning? To me, the price of winning is $126 million. Yes, Johan Santana is worth every penny. He has been the most dominant pitcher in the last 4 years, and you can argue 5 (he began starting about half way through 2003, but didn't hold onto a full time spot until 2004.) Santana is a once in a decade, one in a career (front office career) type offer.
The price isn't limited to money. The Twins have outlined that they would like Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Jeff Clement. To some people, this may seem like too much to trade away. I however, say it is would be worth it. Let's look at this: None of them are nowhere as proven in the MLB as Santana.
Adam Jones has struggled in his two stints with the big club, and struggled mightily. He has been extremely unsuccessful at the plate, showing little discipline, and has struggled to use his power. In the field, I don't know what is going on. He's supposed to be great, but he's been making routine plays seem like highlight reel catches. He has been compared to the greatest Mariner ever, Ken Griffey Jr. That is setting him up for failure. Not to mention, Torri Hunter just left the Twins, so center is wide open for Adam Jones to take over.
Brandon Morrow has seen time, has been demoted, promoted, and anything in between. He has struggled with his control, and is about as streaky as they come. I don't know what they would do with Morrow, meaning, I don't know if they would keep him in the bullpen or convert him to the starting rotation, but either way, they gain an electric arm.
Jeff Clement has never really rubbed me right until his September callup. When McLaren went nuts with playing the Rainiers against the MLB I thought he was stupid. I saw Clement's numbers [in AAA] and thought he would die. He proved me wrong. I saw both of his home runs at Safeco, and he looked extremely impressive. With the possibility of Joe Mauer being moved to an every day spot to save his knees, Clement would fit in perfect in Minnesota.
Outside Sources:
Buster Olney (of ESPN) posted a blog (Insider: Free, recently made "unfree") saying that a Santana trade seems impossible. The impossible factor was the money. Nobody is sure whether or not the Twins will be able to resign Santana. If resigned then traded, that will save money. (IE - Carlos Zambrano, who could command more money than Santana.) If not resigned by Santana, that is where it gets insanely disgusting. He could run up the table more. His $126 million was his Twins counter-offer. On an open market, he's free game.
Larry Larue (of The Tacoma News Tribune) posted a article on the money aspect of free agency and trades. He referenced Santana and the money he commanded. He said, "The Mariners and a half-dozen other teams still have interest in trading for Santana, but each of them took a large gulp after hearing that figure. Now, to obtain Santana it will take a package of ready-for-prime-time talent – and $126 million." The Mariners fit every checkmark. First, we have been mentioned in the running. Second, we have ready-for-prime time talent. All three guys have seen time in the MLB. Finally, the money. Okay, don't get me wrong, it will cost us. But, is there a price on winning? We are owned by Nintendo, so, if we are ever short on money, we can take a loan from the only gaming system currently making money. Coincidence? I only hope.
Finale:
Now, here is what I really mean. I want Johan Santana. I want somebody to teach Felix how to pitch, and a Johan/Felix 1-2 punch would be a top-of-the-line rotation. I am in love with the guy on the mound. He is putting on one of the most dominant runs in baseball in the last 30 years. He has been lights out and consistent, about as good as it comes.
My Summary
I want Johan Santana.
Another Opinion; (An Opposition To Johan):
Fellow learned blogger, Jon:
http://theseattlemariners.blogspot.com/2007/11/cost-of-johan-santana.html
Sources:
Johan Santana stats:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4280
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4280
Tacoma News Tribune:
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/212490.html
Miscellaneous:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3121887
11/26/07
Pursuit of Johan Santana
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11 comments:
I wouldn't go as far as saying I was opposing the aquisition of Johan Santana. My blog does favor staying out of it, but my personal opinion is somewhat undecided. Like I said in the blog, I wouldnt be disappointed if it happened.
I would be all for this trade if you could somehow keep Jeff Clement, because as i state in another blog it is much easier to find a player of Jones' caliber than Clement's. Cathers are hard to come by.
I must have misunderstood your statements then. However, you are the first person I've ever seen agree with me that Jones is easier to replace than Clement.
Jones, Clement and Morrow is simply too much...Those are three guys that could be cornerstones of the Mariners future in my opinion (I think we should move Clement to first)...Despite how some people seem to feel about Morrow I loved what I saw out of him last year (at times he was untouchable despite his control problems, fix his control problems and he may someday be BETTER THAN SANTANA)...Clement is the type of guy that I think could be an anchor at the 4 or 5 spot in the lineup for the next 10 to 15 years...and Jones, well, I'm not as high on him as I once was but I still think he could be the next face of the Mariner franchise...I just don't think 3 guys who could potentially become franchise cornerstones and help the Mariners win for years to come is worth a player who is only going to take the mound every 5 days...Santana is great but I think we could build a top quality rotation around Felix and Morrow in the years to come...
We can say all we want, but I don't think the Mariners will pull this trade off. None of the major writers have the Mariners in the competition for Johan, and Bavasi appears focused on Kuroda. We should be able to beef up our rotation in next years FA class.
But who knows..
Jon, every team mentioned is just speculation. We don't know if they are really going to trade him, or if they will keep him this year. No major writer for ESPN is focusing on one team. Two nonbias sites I have visited have the Mariners as one of the most probable trade destinations because what we could offer is what they are looking for.
As for the guy who said Morrow could one day be better than Santana, I think you let too much bias seep through. Santana is a once in 20 years pitcher. Morrow is just a young gun who throws hard and has no control. He's nothing special...
Did Buster Olney link Santana to the Mariners? It was unclear in your post whether he was referring to Seattle or just a trade in general.
It's so lame that you have to be an "Insider" to read Olney's stuff.
Mariner interest just confirmed 5 minutes ago by Sports Illustrated. no details, though.
Jon: The blog I read from Olney was one of those that was a Insider Free Edition for like 2 days then it expires and returns to Insider. So I was able to read it in there. The Tacoma News Tribune also said that the Mariners were in the running, and went one step further by telling us that the Twins had already outlined a deal. There was another ESPN blogger who doesn't run an Insider, I believe it was Stark, who mentioned the Mariners also. So 3, now 4, sources have listed us as in the running. I like!
I desperately want Johan as much as the next guy but I wouldn't trade Jones, Morrow or Clement for him. At least 2 of the 3 will be All-Stars in the next few years and we ALWAYS let those kinds of players get away! What about packaging a Vladimir Balentine, Richie Sexon, draft pick and fat wad of cash for Johan?
Boy is Richie Sexon terrible.
No Mr. Anonymous you don't want Santana as bas as the next guy, because the next guy is me.
As for trading Wladimir Balentien, that is a rediculous idea. He has more upside than Jones. Jones, as best, is a Mike Camerson who hits for a higher average. Balentien, at worst, is a level below Manny Ramirez. At best, he is a future Manny Ramirez. He has more discipline and raw power than Jones, and can hit for a higher average because of his ability to draw the walk.
Sexson can't be traded for a top of the line starter, because he is that bad.
Clement and Jones are the only All-Stars of the 3, and I balk at giving Jones that much credit.
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